Grading the St. Louis Cardinals' last 5 first round draft picks

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to pick in the top ten of the MLB Draft tonight for the first time since 1998 when they drafted outfielder J.D. Drew with the the fifth overall pick. Tonight is a huge opportunity for scouting director Randy Flores and the rest of the Cardinals' front office to add a significant prospect to their farm system that could use bolstering.

The Cardinals are typically selecting in the bottom half of the draft each year, so it is really difficult to compare past picks to see what they'll do with their selection tonight. Still, it's worth taking a look at the last five first-round draft selections by the Cardinals' front office to see how their scouting and player development has done in recent years. John Mozeliak recently told a room of bloggers and podcasters that this is a "big" draft for Randy Flores, so the pressure is on him and the scouting department to nail this selection.

Here are grades for the St. Louis Cardinals' last five first round picks

2019 - Zack Thompson

Man on man, looking at the players drafted around Zack Thompson makes you really cringe at the pick, but overall, getting a big leaguer in the first round is not even close to a guarantee, so it's not a bad pick per se.

Still, when you consider the fact that George Kirby was selected with the very next pick, and guys like Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Volpe were drafted not long after Thompson, it's hard to get excited about the selection from the Cardinals.

Thompson made his MLB debut during the 2022 season and was excellent out of the bullpen, posting a 2.08 ERA in 22 outings. While it's fair to say that Thompson should have upside as a reliever long-term, the Cardinals have tried to maximize their selection here by giving him starting opportunities, and it has been a mixed bag, to say the least.

In the second half of 2023, Thompson joined the Cardinals' rotation and had some really encouraging results that caused the Cardinals to allow him to compete with Matthew Liberatore for the sixth starter spot during Spring Training in 2024. When Sonny Gray got injured and Thompson beat out Liberatore, he was able to be in the Cardinals' Opening Day rotation.

But after losing weight this past offseason and seeing his velocity dip dramatically, coupled with losing feel for his pitches, Thompson posted a 9.53 ERA in two starts and three relief outings for the Cardinals, ultimately being sent back down to Memphis where he is continuing to work through his struggles.

Ultimately, it looks to be a fine pick for now, and Thompson could raise that grade if he's able to become a valuable reliever or back-end of the rotation starter. But if we've already seen Thompson's best, this grade will drop further down in the coming years.

Grade: C-

2020 - Jordan Walker

This is a very weird time to grade the Jordan Walker pick. If we were grading this after the 2023 season, it would be a slam dunk A+, no questions asked. But depending on who you talk to now, some people are slamming the panic button regarding Walker and his development.

Let's just take a moment to remember he was drafted just four years ago out of high school and is still just 22 years old. A former top prospect in all of baseball who has already shown the ability to be 20% league average at the Major League level when he was one of the youngest players in the game, I think the Cardinals are still feeling really good about getting Walker with the 21st overall pick.

Walker is no doubt going through it right now at the plate, and it's concerning to see the big-bodied outfielder struggling so much at the Triple-A level after being demoted from St. Louis for the second time in as many seasons. Still, Walker has so much talent, and even if he doesn't reach his 90th percentile outcomes as a player, I'm sure he'll still be a very productive big leaguer, which is a big win for the Cardinals.

Still, you want to see Walker make improvements as soon as possible with his swing selection, ability to lift the ball and maintain his great exit velocities all at the same time. We also need to continue to see Walker improve as an outfield defender, especially if we now have more questions about his bat than we did before.

Looking at the rest of the 2020 MLB Draft, names like Bobby Miller, Jordan Westburg, Jared Jones, Evan Carter, and Spencer Strider all went after Walker in the draft, but it is far too early to tell where Walker will rank among those names. Cardinals' fans also get to celebrate the fact that the club snagged Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, and Tink Hence all in that same draft as well.

If Walker is able to get things back on track, Randy Flores has a historic draft class on his hands. For now, he still aced the pick for me.

Grade: A

2021 - Michael McGreevy

Even at the time of the selection, a lot of Cardinal fans were not thrilled with the Michael McGreevy pick. Another low-ceiling college arm who is pitch-to-contact oriented was not going to get a lot of rave reviews for the Cardinals' front office.

McGreevy is in his second season of Triple-A action this season, and although he could perhaps find himself at the back end of a rotation one day, the 24-year-old seems destined for a bullpen role at best long-term. Over the course of the past two seasons he has spent with the Memphis Redbirds, McGreevy has posted a 4.58 ERA in 42 starts with a below-average strikeout rate, even against minor-league hitting.

McGreevy has been trying to make adjustments to his arsenal to unlock his ability on the mound, but I have little confidence that McGreevy will be one of the pitching prospects the Cardinals rely on long-term, and that is a frustrating statement when he was a first-round pick.

Some names of note who were drafted after McGreevy (who was selected at pick 18) are Colson Montgomery, Jackson Merrill, Connor Norby, Andrew Abbott, Zack Gelof, and James Wood. There were other significant names even further down the class, but at that point, you can easily argue every team missed on those guys multiple times, so it's not worth saying they could've had Mason Miller when he went 97th overall.

This is one of the picks Mozeliak must be referring to when he said that Flores needs to produce in this draft class, as it arguably is one of the worst picks he has made since taking over the draft and scouting side of things.

Grade: D

2023 - Chase Davis

If Hjerpe is hard to grade this early, then grading Chase Davis is nearly impossible.

Davis was drafted by the Cardinals out of the University of Arizona as a power-hitting corner outfielder who looked a lot like former Rockies' slugger Carlos Gonzalez at the plate. Things did not get off to a hot start for Davis in the Cardinals' system, as he slashed just .212/.366/.269 in 131 plate appearances at Single-A. The lack of power, not hitting a single home run in those 34 games, was especially concerning for someone who you dream on the power of.

Davis wasn't particularly productive to begin the 2024 season either, but has gotten into a groove as of late, leading all Cardinals' minor leaguers in OPS, OBP, SLG, XBH, and RBI during the month of June.

Defensively, Davis could play some center field, but it is far more likely he will stick in the corners long-term, and he has the athleticism and arm strength to be a quality defender out there. The Cardinals have had a lot of left-handed bats come through their system lately, but the power Davis has from the left side is really only trumped by Nolan Gorman.

For Davis, production is going to catch our eyes, but the real test will be seeing how his bat-to-ball skills develop over the next few years and if he can continue to translate his power to wood bats. So far, it looks like those shifts are taking place, but he's still just 22 and in the lower levels of the minors, so there's a lot of room to grow. It's hard to grade a guy who has about 400 plate appearances to his name in his career, but so far, it at least looks like an intriguing pick for St. Louis.

Grade: B-