Grading the St. Louis Cardinals offseason using 3 different perspectives

It's not often that the St. Louis Cardinals offseason is effectively eight months long.

Since the Cardinals were arguably out of contention in June and officially waved the white flag on the 2023 season in July, all eyes have been on the 2024 for some time now.

There were pretty big expectations set on the club going into the offseason to turn the ship around. Yes, there was plenty of talent already on the roster, but the clear deficiencies on the pitching side of things created a massive to-do list for the Cardinals' front office. They came into the offseason wanting to add three starting pitchers, two established relievers, and some more pitching depth on top of that.

They achieved each of those things, leading to some pretty solid grades from most national outlets:

USA Today: B-

The Athletic: C

FOX Sports: B

While the national outlets seem to rate the Cardinals offseason somewhere between average and good, the feeling around St. Louis seems wide-ranging. Some believe the offseason has been a complete failure and the club is destined to fail again, while others have been really excited about the team they've put together. Most fans fall somewhere in between.

Now that Spring Training games are underway, I wanted to give my final offseason grade for the Cardinals, but I wanted to add two other perspectives as well. While the third grade you'll see here is my overall opinion of the offseason, I thought it was too important to acknowledge two other realities as well.

The first grade I'll give is based on the expectations that many of us had going into the offseason. While some fairly doubted the Cardinals' ability to make splashy moves, they were certainly talking the talk in a way they had before (you can see my points on why their rhetoric was different from prior offseasons here), but they ultimately underwhelmed many of us.

The second grade I gave was based on the constraints that ownership gave the front office. While Bill DeWitt III started the offseason with a promise that they would "climb in the payroll rankings", it became clear as the months went on that the payroll they were giving John Mozeliak to work with was much lower than most of us thought.

And finally, the third grade I'll give is my official grade, the one that factors in all of those realities and grades the Cardinals based on the totality of the offseason, which is a reflection on both ownership and the front office.

Here are my grades based from those perspectives and my official grade for the St. Louis Cardinals' offseason.

Based on payroll constraints: B+

Now here's the second reality. Yes, it's John Mozeliak's job to lobby with ownership to have a higher payroll, but at the end of the day, he cannot control the final number. That's on the Bill DeWitt Jr. to set for the club. And frankly, given the limited budget the Cardinals had compared to what we thought they would be working with, they made quite a bit of moves.

Before I get into payroll numbers, let me preface by saying the Cardinals do not release their official books, so all we really have to work off of with these numbers is great reporting from people who cover the team and the contract details released this offseason.

The Cardinals' Opening Day payroll for 2023 was right around $178 million. As of today, their Opening Day payroll for 2024 sits around $171 million, about a $7 million decrease from last season. While we don't know the exact numbers, it's at least clear that they did not take a major step forward like they indicated they would, and although some of that falls on Mozeliak's shoulders, it's far more likely that this is around the number that ownership gave him to spend this offseason.

The Cardinals' payroll entering the offseason was somewhere between $136 million and $141 million including their projected arbitration numbers. That means Mozeliak has been allowed to spend between $30 million to $35 million this offseason in his pursuit of three starting pitchers, two established relievers, and other pitching depth.

The Cardinals were able to free up some cash by backloading Gray's contract as well as non-tendering and trading away some pieces, but the expectation this offseason is that Mozeliak would have somewhere between $50 million and $70 million to work with and see their payroll somewhere between $185 million and $200 million come Opening Day.

If the front office was given that kind of budget to work with and settled for this kind of offseason, that would be a disaster on the part of Mozeliak. I just highly doubt he decided on his own to spend $20 million to $40 million less than DeWitt allowed him to. Given the constraints the Cardinals' front office was given by ownership, I think they had a really productive offseason.

Again, this is considering the budget that is self-imposed by ownership. This grade is purely looking at the offseason moves with that as the imposed reality, because that's what the front office had to work with. We can talk all day about how ownership needs to spend more, and they do, but unless they say they'll cut the checks, Mozeliak can't spend more than he is given.

So with that in mind, getting one front-line starter and two innings-eating veterans while also overhauling the bullpen with upside arms is a really nice offseason in my opinion. Again, it's less than we were expecting, but if we all came into the offseason knowing that payroll would go down instead of go up, I think we'd be pretty impressed by the haul the front office acquired (again, not defending ownership's spending habits, just giving props to the front office for making something out of the expired lemons they were given).

Actual offseason grade: B-

Overall, all things considered, I would grade the St. Louis Cardinals offseason as a B-.

Given the constraints the front office was given, I thought they did a really nice job addressing a ton of needs with the resources they were given. But as I've already alluded to multiple times, it's a failure on the part of ownership to not be willing to spend big, especially after a disaster season in 2023.

I get that there is uncertainty with the RSN revenue beyond this coming season. I understand that they lost out on some revenue in 2023 based on their poor performance. But you're the St. Louis Cardinals. If there was ever a time to excite the fanbase and spend bigger than you have in recent years, it's when you desperately need to rebound from the mess you found yourself in last season.

The rotation, as unexciting as it is, should be much improved. It's not a top rotation in baseball, but the odds of it being the dumpster fire it was last season are low. The bullpen was a mess in 2023 and now could be one of the better groups in baseball. The offense, though it underperformed last season (particularly in the second half), did not need much attention and the Cardinals are right to expect progression from young talent and some rebound seasons from their cornerstone corner infielders.

The Cardinals had the worst record in the National League Central last year and should now be the favorite to win the division in 2024. I get that winning the NL Central is not something worth bragging about, but increasing their win total from 71 in 2023 to 85-90 wins in 2024 would be no small feat.

And yet, with all of that being said and the very exciting front office additions they made, they can't be much higher than a B- to me because they missed out on acquiring the second most important item on the agenda this offseason - a second front-line starter. Now, the Cardinals never said they were going to get that guy, but we all know it's the difference between them being an NL Central pennant contender and a true contender in the National League.

Sure, maybe they go out and get that guy at the trade deadline, and if they do, the Cardinals can quickly right this wrong. But that will also require a bold move they typically don't make, and after shrinking back from the challenge this offseason, it'll be tough to convince fans they'll step up to the plate if the opportunity arises in July. Sure, they did what they needed to do, but not making that extra move that signals they are truly serious about being a great team now is what continues to frustrate Cardinals Nation.