Grading the Cardinals lineup, pitching, defense, and coaching staff heading into 2024

The St. Louis Cardinals have had themselves a busy offseason after one of the most disappointing years in franchise history and are hoping to get back into contention during 2024.

Of the 12 players they added to just their 40-man roster during the winter, nine of them were pitchers, just reiterating their need to go out and make major changes to their staff in order to right their wrongs from last year. Those additions come off of the heels of a trade deadline where the Cardinals added nine additional players as they shipped off upcoming free agents for prospects that could help them in 2024 and beyond.

Barring the Cardinals getting really aggressive or a deal "falling into their laps" in the coming weeks, their offseason is likely finished, and so we are beginning to have a good idea of what this team will look like once games begin in the near future.

While we'll be grading each of the Cardinals' additions this offseason shortly, I wanted to take a moment today to give a letter grade to each of the Cardinals' "units" that play a role in their success day in and day out. In order to be competitive for 162 games and go deep into October, a club needs to strengthen itself in a variety of areas on the field: offense, defense, starting pitching, bullpen, and the coaching staff. Front office and ownership for sure matter when it comes to roster construction, but once they get on the field, it's these units that win or lose ballgames.

So, that begs the question, how do each of the Cardinals units look going into 2024? The pitching staff looks very different, and although the position player group did not change much, theirs new expectations and roles for players that should contribute to a different-looking group there as well. And even though there weren't any firings amongst the coaching staff, there were new staff roles added and extra investment given to that group as well.

Let's take a look at each of these units and grade how they look going into the 2024 season for St. Louis.

Offense Grade: A

I get it, if you want to look at the end of the season numbers for the Cardinals' offense in 2024, it was not worthy of an "A" grade by any means. But the Cardinals were a top 7 offense in almost every statical category before the trade deadline last year, but as the injuries piled up in the second half and the team fell out of contention, it was rare to see their lineup even look close to its full strength.

Coming into 2024, you guys like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt who are hungry and motivated to bounce back from down seasons. Arenado specifically seems primed to rebound in a big way, as he was barely above league average on the season offensively due to a terrible second half when his back was even more of an issue.

Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan all missed various amounts of time last year as well, and all three were building upon their prior success at the plate when they were healthy. Just being on the field consistently would help this offense a ton, let alone any steps forward that the trio can take.

Speaking of taking steps forward, Jordan Walker really came into his own at the plate last season once he got comfortable lifting the ball more, and many of the projection systems coming into this year have Walker as the Cardinals' best hitter this season. If Walker truly takes that kind of step forward and establishes himself as one of the young stars in baseball, the currently projected seven-hole hitter for St. Louis may be pushing guys like Goldschmidt, Gorman, or Nootbaar down in the order.

Someone who flew mostly under the radar offensively last year was Willson Contreras. After a terrible beginning to the season, Contreras was a top-5 hitter in all of baseball for the last three months of the season. This lineup is just littered with guys who can do damage at the plate, something that Brandon Kiley of 101 ESPN pointed out when looking at Steamer projections for 2024.

As of right now, the Cardinals lineup will look something like this on Opening Day:

DH Brendan Donovan
1B Paul Goldschmidt
LF Lars Nootbaar
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
DH Nolan Gorman
RF Jordan Walker
CF Tommy Edman
SS Masyn Winn

Few lineups boast that mix of impact bats and lineup depth. Expect the Cardinals offense to be a top-5 unit in 2024, which is why it was an easy choise to give them an "A". Like with any team, if injuries are a theme for their position player group in 2024, the lineup should still be good, but it will leave some to be desired like it did last year.

Defense Grade: B-

Watching the Cardinals night in and night out last season, one of the most frustrating things to observe was their inconsistent play defensively throughout the year.

Jordan Walker was atrocious defensively for most of the season in the outfield. Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan have improved defensively at second base, but it was a far cry from what Tommy Edman has provided there in the past. Willson Contreras was a significant step back defensively behind the plate from what the Cardinals have grown accustomed to. Alec Burleson was told by St. Louis at the end of the year they did not trust him defensively in the outfield. It was a mess.

To make matters worse, even guys like Edman and Nolan Arenado had stretches where things weren't clicking defensively. In the first half of the season, Arenado looked nothing like himself at third base, and Edman was making weird mistakes at second base and shortstop that we are not used to him making.

Things appear to be looking up for the Cardinals' defense next season, but there is a bit of "wait and see" needed here. Behind the plate, Contreras will have a full year under his belt with the Cardinals, and with the addition of Yadier Molina as an advisor, we expect to see some improvement there. Arenado and Goldschmidt should hold things down in the corner infield as they usually do, and the middle infield duo of Masyn Winn and one of Donovan or Gorman makes for one of the better defensive infields in baseball.

Walker has been working hard on his defense in right field, so even if he's just average out there next year, that is a huge improvement from what they got in 2023. Edman looked terrific out in center field and provides stability there, and Lars Nootbaar will get to settle into left field in a full-time capacity. Victor Scott II could factor in at some point with his elite defense as well, and Dylan Carlson is a great option defensively as the fourth outfielder.

The talent is there for this grade to rise as the season goes on, but for now, a B- seems to be more than fair. Arenado, Goldschmidt, Winn, and Edman can all be among the best defensively at their respective positions, and if Walker and Contreras make those improvements the Cardinals are hoping for, they should not have any major liabilities out there on a consistent basis. But with those "what ifs" baked in, it's hard to give them much higher of a grade as things currently stand.

Starting Pitching Grade: C-

Okay, I'm not grading the Cardinals' offseason here, let's be clear. While I understand and don't hate the rationale of how they built this rotation for 2024, I agree that it leaves a lot to be desired, and if a few things go wrong, they are in a really tough spot once again.

The main reason I leaned toward a C- here, among a variety of other reasons I'll get into, is that their plan is to be "good enough" for their offense and bullpen to win them ballgames, but they lack the kind of rotation that can go toe to toe with the best in the game, and their depth is full of unknowns.

Sonny Gray is a front-line starter. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting in 2023 after posting a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts and is someone St. Louis should be able to rely on every fifth day to give them a really good chance to win against any team. After that though, things get really dicey.

On the surface, Miles Mikolas probably slots in as the number two starter right now, but I actually think Steven Matz is their second most talented starter at the moment. Matz struggled to begin 2023, but after a trip to the bullpen, was lights out in his seven starts back in the rotation before his season-ending injury. The Cardinals, as currently constructed, need Matz to remain healthy so they have two guys in their rotation who can confidently post sub-4.00 ERAs.

Mikolas, along with free agent acquisitions Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, are guys who the Cardinals are hoping consistently give them quality starts. Their job is to eat innings and give the Cardinals a chance to win every day, and if they do so, St. Louis will be in good shape during the regular season.

In 2023, the Cardinals were 31-19 (.641 winning percentage) when their starters gave them six or more innings while allowing four or fewer runs. For context, Adam Wainwright, Drew Rom, Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, and Jake Woodford combined for 60 starts last year and only went six or more innings with four or fewer runs in 16 of those starts. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson combined for 65 starts last year, and combined had 33 starts that met that criteria. While the Cardinals' number two and three starters leave a lot to be desired currently, they have, in theory, massively improved the back end of the rotation that lost them a ton of games last year.

That's where this conversation gets tough though. Yes, if Lynn, Gibson, and Mikolas can pump out starts like that throughout the year, it won't be pretty, but it should result in winning baseball. But it's not a recipe for postseason success, and it certainly becomes a shaky plan if any of them struggle or injuries occur.

The biggest wild card here has to be the Cardinals' young pitching depth. At some point, names like Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, Drew Rom, or maybe even Tekoah Roby will get starts in the Major Leaguer rotation, and the Cardinals could catch lightning in a bottle and find a higher upside arm than they currently have from anyone not named Sonny Gray, or they could run into the issue they did last year where their young arms just aren't producing as they need them to when called upon.

C- feels like a fair ranking because, as currently constructed, I could see how this rotation pitches up to a C+ or B- if all goes according to plan, but that's a tough thing to sell to this fanbase. The Cardinals could bolster this group significantly at the trade deadline, but again, we can't project that kind of move now.

Coaching Staff Grade: B-

It's obvious things did not go well for the Cardinals last year, and the easiest "fall guys" when a season goes sideways is typically the coaching staff. While I'm not going to argue that Oliver Marmol and his staff did a good job last year, I'm also not someone who is going to put the blame on him.

Why? Well, it seems like there is universal agreement among Cardinals fans that the club had terrible pitching last year, an inconsistent offense (that was significantly impacted by injuries), and just was not good enough to win last year. Well, if that's the case, then how could Marmol have done a better job?

Yes, his seat is hot, and rightfully so, but I have a hard time saying Marmol was the reason things went poorly. If they had fired him, I would have understood (and I believe he would have too), but I also see why they have a lot of confidence in him. People point to the Tyler O'Neill situation, and while I don't love how it was handled, there has still yet to be a single report that it hurt Marmol's standing in the clubhouse. Yes, the Willson Contreras situation was a mess, but that was not just an Oli decision, that was an organizational decision.

Sure, he doesn't always get the pitching changes right, but are we really going to try and act like he pulled starters too early with how bad of a rotation he had last year? If he decided to leave them in for a third time around the order, they often times got shelled. But if he pulled them in the fourth inning like he often times had to consider doing, does Casey Lawrence or Jacob Barnes give you much confidence either? Marmol can't control the arms he has at his disposal, and if you think they should have been better than they were, then I'm not sure that argument co-exists with saying the roster was just bad.

I think Marmol deserves a chance to prove he's the right guy in 2024, and in a contract year, the stakes are high. The Cardinals replaced his bench coach Joe McEwing (who was hired last minute to replace his first choice in Matt Holliday) with former Cardinals infielder Danny Descalso, and created two new positions on his staff, Assistant Pitching Coach and Major League Coordinator of Technology and Systems, whom Dean Kiekherfer and Daniel MacLea will fill respectively.

One of the common threads from the front office, coaching staff, and players last year was that the coaching staff was too spread thin. With the amount of preparation and data they have to use in today's game, most MLB coaching staff had grown to a larger number than the Cardinals had, so they finally expanded their group.

Not to mention, Yadier Molina is now back as well as an advisor, and will work with catchers during the year but is also expected to be in the dugout during various stretches as well. All of these things should be positive signs.

Like the bullpen, I see a lot of potential variance here. We could view this coaching staff in a better light than a "B-" as the season goes on, or we could see things unravel a bit and be closer to a "C-" or in the "D" range. Only time will tell, like all of the groups we discussed.