Here are the 5 moves Cardinals fans voted should happen this offseason

On Sunday, I shared my perfect offseason blueprint for the St. Louis Cardinals. I feel really good about the group of starting pitchers and relievers I put together for the 2024 Cardinals, but I was very curious as to how Cardinals fans would construct their "perfect offseason".

So I took to Twitter/X to find out.

Over the weekend, I asked Cardinals fans to vote on a number of polls to put together the perfect offseason for St. Louis. I wanted the plan to be aggressive, but also not a fantasy style offseason as well. So in order to do that while still letting Cardinals fans dictate the moves, I set up some parameters for us to work under.

Here were the ground rules we were working under:

1. I proposed different scenarios on Twitter/X, and the winning vote was the move that was made. Each of these moves directly impacted the next move the Cardinals could make, so this isn’t a fantasy land offseason. Spending big money somewhere lessens the money they can spend elsewhere.

2. We’ll be operating with a more optimistic budget, with the maximum amount of payroll they can add for 2024 being $65 million. I landed on this number based on some great reporting by Derrick Goold and under the assumption they are going to come close to a $200m payroll. I also baked in some non-tenders/trades into that $65 million number as well, so the following players I have already decided will not be on the Cardinals roster for 2024

- Tyler O’Neill
- Andrew Knizner
- Dakota Hudson
- Jake Woodford
- John King

(The money freed up by non-tendering each of these names came from MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration projections).

This allowed us to get to that $65m budget number, but it could fluctuate if a player like Tommy Edman is moved via trade. But the beginning assumption was that he'd be on the Opening Day roster.

3. The to-do list is the following…

- Top of the rotation starter
- number 2 starter
- third starter (preferably better than Mikolas/Matz)
- high-leverage reliever
- another reliever, preferably high leverage.

4. At the end, we’ll see how Twitter/X decided to build the 2024 Cardinals.

With all of that in mind, we’ll start by deciding whether or not the Cardinals sign or trade for their number one starter.

Decision #1 - Sign or trade for the number one starter?

The first decision Cardinals' Twitter had to make was not an actual aquisitoin, but it would heavily influence the string of events that was to follow - should the Cardinals sign or trade for their new number one starter?

A couple of caveats here. Everyone feels differently about the free agents and trade targets available this offseason. We all have our own definitions of an ace or front-line starter, and who qualifies for each of them. So for the sake of this conversation, a number one starter is someone who the Cardinals can lean on to lead their rotation throughout a season and in Game 1 of a playoff series.

Signing this starter allows the Cardinals to hold onto their best young talent, but would also require a significant financial investment. Trading for that starter would likely cost less in salary but would require the Cardinals to lose significant assets in the process. So, I left the decision up to Cardinals Twitter.

Fans' decision: Sign the number one starter

So with that decision out of the way, we'll now jump into the first move of the Cardinals' Twitter offseason.

Decisions #3 and #4 - How to acquire the number two starter and who is should be

Like the number one starter, we need to figure out which path the Cardinals will take to acquire their number three starter, so we put that to a vote as well.

Free agency got 59.6% of the vote, so it was time to find some options that qualified as a number two starter with the budget they had remaining. If fans had voted for a trade, some higher-end options like Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, Logan Gilbert, or Shane Bieber could have been on the board, but it would have cost varying levels of impactful pieces from the Cardinals offense or prospect pool.

Option #1 - Shota Imanaga at four years, $52 million ($13 million AAV). Imanaga, like Yamamoto, is coming over from Japan this offseason and has become an intriguing option around the league. He does not have nearly the same ceiling as Yamamoto and is five years older at age 30, but is a lefty who has nice strikeout stuff. The upside is someone who can be a lower-end number two starter but is far more likely a number three at best. Given how much the Cardinals have left to spend though, it's the kind of move they'd need to consider.

Option #2 - Eduardo Rodriguez at five years, $90 million ($18 million AAV). After opting out of his contract with the Detroit Tigers, Rodriguez hits the market as an intriguing left-handed starter who just posted a 3.30 ERA in 26 starts. He's not flashy, but he can provide St. Louis with a playoff-tested lefty who does not have a significant injury history and is just 30 years old.

Option #3 - Sonny Gray at three years, $69 million ($23 million AAV). I debated whether or not I should include Gray as an option here after signing Yamamoto, as the Cardinals' budget took a huge hit there. I still did, as Gray is strongly linked with the Cardinals and feels like the perfect number-two starter. Should the Cardinals sign a guy like Aaron Nola or Blake Snell, or trade for their number one starter, Gray feels like a slam dunk move as their number two starter. Yamamoto's large number makes it more difficult to fit Gray, but on just a three-year deal, I think St. Louis can find a way to make it work.

Option #4 - Charlie Morton at one year, $16 million. Morton has been one of the most underrated players in baseball for a long time, consistently providing front-end quality stuff but never being mentioned among the best in the game. He is turning 40 before the 2024 season though, so seems like a pretty big risk that he would remain a quality starter. He's coming off a 30-start season where he posted a 3.64 ERA for the Braves.

Here is what Cardinals fans voted for:

Sonny Gray paired with Yamamoto is an excellent one-two punch for this 2024 club, and it's hard not to be thrilled with this outcome so far. The main downside here is that the Cardinals have now left themselves with about $8.5 million to spend on acquiring another starting pitcher and two relievers, so it looks like we'll be hitting the trade market a few times for the rest of the moves.

Gray is likely going to finish runner up to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting this year after posting a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings of work. He's been one of the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball for a long time now and is massively underrated, giving the Cardinals another excellent starter. The concern with Gray is his age, as he just turned 34 today and you never know how guys will age.

Fans' decision: Sign Sonny Gray for three years, $69 million ($8.5 million budget remaining).

I made the executive decision that the Cardinals need to trade for their number three starter based on the first two contracts we handed out, so that's the next agenda item that fans voted on.

Decision #5 - Trade for a number three starter

Two starters down, one more to go. There are a wide variety of trade options here. One excellent starter who is more like a number two, two younger guys with high-upside but are not quite impact guys yet, and a safer number three option.

Option #1 - Acquire Tarik Skubal from the Detroit Tigers for Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore ($2.6 million AAV). Many people are unaware of Skubal, but he's one of the brightest young starters in today's game. The 26-year-old lefty began the season on the IL but ended up making 15 starts to the tune of a 2.80 ERA with 102 SO in just 80.1 innings of work. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time this season and won't be a free agent until 2027. so he's going to require a massive piece like Gorman to get the Tigers talking.

Option #2 - Acquire Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins for Alec Burleson and Cesar Prieto ($700k). Cabrera really broke out in 2022 for the Marlins, posting a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts with a 137 ERA+ and 9.4 SO/9. Things fell off in 2023, as his BB/9 went up to 6.0, and saw his ERA climb to 4.24 as well. He has electric stuff and could develop into a top-end guy, but he also could just be an erratic back-of-the-rotation starter as well. He doesn't hit arbitration until 2025 or free agency until 2029, so there's a cost-control benefit here as well.

Option #3 - Acquire Bryan Woo and Prelander Berroa from the Seattle Mariners for Brendan Donovan ($1.4 million AAV). The ideal offseason has the Cardinals holding onto their best young position players, but with how little budget they have remaining, they could look to kill two birds with one stone and part with Donovan for two high-upside arms, one for the rotation and one for the bullpen. Woo has the stuff to be a future number two in this league, but right now profiles more like a number four starter. Berrora has the stuff to be a high-leverage guy in the near future but has very little MLB experience.

Option #4 - Acquire Griffin Canning from the Los Angeles Angels for Dylan Carlson and Juan Yepez ($2.5 million AAV). Canning is not a flashy starter by any means but could fill the Cardinals' void ass a number three starter and do so under team control through 2026. He upped his strikeout stuff in the second half of the season and seems ready to take another step forward, and wouldn't require a ton in return to acquire.

With all of these possibilities on the table, Cardinals fans took to the vote.

Cabrera is an intriguing option here, offering that upside and low salary while not having to part with a major piece either. The risk here is that he could be nothing more than a flashy number four or five starter, but even that's not bad value here.

Fans' decision: Trade Alec Burleson and Cesar Prieto for Edward Cabrera ($8.5 million remaining in the budget).

Now it's time to turn the attention to the bullpen for the final two moves.

Decisions #6 and #7 - Sign or trade for two high leverage relievers

With approximately $8.5 million remaining in the budget, the Cardinals will have to get creative here with their spending and trades, but it is possible to make two quality additions with what they have remaining.

I won't go into full detail about the following options that you can see for the first reliever acquisition, but they offer a variety of options both in free agency and the trade market. Yuki Matsui is a left-hander from Japan who is heavily linked to the Cardinals, while Emilio Pagan would provide a right-handed option who can close out games if needed, but really provides them with another 7th or 8th-inning option.

On the trade side of things, we stated at the beginning that O'Neill had to be traded to make the money work, so he is going to be involved with a trade for a reliever at some point. Prelander Berrora makes another appearance here, as a low-cost option with six years of team control but does not have the late-inning track record yet. Andrew Nardi is a left-handed reliever from Miami who has been really good for the Marlins and would give St. Louis that second left-handed look late in games.

Fans went the Matsui route here, and I don't blame them. He was the youngest player in Japan to reach 200 career saves, and although he is small and does not throw high-90s, he has a crazy high strikeout rate. He can close games as needed for the Cardinals but really strengthens their late-inning arsenal overall.

Fans' decision - Sign Yuki Matsui for three years, $21 million ($1.5 million remaining in the budget).

Lastly, it's time to trade Tyler O'Neill for a reliever. Berroa and Nardi are once again options here, but two established right-handed relievers join them on this list as well.

James Karinchak has been the set-up man for Guardians' Emmanuel Clase for a few years now and has both incredible strikeout stuff and a high walk rate. He's a bit unpredictable on the mount, but would really bolster what the Cardinals have late in games if they went this route.

For most of Shawn Armstrong's career, he's been a solid option out of the bullpen, but nothing special. Well, in 2023, he posted a 1.38 ERA in 52 innings of work for the Rays. There is a fear here that what the Rays unlocked in Armstrong won't replicate itself in St. Louis, but it's a high-risk option that may be worth taking.

For the final agenda item, Cardinals fans voted to trade O'Neill for James Karinchak, using up the rest of the remaining budget and finally rounding out this roster for 2024.

Fans' decision - Trade Tyler O'Neill for James Karinchak

Let's look at the final roster and I'll give my thoughts on how this went down!

Cardinals' 2024 Opening Day Roster after the fans' voted offseason

After an eventful offseason that included three free agent signings and two trades, here is how this offseason voted for by Cardinals' fans would stack up on paper for Opening Day.

Starting Lineup
LF Lars Nootbaar
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2B Nolan Gorman
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
RF Jordan Walker
DH Brendan Donovan
CF Tommy Edman
SS Masyn Winn

Bench
OF Dylan Carlson
2B/OF Richie Palacios
C Ivan Herrera
1B/DH Luken Baker

Rotation
1. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2. RHP Sonny Gray
3. RHP Edward Cabrera
4. LHP Steven Matz
5. RHP Miles Mikolas

Bullpen
RHP Ryan Helsley
LHP Yuki Matsui
RHP Giovanny Gallegos
RHP James Karinchak
LHP JoJo Romero
RHP Wilking Rodriguez
RHP Andre Pallante
LHP Zack Thompson

I'm really happy with this offseason if I'm the Cardinals. You went out and got the best-starting pitcher available in Yamamoto, a guy who may be able to go toe to toe with anyone in baseball in the near future. Although it was a massive deal, he's just 25 years old, so you're paying him with the assumption that he can be an ace for the next seven years. That's an excellent move in both the short-term and long-term.

Gray provides the Cardinals with a really good number two starter here, and on a short-term deal so they are not pot committed to that $23 million annual salary for a long time. The con with this scenario here is you're putting a lot of pressure on both Gray and Edward Cabrera to fill their roles well, as there is not a lot of wiggle room here. I trust Gray to do so, but Cabrera really is a wild card. He could pitch even better than Gray, or he could fall back in the rotation as more of a number five type starter.

The Cardinals also do well here with their bullpen acquisitions, not spending a ton of money while also only giving up Tyler O'Neill in the process. Now, St. Louis has five guys that they should feel confident in late in ballgames. This is huge, as injuries and down seasons are unpredictable out of the bullpen, so they should be able to weather that storm in the first half and add to the bullpen at the deadline as necessary.

The fact that this was all accomplished without giving up Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, Lars Nootbaar, or Jordan Walker is a huge win for the Cardinals. All of these trades and contracts are just projections, so it's hard to know how realistic they'll end up being in a vacuum, but it feels like the Cardinals capitalized on the money they had to spend and the depth pieces that had value with other organizations.

This is the kind of aggressive offseason the Cardinals need. Even if it's not this path, I expect the Cardinals to go all out this winter to rebuild this pitching staff. Cardinals' fans gave them a pretty good blueprint, now we'll see if they can do something similar.