Grading each of the St. Louis Cardinals' trade deadline moves
After a few days to process the Cardinals' deadline moves, here are some official grades for what they were able to accomplish
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It's been a few days now since the St. Louis Cardinals whirlwind of a trade deadline. For the first time in the John Mozeliak era, the club was a legit seller at the deadline. Sure, there have been years where they were not "buying", but we have never seen a teardown at the deadline under this front office.
Many, myself included, had hoped that the Cardinals could also pull off some deals for high-end starting pitching with control. Names like Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller of the Seattle Mariners came to mind. But the only starter moved at the deadline with club control was Guardians' Aaron Civale, who netted the Guardians a top-30 prospect in baseball.
So, without a clear deal on the table, the Cardinals did what they needed to do, which was capitalize on their impending free agents. There was buzz about extension talks with Jordan Hicks and Jack Flaherty leading up to the deadline, as well as a possible outcome where the Cardinals would keep Flaherty and just extend him a qualifying offer in the offseason. None of those things came to fruition, as the Cardinals were able to pull off deals for not only Hicks and Flaherty, but also Paul DeJong, Jordan Montgomery, and Chris Stratton.
So, how did the Cardinals do at the deadline this year? Let's break down each individual deal, and then give the Cardinals an overall deadline grade as well.
These are my grades for the St. Louis Cardinals trade deadline moves
Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to the Texas Rangers
Rangers received: LHP Jordan Montgomery and RHP Chris Stratton
Cardinals received: RHP Tekoah Roby, INF Thomas Saggese, and LHP John King
A couple of things need to be addressed right off the top. The Cardinals traded away rental players. While Montgomery, Hicks, and Flaherty were some of the best rentals out there, they weren't superstars either, so the returns were going to be lighter than players with control.
The only way the Cardinals could receive real upside in a deal would be to package players together, which is what they were able to accomplish here.
The biggest name to watch here is RHP Tekoah Roby, who FanGraphs has ranked as the 64th-best prospect in all of baseball.
Roby boasts a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s with rise, a fastball that can truly miss bats at every level. He also has a plus-plus curveball, with crazy vertical break, and tunnels well with that fastball. Roby truly has top-of-the-rotation potential.
Yes, you read that right. Roby has the potential to be at the top of the Cardinals' rotation some day.
The main reason the Cardinals were able to get their hands on him for rental players was the shoulder injury that has sidelined him since June. If the Cardinals were going to get this high upside of a prospect, there was going to have to be a level of risk involved, and this was the price they paid. But boy, if the shoulder injury is just a blip on the radar, the Cardinals may have gotten an absolute steal here.
If you had told me that the Cardinals got Roby and two throw-in prospects with him, I would've been a happy camper. Although John King fits the bill as a "throw-in", the Cardinals also snagged another player I really like in Thomas Saggese.
Compared to Brendan Donovan for the versatility he brings by John Mozeliak himself, Saggese brings an intriguing bat to the Cardinals' system while being able to play all four infield positions.
Saggese seems like a sure bet to be a valuable utility player at the next level, but if he continues to grind and improve as Donovan did, he could rise to that "super-utility" status that warrants consistent playing time.
I love this deal for the Cardinals. They went after upside with this deal, and I prefer gambles on potential high-end talent with where the club is at right now.
Grade: A
Jordan Hicks to the Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays received: RHP Jordan Hicks
Cardinals received: RHP Adam Kloffenstein and RHP Sem Robberse
Depending on the outlet, the Cardinals netted themselves a top-100 prospect (Roby) in the Montgomery deal. I was pretty convinced that the Cardinals could do the same with Jordan Hicks, and had they packaged him with another player, or maybe even done just a one-for-one swap, maybe it would have happened.
I still really like what they did here, though.
I know I said in the last trade that I prefer the risk of potential higher-end talent, the Cardinals badly need starting pitching depth in their system. If they are going to pull off some trades and sign starters to replenish their rotation for 2024, they need the prospect capital to pull it off, and pitching depth to overcome injuries throughout a season.
While it's unclear how much Adam Kloffenstein or Sam Robberse can help the Cardinals in 2024, they add two more names to the mix of Gordan Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, and Matthew Liberatore of near-MLB-ready arms who can contribute next year.
Robberse is just 21 years old, making him an extremely young arm with promise, which is huge for St. Louis. His upside caps out as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but there is development needed for that to be a real trajectory for him.
I really like Klofferstein though, and he was someone that Mozeliak indicated may be the closest to an MLB call-up out of the acquired prospects. Klofferstein is 6'5, 240 lbs with strikeout stuff, and gets groundballs as well. He has put up nice numbers at Double-A as well (3.24 ERA), giving me a lot of optimism about him as a prospect.
Grade: B
Paul DeJong to the Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays received: SS Paul DeJong and cash considerations
Cardinals received: RHP Matt Svanson
Let's be clear, Paul DeJong did not carry much trade value. Honestly, the fact that St. Louis got something of potential value at all is a huge win.
I know DeJong has rebounded a bit for St. Louis this year, but he's definitely cooled down after his hot start, and it took a Bo Bichette injury on the eve of the trade deadline to get a deal done.
Until that point, there was reportedly only one other team calling on DeJong, but after the Blue Jays called, a deal got done quickly.
Translation: there wasn't really a market for DeJong.
Svanson is a 24-year-old relief prospect who has yet to pitch above the High-A level, which is not the best optics for a prospect. Still, Svanson did post a 1.11 ERA in 32.1 innings with 39 SO, so there is promise there.
Overall, the Cardinals are hoping to get a decent reliever long-term by trading DeJong and paying some of his salary. That's about all you can ask for, and because of that, the trade was fine to me.
Grade: C+
Jack Flaherty to the Baltimore Orioles
Orioles received: RHP Jack Flaherty
Cardinals received: 2B Cesar Prieto, LHP Drew Rom, and RHP Zack Showalter
Once there were only 60 minutes left to go before the deadline, there seemed to be a bit of panic among Cardinals fans about whether or not Jack Flaherty would be dealt by the club. It was clear that the Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease sweepstakes were holding up the market significantly, causing teams to pause on Flaherty talks.
This could either be perfect for the #STLCards or cause them to miss out completely on a deal. Teams may have very little time left and have to quickly pull off a deal for Flaherty, getting more value. Orrrrr time could run out 🤷🏻♂️ https://t.co/eQvGoAEVYA
— Joshua Jacobs (@joshjacoMLB) August 1, 2023
Eventually, a deal was struck with the Orioles, with the Dodgers potentially interested and the Rays reportedly going hard after Flaherty. The Cardinals' got three names in return, all with very different profiles.
Cesar Prieto, 24, has posted an .868 OPS in 335 at-bats this year, including an .836 OPS at the Triple-A level. He can play all over the infield and provides the Cardinals with another versatile infield option long-term. He lacks the upside that a Saggase has but is still an interesting name nonetheless.
Drew Rom has posted a 5.34 ERA with 100 SO in just 86 innings this year, and although he does miss bats, he projects as a back-end of the rotation starter at best, but more likely a swingman or bullpen arm. Not bad depth at all for the organization.
Those were the two players reported in the early minutes after the deal went down, but later, it was reported that 19-year-old prospect Zack Showalter was also coming over to St. Louis. Showalter was in High-A at the time for the Orioles and had a 2.37 ERA in 9 starts this year. Showalter is honestly the most interesting name in the package for me, as he is that lottery ticket prospect who could be forgotten in a few years, become a legit prospect with high-end upside, or anywhere in between.
Did I think the Cardinals could get a bit more? Sure. I think I would have rather had a prospect better than Prieto as the "high-ranking prospect" in the deal, but I think it was a quality deal nonetheless. I heard rumblings that the Orioles were looking to acquire both Flaherty and Dylan Carlson, so if that had happened, a stronger package would have come back to St. Louis.
Grade: B
Overall trade deadline grade
Sure, it's easy to get annoyed that the Cardinals were not able to get a rotation arm for 2024 at this deadline, but since those were not available, I think St. Louis did the best they could with the hand they were dealt.
They build prospect depth in the organization in a much-needed way, acquiring a good mix of high-upside pitching prospects, quality arms with a higher floor and are more MLB-ready, and even a few intriguing position players.
For context, this is where each of their new prospects rank in their organization according to MLB.com
RHP Tekoah Roby (#4)
RHP Sem Robberse (#6)
INF Thomas Saggese (#8)
INF Cesar Prieto (#9)
RHP Adam Kloffenstein (#22)
RHP Zack Showalter (#23)
LHP Drew Rom (#26)
RHP Matt Svanason (NR)
Getting four prospects that rank in the organization's top 10 (with Roby potentially being a top-100 prospect), as well as so many other interesting names, while giving up just rental pieces, is a huge win for St. Louis.
Once the offseason comes around, they can have serious talks with the Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, and other clubs about controllable starting pitching and explore upgrades in the free-agent market. But for now, the Cardinals did what they needed to do, and they did it really well.