Grading the St. Louis Cardinals' last 5 first round draft picks

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to pick in the top ten of the MLB Draft tonight for the first time since 1998 when they drafted outfielder J.D. Drew with the the fifth overall pick. Tonight is a huge opportunity for scouting director Randy Flores and the rest of the Cardinals' front office to add a significant prospect to their farm system that could use bolstering.

The Cardinals are typically selecting in the bottom half of the draft each year, so it is really difficult to compare past picks to see what they'll do with their selection tonight. Still, it's worth taking a look at the last five first-round draft selections by the Cardinals' front office to see how their scouting and player development has done in recent years. John Mozeliak recently told a room of bloggers and podcasters that this is a "big" draft for Randy Flores, so the pressure is on him and the scouting department to nail this selection.

Here are grades for the St. Louis Cardinals' last five first round picks

2019 - Zack Thompson

Man on man, looking at the players drafted around Zack Thompson makes you really cringe at the pick, but overall, getting a big leaguer in the first round is not even close to a guarantee, so it's not a bad pick per se.

Still, when you consider the fact that George Kirby was selected with the very next pick, and guys like Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Volpe were drafted not long after Thompson, it's hard to get excited about the selection from the Cardinals.

Thompson made his MLB debut during the 2022 season and was excellent out of the bullpen, posting a 2.08 ERA in 22 outings. While it's fair to say that Thompson should have upside as a reliever long-term, the Cardinals have tried to maximize their selection here by giving him starting opportunities, and it has been a mixed bag, to say the least.

In the second half of 2023, Thompson joined the Cardinals' rotation and had some really encouraging results that caused the Cardinals to allow him to compete with Matthew Liberatore for the sixth starter spot during Spring Training in 2024. When Sonny Gray got injured and Thompson beat out Liberatore, he was able to be in the Cardinals' Opening Day rotation.

But after losing weight this past offseason and seeing his velocity dip dramatically, coupled with losing feel for his pitches, Thompson posted a 9.53 ERA in two starts and three relief outings for the Cardinals, ultimately being sent back down to Memphis where he is continuing to work through his struggles.

Ultimately, it looks to be a fine pick for now, and Thompson could raise that grade if he's able to become a valuable reliever or back-end of the rotation starter. But if we've already seen Thompson's best, this grade will drop further down in the coming years.

Grade: C-

2021 - Michael McGreevy

Even at the time of the selection, a lot of Cardinal fans were not thrilled with the Michael McGreevy pick. Another low-ceiling college arm who is pitch-to-contact oriented was not going to get a lot of rave reviews for the Cardinals' front office.

McGreevy is in his second season of Triple-A action this season, and although he could perhaps find himself at the back end of a rotation one day, the 24-year-old seems destined for a bullpen role at best long-term. Over the course of the past two seasons he has spent with the Memphis Redbirds, McGreevy has posted a 4.58 ERA in 42 starts with a below-average strikeout rate, even against minor-league hitting.

McGreevy has been trying to make adjustments to his arsenal to unlock his ability on the mound, but I have little confidence that McGreevy will be one of the pitching prospects the Cardinals rely on long-term, and that is a frustrating statement when he was a first-round pick.

Some names of note who were drafted after McGreevy (who was selected at pick 18) are Colson Montgomery, Jackson Merrill, Connor Norby, Andrew Abbott, Zack Gelof, and James Wood. There were other significant names even further down the class, but at that point, you can easily argue every team missed on those guys multiple times, so it's not worth saying they could've had Mason Miller when he went 97th overall.

This is one of the picks Mozeliak must be referring to when he said that Flores needs to produce in this draft class, as it arguably is one of the worst picks he has made since taking over the draft and scouting side of things.

Grade: D

2022 - Cooper Hjerpe

The last two drafts are not really fair to grade yet. Most players do not make it to the Major Leagues within two years of being drafted, especially now with the draft being even later in the summer than it has been historically.

Cooper Hjerpe was a really interesting arm when he was drafted out of Oregon State. While it was another college arm who wasn't necessarily expected to be an elite prospect, his upside was much more intriguing than the aforementioned Michael McGreevy.

With a deceptive arm slot and pitching style, his low-90s fastball and intriguing off-speed mix help his stuff to play up even more. something that Cardinals' hitters noted themselves when they saw pieces of Hjerpe during Spring Training.

Hjerpe's first professional season was cut short due to injury, but overall, he was highly effective in High-A, posting a 3.51 ERA with a 29.8 K%, showing that his stuff can produce swing-and-miss at a rate that few other Cardinals' pitching prospects could.

In 2024, Hjerpe has taken off even more, posting a 3.27 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 52.1 innings between High-A and Double-A. He's once again found himself on the injured list though, so hopes are that he's not going to miss significant time once again.

The Cardinals have limited Hjerpe's pitch count this year due to that injury risk, so even though he's been electric when he's on the mound, he hasn't been given a significant shot to prove himself as a starter. Still, I can't understate how good he's looked. Right before he went on the injured list, Hjerpe had put together two straight starts of no-hit ball before being pulled from the game due to his pitch limit.

Hjerpe has middle of the rotation upside and you can dream on him being a bit more if everything comes together for him. A lot of prospect gurus like what Hjerpe's game could become, and it's not just because he looks like Chris Sale on the mound.

At the moment, Hjerpe looks like a really solid pick by the Cardinals, but this grade will hinge on Hjerpe's health and how quickly the Cardinals begin to take the kid gloves off of his development track.

Grade: B

2023 - Chase Davis

If Hjerpe is hard to grade this early, then grading Chase Davis is nearly impossible.

Davis was drafted by the Cardinals out of the University of Arizona as a power-hitting corner outfielder who looked a lot like former Rockies' slugger Carlos Gonzalez at the plate. Things did not get off to a hot start for Davis in the Cardinals' system, as he slashed just .212/.366/.269 in 131 plate appearances at Single-A. The lack of power, not hitting a single home run in those 34 games, was especially concerning for someone who you dream on the power of.

Davis wasn't particularly productive to begin the 2024 season either, but has gotten into a groove as of late, leading all Cardinals' minor leaguers in OPS, OBP, SLG, XBH, and RBI during the month of June.

Defensively, Davis could play some center field, but it is far more likely he will stick in the corners long-term, and he has the athleticism and arm strength to be a quality defender out there. The Cardinals have had a lot of left-handed bats come through their system lately, but the power Davis has from the left side is really only trumped by Nolan Gorman.

For Davis, production is going to catch our eyes, but the real test will be seeing how his bat-to-ball skills develop over the next few years and if he can continue to translate his power to wood bats. So far, it looks like those shifts are taking place, but he's still just 22 and in the lower levels of the minors, so there's a lot of room to grow. It's hard to grade a guy who has about 400 plate appearances to his name in his career, but so far, it at least looks like an intriguing pick for St. Louis.

Grade: B-