Grading the St. Louis Cardinals offseason using 3 different perspectives

Based on expectations: C

I was tempted to make this grade even lower, but the way the Cardinals constructed their bullpen as well as some of their front-office additions were too impressive for me to grade them much lower, even with how disappointing the overall rotation rebuild was.

Let's start with the rotation. It always felt like Sonny Gray was going to be a Cardinal, so there was no surprise there. In all honesty, Gray continues to go under the radar amongst many fans with just how good he is. I am a huge fan of the move for him and can't wait to see him on the mound for St. Louis this season. Gray has the potential to put up the best individual season from a Cardinals' starter since Jack Flaherty's electric 2019 run.

But it was the two starting pitchers the Cardinals signed before Gray that really frustrated many who follow the club. While the additions of Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have grown on me and I'll explain so later in my grades, grabbing both of those guys instead of adding another front-line starter to pair with Gray was a massive whiff from the Cardinals. Again, I like what both Lynn and Gibson can provide the Cardinals, but with Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas taking up the other two rotation spots, the Cardinals really needed two of the three starters they acquired to be high upside.

While talks of Yoshinobu Yamamoto were real according to people like Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, the Cardinals ultimately folded from the conversation as the prices skyrocketed. Tyler Glasnow was someone they apparently called about, but the Dodgers gave up a ton of trade capital to acquire him. Talks of a potential Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo trade have continued, but the White Sox and Marlins seem to have their asking prices too high.

Still, other names like Eduardo Rodriguez, Shota Imanaga, and Marcus Stroman were available to sign. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still available. And yet, the Cardinals appear to be done adding to their rotation.

Still, the Cardinals went out and made a lot of really promising additions to their bullpen mix this offseason. Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge are two veteran arms who can play high-leverage roles for the club. Riley O'Brien, Nick Robertson, and Ryan Fernandez have really interesting upsides as well. Many thought the Cardinals may cut corners when it came to bullpen targets, and yet, they seemed to be really aggressive and shrewd with those moves.

That may be at least in part due to the hiring of a new front office advisor, Chaim Bloom, who was a home run move this offseason. Bloom, who was let go from his role running baseball operations for the Red Sox, is one of the most well-respected executives in the game today and was a huge part of building the Rays' pitching development infrastructure, something the Cardinals desperately need to replicate. He's also someone who has a long history of identifying under-the-radar arms, hence why four of the relievers the Cardinals acquired have ties to Bloom in their career.

Bloom may be the heir to Mozeliak's leadership in St. Louis, and that alone may be the best move the Cardinals made this offseason. On top of that, the Cardinals poached an exciting executive on the business side of things from the Toronto Blue Jays and added another advisor to the mix who you may have heard of before, Yadier Molina.

While the overall rotation moves may be closer to a C- or a D+, the bullpen and front office additions are much closer to a B+ or A-. Based on expectations, I have to say this was a pretty average offseason. There was so much more they could have done, but instead, they settled for some safer upgrades.

Based on payroll constraints: B+

Now here's the second reality. Yes, it's John Mozeliak's job to lobby with ownership to have a higher payroll, but at the end of the day, he cannot control the final number. That's on the Bill DeWitt Jr. to set for the club. And frankly, given the limited budget the Cardinals had compared to what we thought they would be working with, they made quite a bit of moves.

Before I get into payroll numbers, let me preface by saying the Cardinals do not release their official books, so all we really have to work off of with these numbers is great reporting from people who cover the team and the contract details released this offseason.

The Cardinals' Opening Day payroll for 2023 was right around $178 million. As of today, their Opening Day payroll for 2024 sits around $171 million, about a $7 million decrease from last season. While we don't know the exact numbers, it's at least clear that they did not take a major step forward like they indicated they would, and although some of that falls on Mozeliak's shoulders, it's far more likely that this is around the number that ownership gave him to spend this offseason.

The Cardinals' payroll entering the offseason was somewhere between $136 million and $141 million including their projected arbitration numbers. That means Mozeliak has been allowed to spend between $30 million to $35 million this offseason in his pursuit of three starting pitchers, two established relievers, and other pitching depth.

The Cardinals were able to free up some cash by backloading Gray's contract as well as non-tendering and trading away some pieces, but the expectation this offseason is that Mozeliak would have somewhere between $50 million and $70 million to work with and see their payroll somewhere between $185 million and $200 million come Opening Day.

If the front office was given that kind of budget to work with and settled for this kind of offseason, that would be a disaster on the part of Mozeliak. I just highly doubt he decided on his own to spend $20 million to $40 million less than DeWitt allowed him to. Given the constraints the Cardinals' front office was given by ownership, I think they had a really productive offseason.

Again, this is considering the budget that is self-imposed by ownership. This grade is purely looking at the offseason moves with that as the imposed reality, because that's what the front office had to work with. We can talk all day about how ownership needs to spend more, and they do, but unless they say they'll cut the checks, Mozeliak can't spend more than he is given.

So with that in mind, getting one front-line starter and two innings-eating veterans while also overhauling the bullpen with upside arms is a really nice offseason in my opinion. Again, it's less than we were expecting, but if we all came into the offseason knowing that payroll would go down instead of go up, I think we'd be pretty impressed by the haul the front office acquired (again, not defending ownership's spending habits, just giving props to the front office for making something out of the expired lemons they were given).

Actual offseason grade: B-

Overall, all things considered, I would grade the St. Louis Cardinals offseason as a B-.

Given the constraints the front office was given, I thought they did a really nice job addressing a ton of needs with the resources they were given. But as I've already alluded to multiple times, it's a failure on the part of ownership to not be willing to spend big, especially after a disaster season in 2023.

I get that there is uncertainty with the RSN revenue beyond this coming season. I understand that they lost out on some revenue in 2023 based on their poor performance. But you're the St. Louis Cardinals. If there was ever a time to excite the fanbase and spend bigger than you have in recent years, it's when you desperately need to rebound from the mess you found yourself in last season.

The rotation, as unexciting as it is, should be much improved. It's not a top rotation in baseball, but the odds of it being the dumpster fire it was last season are low. The bullpen was a mess in 2023 and now could be one of the better groups in baseball. The offense, though it underperformed last season (particularly in the second half), did not need much attention and the Cardinals are right to expect progression from young talent and some rebound seasons from their cornerstone corner infielders.

The Cardinals had the worst record in the National League Central last year and should now be the favorite to win the division in 2024. I get that winning the NL Central is not something worth bragging about, but increasing their win total from 71 in 2023 to 85-90 wins in 2024 would be no small feat.

And yet, with all of that being said and the very exciting front office additions they made, they can't be much higher than a B- to me because they missed out on acquiring the second most important item on the agenda this offseason - a second front-line starter. Now, the Cardinals never said they were going to get that guy, but we all know it's the difference between them being an NL Central pennant contender and a true contender in the National League.

Sure, maybe they go out and get that guy at the trade deadline, and if they do, the Cardinals can quickly right this wrong. But that will also require a bold move they typically don't make, and after shrinking back from the challenge this offseason, it'll be tough to convince fans they'll step up to the plate if the opportunity arises in July. Sure, they did what they needed to do, but not making that extra move that signals they are truly serious about being a great team now is what continues to frustrate Cardinals Nation.