Here are the 7 starters the Cardinals need to target to save their rotation for 2024

6. Logan Gilbert

I debated for a bit where Logan Gilbert should end up on this list. Gilbert has a ton of potential and 2024 could be the year he goes from a really good starter to a true top-of-the-rotation talent. The problem for me when it comes to Gilbert remains the price to acquire him.

Now the Cardinals bought low on two starters, they really have no excuse not to spend big on the top guy Outside of the potential that Gilbert has, something that drives up his price point significantly is that he is cost-controlled through the 2027 season. While that is an awesome perk to have, I'm still not convinced it makes it worth trading Nolan Gorman and a massive package for rather than one of the other options available.

There is a ton to like about Gilbert though. In 2023, he went 13-7 with a 3.73 ERA in 190.2 innings of work while striking out 189 batters. In 2022, his ERA was just 3.20 in 32 starts. He's an ascending pitcher in this league, and with the starting rotation depth the Mariners have, it makes sense why they would shop him for young bats.

Outside of the price point though, one of my hesitancies is the Cardinals would be paying a premium for a guy due to his control and potential to be a front-line guy, rather than paying for a guy who is a front-line starter. I'd rather the Cardinals spend their resources, money or trade chips, to acquire someone with the proven talent to start Opening Day, rather than someone they hope continues on the path to that.

Now, if all the top starters are signed and other trades aren't working out, Gilbert becomes a very real target for me, but for now, I see other options that the Cardinals could pursue that keep their lineup intact for 2024.

5. Sonny Gray

It's not a secret that I am a huge Sonny Gray fan, but unless the Cardinals go out and get two more starters this offseason to top their rotation, I think he would make for an underwhelming splash this offseason.

I think Gray has the talent to top the rotation if needed, but his best role by far is being the second-best starter on this staff. If the Cardinals traded for Dylan Cease or Tyler Glasnow to pair with him, that would make all of the sense in the world. Alone though, this rotatoin just is not good enough.

Again, that is no shot against Gray. He just put up a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts in 2023, finishing second in American League Cy Young voting. Since coming into the league, Gray is 15th in all of baseball in ERA among starters who've thrown 1000 innings. Not only has he been massively underrated throughout his career, 2023 was not a "flash in the pan" when it comes to his most recent seasons. Gray posted a 3.08 ERA in 2022 and is 17th in baseball in ERA since 2019 (better than names like Zach Wheeler, Sandy Alcantara, Blake Snell, George Kirby, Logan Webb, and Luis Castillo).

He's not a flashy big-name starter, but Gray has proven he belongs among the best starters in today's game. Honestly, my main concern with him being the sole front-line guy for this team is his age. I'm confident he'll continue to be a very productive pitcher and a bargain of a contract, but the Cardinals need certainty at the top of their rotation. Gray is a great step in that direction, but they need more to go with him.

If they sign Gray and no one else to pair with him, I'd give this offseason a D grade. Again, that would not be a reflection on how I feel about Gray as a starter but would be reflective of how the Cardinals handled their rotation issues as a whole.

4. Blake Snell

At this point, the Cardinals need to swing high, and Blake Snell would certainly be an example of that.

Coming off his second career Cy Young, Snell is at the top of his game right now. In 2023, Snell posted a 2.25 ERA in 32 starts, striking out 234 batters in 180 innings of work. He's got some of the best strikeout stuff in today's game, and the Cardinals could use that badly.

Now that St. Louis had three innings eaters in Mikolas, Lynn, and Gibson, they can afford to take a swing on a guy like Snell. He may just give them five or six innings each time out, but it'll likely be paired with giving up two or fewer runs almost every time out.

Snell is the kind of guy the Cardinals could lean on in October. He can match up with any pitcher in baseball on any given day, and would truly strike fear in the opponents' hearts.

Outside of the innings issue, the other concern with Snell is whether or not he can maintain his success into his 30s. Snell has had two elite seasons in his career (2018 and 2023), three good years (2016, 2020, and 2022), and three average or not good seasons (2017, 2019, and 2021). He is very open about not being afraid to walk batters and relies on his swing-and-miss stuff to get himself out of jams. If that stuff begins to fade, he could fall off quickly.

Does that scare me? Yes. But the Cardinals have to swing big, so I would have a hard time getting upset with them if they decided to go after someone as talented as Snell. Still, I think there are better options available to them.

3. Dylan Cease

The Chicago White Sox are looking to blow up their roster, and the Cardinals need to be one of the teams most involved in negotiations for Dylan Cease.

Cease has two more years of club control, eats innings, and is a true top-of-the-rotation talent. Unlike Gilbert, Cease showed in 2022 that he can be a Cy Young-type pitcher, and frankly, he just has better stuff as well. Even though Cease had a down 2023 season, his stuff was still there and he still ate a ton of innings.

In a trade for Gilbert, the Mariners are going to want more in return than what the White Sox would get, and it would need to be Major League talent. Chicago may ask for a Gorman or Donovan as the centerpiece of a package, but would likely take top prospects to fill out the package or maybe even as the entire package. I recently created different trade packages that I think the Cardinals could offer the White Sox for Cease.

Cease's low salary for 2024 would also allow the Cardinals to potentially add a Gray, Montgomery, or some other starter who could bolster this rotation in a major way. Like Snell, Cease is someone you do not want to see in October, so grabbing him for the 2024 and 2025 seasons would be a huge win for the Cardinals. If things go well, they can always try to extend Cease as well.

This scenario is feeling more and more likely as the weeks go on, so continue to monitor the White Sox as the offseason unfolds.

2. Tyler Glasnow

Speaking of a scenario that just makes so much sense now, Tyler Glasnow would be an excellent addition to this rotation.

The concern with Glasnow is always around how many starts will he actually give his team in any given season. He just made a career-high 21 starts for the Rays in 2023 and is now entering a contract year. Frankly, I think this will be a major motivating factor for Glasnow to stay on the field and try to earn himself a major payday after this coming season.

Since the Rays want to move off his $25 million salary and he does have injury concerns, his market is going to be very specific, and he is not going to net the Rays a ton in return via trade. That's part of the reason I love this idea, is that the Cardinals can truly use some of their depth pieces to pull this off, and now have a true top-of-the-rotation talent in their club.

If Glasnow misses 10 starts or so, the Cardinals have the innings to cover. Zack Thompson can pick up those starts, and guys like Mikolas, Gibson, and Lynn will continue to give the innings the Cardinals need to keep their bullpen fresh and functioning at a high level.

After the season, if things go great with Glasnow, they can look to extend him and bring him back long-term. If an extension does not happen, they can give him a qualifying offer and either have him come back on a one-year deal or he nets them a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. There really isn't a ton of risk here for St. Louis considering the price point.

Sure, I'd hate if Glasnow misses large chunks of the season, but the assets the Cardinals would have to give up to get him are minor in comparison to the talent he has. And frankly, there is a very real shot he stays healthy and puts together 25-30 starts for the Cardinals. It's time to make the move unless they can pull off a move for the number one guy on this list.

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Oddly enough, I think the chances of the Cardinals signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto from Japan just went up.

Think about it. The Cardinals have swung really low with their first two rotation upgrades. If they truly have the ability to spend this offseason, it would make a ton of sense to invest the rest of their assets into a starter with the pedigree and potential of Yamamoto.

Yamamoto is open to coming to St. Louis, and there are a ton of things that the Cardinals have done over the last calendar year to increase their chances of signing Yamamoto this offseason. While the Cardinals tend to stay away from big-time free-agent moves, there are a lot of reasons to believe Yamamoto appeals to them in a way that most free agents do not.

Being just 25 years old, the Cardinals can sign Yamamoto knowing they have 5-10 years of prime pitching ahead of them. Yes, there's always a risk of injury, but he truly has the talent to be a top-5 pitcher in baseball and can do so as soon as 2024 and be that guy for them for a decade.

It's hard to put a price on what that can do for the future of this club.

The Cardinals have a pitching development problem, and while they are working toward fixing that long-term, they are still years away from seeing if guys like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, or Cooper Hjerpe can be solutions to their yearly pitching problems. Yamamoto can be the answer both now and for the rest of the decade.

Hopefully, by 2025, the Cardinals do not have to keep signing guys like Mikolas, Matz, Gibson, and Lynn to fill out their rotation each year. Instead, they can have some cost-controlled arms in their rotatoin, allowing them to allocate resources elsewhere on the team (and afford to pay big-time players like a Yamamoto).

I fully expect the Cardinals to be aggressive with going after Yamamoto this offseason. If they put in a competitive offer, it will be up to Yamamoto to decide if he wants to be in St. Louis or on one of the coasts.