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Here is how the St. Louis Cardinals lineup would look with Tyler O'Neill in center field
The St. Louis Cardinals lineup would look drastically different with Tyler O'Neill in center field
Spring Training games are finally upon us, and even before the action had begun, the St. Louis Cardinals were making noise about a major competition going on in center field between Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson. In a surprise to many, O'Neill requested to compete for the center field job and has been training there exclusively in camp. Carlson has seemed to rise to the occasion thus far, but there is a very real possibility that he loses his job to O'Neill during camp.
Carlson had a lot going against him during his sophomore season, being unfairly singled out in the Juan Soto rumors and suffering a wrist injury that zapped a lot of his ability at the plate. Coming into Spring Training, Carlson has bulked up, and is even working with some new prescription lenses to help with tracking pitches.
While Carlson should still be favored to be in the Cardinals' starting outfield come Opening Day, the likes of Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, and Juan Yepez will be fighting for those corner spots if O'Neill wins the center field job.
No one can deny that Carlson is a least a high-level player against left-handed pitching, so a platoon role is the "worst" I can see him falling to. But for someone that was a top prospect in all of baseball and has been valued highly by the Cardinals organization, this would be a huge miss for all involved.
Should Carlson lose his starting role here is how it will likely impact the Cardinals' lineup to begin the season.
Cardinals' lineup against right-handed pitching
I broke down different lineup options for the Cardinals recently depending on how they choose to stack up, but O'Neill starting in center field would drastically change a lot of those outlooks. Here is how I would see them stacking up against right-handed pitching.
1. LF Lars Nootbaar 2. CF Tyler O'Neill 3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt 4. 3B Nolan Arenado 5. C Willson Contreras 6. DH Nolan Gorman 7. RF Jordan Walker 8. 2B Brendan Donovan 9. SS Tommy Edman
Should O'Neill win the Opening Day job in center field, I think it is extremely likely that Jordan Walker would win one of the corner outfield jobs as well. Against right-handed pitching, this now becomes a very dangerous order one through nine.
The first seven players in the lineup all boast significant power and can change the game with one swing of the bat. Pitchers will have to navigate very difficult situations when runners are on base, as this lineup can do damage in a hurry. O'Neill bats second here in my opinion, as teams have to go right after him with two MVP-level hitters following him.
With guys like Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman at the bottom of the order, the top five hitters in the Cardinals' order should consistently have guys on base to put even more pressure on opposing teams' pitching.
I could see this lineup being ordered a few other ways, but this makes the most sense to me for creating a dangerous top of the lineup and protection for the middle of it while setting the table for the top of the lineup again with great on-base guys at the bottom.
On rest days for regulars, I would imagine that Gorman goes in to play second and Brendan Donovan would move around the infield or potentially outfield. Juan Yepez or Dylan Carlson could be the next guys into the lineup at that point.
Speaking of Carlson, I do see his role against left-handed pitching still being significant.
Cardinals' lineup against left-handed pitching
The Cardinals' lineup looks dangerous against right-handed pitching, the way they stack up against southpaws is even better on paper.
1. SS Tommy Edman 2. CF Tyler O'Neill 3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt 4. 3B Nolan Arenado 5. C Willson Contreras 6. LF Lars Nootbaar 7. RF Dylan Carlson 8. DH Jordan Walker 9. 2B Brendan Donovan
Edman earns lead-off privileges here as he has a career .829 OPS against left-handed pitching and is an elite stolen base threat that should be capitalized on. Nootbaar slides down to the six-spot to lengthen the lineup and mix in some left-handed power. Carlson has a .869 OPS in his career against lefties, and could even rise to the six-spot himself or higher if that trend continues this year.
I like Carlson in the seven-hole here as the club can get creative late in games. Should a righty be on the mound and they are down in the game, Gorman or Yepez could pinch hit and then they can move guys around defensively. If they are up, they can afford to have a below-average hitter against righties in that spot. Again, I think Carlson will be much improved against right-handed pitching, but we'll see.
Walker needs everyday at-bats, so Gorman ends up heading to the bench and Walker becomes the DH. If the club is concerned about moving Donovan to the outfield late in games as a Carlson replacement, they could even DH Carlson instead of Walker.
While it remains to be seen exactly how the Cardinals' lineup will shape up by the end of March, all of these thought exercises remind me of just how deep this lineup will be in 2023.