Have we seen any game management improvement from Cardinals manager Oli Marmol?

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What makes baseball fans the most passionate in all of sports is partly because most played as kids. It started as just kids in the neighborhood getting together, then Little League. Some made the high school team, and some even played college ball. Almost everyone, at one time, went to a game with our dads or moms and cheered for the players we wanted to be.

Today you can turn on the TV and see every game. Satellite radio features several games being played by teams not named Cardinals. If you want to know what the infield fly rule is, Google it and you will find over 100,000 results. We have all become experts in all things related to baseball.

It’s easy to see that the St. Louis Cardinals were bad last year. This year is just as frustrating for the fans. Some think the manager should be fired after every loss because everyone is an expert now. We know when pitchers should face the next batter or be removed from the game. We have our ideas on how the lineup should be or when players should be pinch-hit for and other strategies the manager comes up with.

Fans’ passion can sometimes cloud their judgment with emotions, causing them to overlook facts. I can be guilty of that too, so I spend a lot of time looking for trends and doing deeper dives into the data.

After last season, there were many articles written about the performance of the team and even more about the manager Oliver Marmol. With this season more than one-third complete, have we seen any improvement?

The record is slightly better. After 61 games the Cardinals have won four more games. Last year they were 8 games out of first place and this year they are 6.5.

There were several things I looked at last year to compare Marmol’s performance to the rest of the league. At the end of last season, I took a dive into things managers have some control over. The criteria I used were simple. Since context matters, it wouldn’t be fair to compare the number of stolen bases of a Whitey team to this one. But we could compare this team, this year, to the other 31 teams. We can’t use something like home runs because that isn’t something a manager can call for. He can, however, call for the batter to bunt or hit a sacrifice fly. A manager decides when to change pitchers in a game. Do you let the runner steal a base to get into scoring position?

Team hitting stats under Marmol

Getting on base is not the manager’s job. He is not the hitter or the hitting coach. This is all on the batters. Last year the Cardinals ranked 9th on OBP. This year they have fallen to 21st. Last year the team had the second-best hard-hit rate only behind the Braves. This year, 26th. These are things the manager has no control over. However, once the player does his job, then the manager takes over. The very second the batter’s foot hits the bag, it is at that exact point the manager (through the coach ) should determine how to get that player to cross home plate.

XBT% -- Extra Bases Taken Percentage - In other words, do they stop the runners at first, turning doubles into singles and triples into doubles? You could blame this on the coaches, but the manager is the one that ultimately determines the aggressiveness of the team. Last year: 27th, this year: 25th.

Stolen Bases - More teams are generating runs by stealing. The rule change last year made it much easier. Most teams have a steal sign given to the runner. Last year the Cardinals ranked 23rd. This year: 26th.

Bunts/Sacrifice Flies -How is this manager with moving the runner over? Last year they were 18th in bunts and only 27th in sacrifice flies. This year the Cardinals rank 5th in bunts and 10th in sacrifice flies.

Bases Taken -(Bases advanced on fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, defensive indifference). These are give-me’s that are free. Last year the Cardinals ranked 18th. This year they rank 2nd.

1stS3 — (On First, when a single is hit and the runner reaches third or scores.) The age-old first to third. One of the prettiest plays in baseball. Last year they ranked 23rd. This year 11th.

Pinch Hitting - Last year, they ranked 25th for the number of pinch hits. This year they rank 27th.

Pinch Hit Leverage Index - (The importance of the context in which the Pinch Hitter was used Above one means higher than average pressure. Below one means lower than average pressure. ) Last year pinch hitters were brought into the game in the second highest leverage situations. This year it is the same.

RS% -- Run Scoring Percentage - (Percentage of times a base runner eventually scores a run.) Last year’s rank was 30th. This year 26th.

The Cardinals are about the same in XBT%, stolen bases, pinch-hitting, pinch-hitting leverage index, and run-scoring percentage.

Much better in Bunts, sacrifice flies, bases taken, and going from 1st to 3rd.

Pitching and defense

Pitching

We are constantly being told that the starting pitching is better than last year. The bullpen has been improved and the defense is better. All of those can be debated, but how do the decisions the manager makes affect each of those areas?

Inherited Runners (Number of runners on base when pitcher entered the game.) Last year they ranked 27th. This year 19th.

Games Entered With Bases Empty (Pitcher entered the game with no runners on base) Last year the team was 29th. This year, 21st.

IPmult (Games the pitcher pitched in more than one inning ) Last year the Cardinals ranked last. This year 19th.

These three areas are a tremendous improvement over last year. It looks like the Cardinals have changed the way they are using the bullpen this year. They are bringing in the relievers into games in much lower stressful positions. Not waiting until the bases are loaded. There are also fewer times the reliever has to pitch multiple innings.

Defense

Last year the Cardinals ranked last in Outs Above Average as a team. This year we rank 23rd.

In Defensive Runs Saved they were 20th, this year 15th.

Ultimate Zone Rating in 2023 was 24th and this year they improved to 11th.

Some of the defensive stats could be the players are just better. I believe that an increased focus by the manager and better positioning could be just as important.

Summary

This is what I wrote last September.

“My takeaway from this is most of the stats I cited are about in-game decisions the manager of a baseball team has to make and make at the right time. Half of them are not being made at all and the others are being made at the wrong time. The lack of aggressiveness is worse to me than making the wrong move. At least that would show you are trying.”

I know that to most of the St. Louis fans, this will come as a surprise. After looking at the numbers, it appears that the manager is improving in several areas. Mainly in the way he is moving the runners over, and how the bullpen is being deployed.

Are there still areas of concern? Many. Last year the Cardinals ranked 18th in having their relievers pitch in back-to-back games. This year they are the second most. He still ranks 25th in having his challenges overturned. While there have been improvements, Marmol still isn’t ranking at the top of any categories that managers can be judged on.

Is this enough of an improvement to justify his contract extension? We still have two-thirds of the season to find out.

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Team hitting stats under Marmol

Pitching and defense

Pitching

Defense

Summary

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