Grading the Cardinals' 2023 trade deadline based on their stated goals

For the first time in a long time, the St. Louis Cardinals were sellers at the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline. Despite high expectations for the team at the beginning of the year, the team's hand was forced. With a handful of expiring contracts, some on very talented players, President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak deemed it best to sell players and bring in reinforcements to build up the roster for next year and beyond.

In various deals with the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, and Baltimore Orioles, the Cardinals traded away Genesis Cabrera, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong, and Jack Flaherty, all pitchers in some capacity. While it may seem backward to trade pitching when the goal for the deadline was "pitching, pitching, pitching", the front office was able to net 2 infielders, 7 pitchers, and a catcher, all prospects currently. Among those 10 players, 4 found themselves in the organization's top 10 prospects and an additional 2 in the top 30 prospects. One player will join the major league roster immediately (John King, not ranked), while the remaining 9 players will work their way through the minors over the next few years.

All in all, the Cardinals brought in exactly what they wanted and needed: pitching. However, when compared to the pitchers leaving, how did the front office do? Did John Mozeliak accomplish his goal of replenishing the farm system with capable, high-K pitchers who will be Major League-ready soon?

Mozeliak's primary goals were to gather pitching, particularly strikeout pitching, and replenish the farm system with talented players. Let's take a dive into the stated goals of the front office this trade deadline and then grade it as a whole. Josh Jacobs also took a look at the trade deadline for the Cardinals in the latest episode of his podcast, Redbird Rundown. Give it a listen here.

Grading the Cardinals trade deadline based on their goals

Goal #1: "Pitching, Pitching, Pitching"

Over the last 5+ years in baseball, teams have been targeting a specific type of pitcher in the draft, during trades and during free agency: pitchers who can strike batters out. The Cardinals, however, maintained a focus on groundball pitchers to capitalize on their Gold-Glove infield. This plan worked, up until this year. The rule changes limited shifting, and the team couldn't quite adjust like other shift-heavy teams of yesteryear such as the Rays, Dodgers, and Astros.

Therefore, Mozeliak was forced to identify and trade for pitchers, especially ones who could strike batters out. He stated this goal very clearly in a recent interview. Gathering 7 pitchers in one deadline is a fulfillment of that goal. 4 of the pitching prospects acquired fit immediately into the Cardinals' top prospects. Drew Rom (LHP, #26 in organization), Adam Kloffenstein (RHP, #22), Sem Robberse (RHP, #6), and Tekoah Roby (RHP, #4) were all acquired at this deadline.

The quantity part of Mozeliak's plan was completed; what about the quality aspect? For context, the MLB league-average strikeouts per nine innings is 10.04 K's/9 innings. The average strikeout rate is 22.1% of batters faced. For their careers, Roby strikes out 10.97 batters per nine innings, Robberse strikes out 8.49 per nine innings, Kloffenstein records 9.73 strikeouts per nine innings, and Rom K's 10.53 batters per nine innings. Roby, the highest-ranked prospect of the four, has very strong strikeout numbers. Acquiring 2 pitchers with above-average K rates surely helps the farm system's pitching depth. Robberse, the lowest of the four, has high-strikeout potential should his velocity tick up.

Goal #1 grade: B-

While the front office did a great job acquiring plenty of arms, the high-upside that they may have been seeking isn't quite there. Roby has potential, should he remain healthy. Beyond him, it seems like the Cardinals acquired mid-to-low-rotation arms. While the hope would have been to trade from the infield/outfield depth to acquire a high-end, controllable starter, that goal wasn't met. Had the team traded a young player such as Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, or Alec Burleson for a pitcher, the pitching grade would have been higher.

Overall Trade Deadline Grade: B

The Cardinals accomplished what they set out to do this deadline: get pitching, particularly strikeout pitching, and build up the farm system. Both of those goals were accomplished handily. However, the team may have fallen a bit short at the deadline.

Had John Mozeliak netted one or more top 100 prospects, this grade would be much better. Despite the lack of high-end talent, the team did acquire strong prospects with the potential of being in the middle of the rotation down the road and players who can be strong utility players on the field.

I don't think the 2024 roster revamp is close to done just yet. Through deadline conversations, Mozeliak and Co. were able to gather plenty of information on the prospects and players of other organizations. During the offseason, the front office can use this information to possibly trade off players such as Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O'Neill, or a catcher (Andrew Knizner or Ivan Herrera). Getting a controllable, top-of-the-rotation starter for one of more of these players would complete an otherwise strong deadline retool.

In addition to a trade for a strong rotation piece, hopefully the front office is willing to sign one of the free agent starting pitchers this offseason. A rotation of Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, one of Matthew Liberatore/Gordon Graceffo/Michael McGreevy, a player who is traded for, and a free agent should be strong enough to lead the team next year. This year's trade deadline, an offseason trade, and an offseason pitching acquisition will be a strong retool for a team looking to compete in 2024 and beyond.