Grading 8 Cardinals trade proposals our readers think need to happen this offseason
We asked fans on social media to submit trade ideas for the Cardinals. Many submissions were made, but we wanted to grade these 8 trades that stood out.
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The St. Louis Cardinals have already accomplished a few moves this offseason to stabilize their rotation, but in the words of John Mozeliak, they are not done yet.
While the Cardinals have already added three starting pitchers, they are widely expected to remain aggressive this offseason. They are very open about their desire to improve their bullpen, and they will be opportunistic about adding another starting pitcher if the right deal is there.
In light of that, I took to Twitter to ask Cardinals fans what trades they would like to see the team make this offseason, and I decided to grade different trade proposals based on the following criteria:
1. How realistic is the move for both sides? As much as I'd like to trade Dylan Carlson straight up for Dylan Cease, the White Sox are not doing that.
2. If the deal is realistic, how much would the Cardinals benefit from that move? Are they getting good value in return for what they are giving up?
3. How the trade would fit within the scope of the moves they have already made that offseason.
Here are 8 trade ideas that our readers submitted and how I would grade them.
Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson for Dylan Carlson and Travis Honeyman
— Sandy_McMillan-Noot_News (@SandyMac718) November 25, 2023
Let's start off with an idea from site contributor and fellow host over at the Noot News Podcast, Sandy McMillan. The Cardinals would be acquiring two former top prospects in baseball, Nate Pearson and Alek Manoah, from the Toronto Blue Jays.
The cost here would be Dylan Carlson and Travis Honeyman, which seems like a fair price to pay to get two arms with a high upside. Pearson spent time in the Blue Jays bullpen last year and could be brought back as a starter, or provide the Cardinals with another dynamic arm for their bullpen.
Manoah has been rumored for the Cardinals for weeks now. In 2022, Manoah was a Cy Young candidate, and last year, he completely fell apart. The upside here is very real, but remains quite a risk.
Dylan Carlson himself has been disappointing at the big league level, so this is an opportunity for both the Blue Jays and Cardinals to get a change of scenery guys at positions of need.
Trade Grade: B+
🤷🏻♂️ pic.twitter.com/RkbbSzU3eN
— Chris Lollis (@_ChrisLollis) November 25, 2023
Here is a pretty wild trade proposal from Chris Lollis, who does an incredible job running Cardinals 24/7, and you should give them a follow or join their Facebook group. In case you can't see all of the pieces in the screenshot he provided, the trade would be:
Cardinals receive: Logan Gilbert and Robbie Ray
Mariners receieve: Brendan Donovan, Dylan Carlson, Gordon Graceffo, and Luken Baker
I've gone back and forth on how I feel about this, and overall, I think it's a very creative way for St. Louis to upgrade their rotation while not having to part with a bunch of significant assets. I think the Cardinals would have to eat all of Ray's contract here, but I see why that can make a lot of sense.
Gilbert is cost-controlled through the 2027 season, so the Cardinals are adding a cheap, front-of-the-rotation talent to their rotation for a long time. Ray is coming off Tommy John surgery, so it's an opportunity for the Mariners to move off a huge contract, and the for Cardinals to add another dynamic arm to their rotation.
This would give St. Louis a rotation of:
Sonny Gray
Logan Gilbert
Robbie Ray
Miles Mikolas
Lance Lynn
Kyle Gibson
That is quite the facelift from 2023!
Gray's contract being front-loaded gives the Cardinals the flexibility to absorb Ray's contract this year, and have both Gibson and Lynn to cover innings while he works his way back. After this season, Lynn and Gibson come off the books, so his salary would not be as much to take on, and the Cardinals can look to move off Steven Matz and Tyler O'Neill to free up more salary.
I'm not sold on the Mariners' side of this unless they plan on going big game hunting in free agency. Even then I think they'd want Nolan Gorman over Brendan Donovan, but I really like this idea for the Cardinals.
Trade Grade: A-
Stl- Glasnow
— Bob Charles (@BobChar21268449) November 25, 2023
Tb- Gordon Graceffo, Luken Baker, Zack Thompson
Ah man, Tyler Glasnow trades have a special place in my heart. I still believe going and getting Glasnow makes so much sense for the Cardinals, and I could see the Rays being interested in this package.
Tampa Bay would move off of Glasnow's $25 million salary and bring in an MLB-ready arm in Zack Thompson and a near MLB-ready arm in Graceffo. I don't think they'd value Baker very much, but he makes for a nice throw in that they can see if his bat plays. The Rays have a ton of injuries to their pitching staff as they go into 2024, so the depth of arms, especially cost-controlled, would open up their flexibility to continue to add to their club.
From the Cardinals' side of things, they bring in a super high upside arm in Glasnow who can give them a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. I do think the Cardinals would prefer to move an outfielder instead of one of those arms, as they need to keep some immediate starting pitching depth for when injuries happen to any of their starters. I think they would likely move off Steven Matz if they got Glasnow, so that leaves their MLB-ready depth behind their starting five very thin.
I also personally think the Rays would want a position player as well, but I could totally see them taking this package.
Trade Grade: B+
Dylan Cease for Gorman & Tink
— Andy (@Redbird_Winner) November 25, 2023
I've been going back and forth on what I think Dylan Cease's trade value is on this market. Sending both Nolan Gorman and Tink Hence would be a tough pill to swallow, but one that could end up being needed.
Here's why I'll grade this deal lower. I think both sides have problems with how this package is put together.
From the White Sox perspective, I'm sure they'd love to get both Gorman and Hence, but I also think they likely want a package, not just two higher-valued pieces in return. The White Sox are a mess of an organization right now, and desperately need infusions of talent at every level. While this does not mean they are going to take a bunch of scarp parts for Cease, I do think they may end up wanting a well rounded package.
From the Cardinals' perspective, giving up Gorman is a really tough sell both to fans and the organization itself. I do think if push comes to shove, they'll entertain trading Gorman in a deal like this, especially with the uncertainty around his back long term, but I believe they'd much rather give up prospects than Gorman.
Hence I do think is something that both teams would agree on moving. Not that the Cardinals want to move on from Hence, but if they can get a front-line starter now with two years of control like Cease, I believe they'd be open to that.
We have another Cease package that I'll grade later on, but for now, I think this is an okay package that both sides would want to make changes to.
Trade Grade: C
To TB: Edman, Burleson, O’Neill
— Tyler (@TylerEwing20) November 25, 2023
To STL: Glasnow, Adam
Another Glasnow deal! Music to my ears!
The framework here is interesting. I do think it's a bit one sided in favor of the Rays though. In this deal, the Cardinals get their second front-end starter in Glasnow, but they also get a really strong reliever in Jason Adam with multiple years of control attached to him. I love the idea of getting both of these arms for the Cardinals, but I think the price is a hair high.
Burleson still has a ton of team control, and has what it takes to become an impact left-handed bat for a club long-term. I don't think this is what's happening in this proposal, but I do believe his name gets thrown around in packages too much. He has exactly 400 plate apperances at the Major League level in mostly a part time role. He was a top-100 prospect when he made his debut with St. Louis and shot through their system due to his excellent swing and just mashing pitching.
I would make him available in a Glasnow deal, especially if they are getting Adam too, but I don't think all three of these players are needed in this deal.
I would change this package to either Edman and O'Neill or Edman and Burleson. I think Edman is more expendable than most people would say, especially if the Cardinals hold onto Dylan Carlson. Yes, there is concern about who can play shortstop if Winn struggles or even just in spot starts, but I think you can sign a depth option there or rely on Donovan and Saggese to cover the gaps. Edman's in his second year of arbitration, and will likely see his salary around $10 million in 2025 and then be seeking a long-term deal following that. I just don't think the Cardinals need to pay him with the middle infield and center field options that they have long-term.
But at the time time, this deal had the Cardinals giving up eight years of control for four years of control, which I don't think is the best thing for St. Louis. I'm sure they'd rather give up Edman and O'Neill, but I think both sides could agree on a Burleson/Edman deal here. This would also allow the Cardinals to flip O'Neill for another reliever or prospect depth, which would be really helpful as they reshape their organization this offseason.
Trade Grade: B+
How about this one? St Louis sends Gorman, Libby, Hjerpe, Burleson, and Thompson to Seattle for Gilbert and Carlos Vargas. It’d hurt to give up Gorman, Libby and Thompson seem to need a fresh start, and you’re also getting a pitcher back in Vargas to replace them.
— David Albers (@bnsffandavid) November 25, 2023
Here is a Logan Gilbert trade idea from David, a player that I personally have had a hard time cooking up deals for in the past.
The appeal with Gilbert is real. He's trending toward being one of the best starters in baseball, has multiple years of control ahead of him, a couple of seasons of track record, and throws a lot of innings. But he's the thing, since he checks all of those boxes, the price is going to be very high, one that I do not see the Cardinals matching.
One small issue I have with Gilbert too is that there still is a decent amount of projecting with him. I hear people call him an ace or a number one, and I really don't think he's there yet. Will he get there? I think so. But he also could just be a number two starter long-term, which is super valuable, but is it worth giving up so many assets for? Part of the price here is his long-term control, and I'd rather go after a guy with a bit less control so I don't have to give up so much.
I think Seattle would like this deal, but I could also see them asking for a bit more and I really do not think the Cardinals would want to make this trade. They lose both Gorman and Burleson in this deal, which is two of their valuable left-handed bats. They also send three arms different arms with six years of control each, which is just a hefty price to pay.
The thought makes sense to me, but I just have a hard time believing the Cardinals or Mariners would be able to come to an agreement on a deal they both feel good about.
Trade Grade: D+
STL: SP Dylan Cease
— St. Louis Cardinals Coverage (@stlcardscov) November 25, 2023
CWS: SS Masyn Winn
OF Dylan Carlson
RHP Gordon Graceffo
OF Joshua Baéz
Another Dylan Cease trade and this one is painful like the first one. No matter what, a deal for Cease is going to take a lot, but in my opinion, minimizing the amount of damage to the big league roster would be the way to go.
Masyn Winn is the centerpiece of this deal and someone I think the White Sox would covet. On the latest episode of the Noot News Podcast, we tier-ranked the top Cardinals trade assets, and we had Winn just below the untouchable tier. You can listen to our full rankings here.
I love Winn, and I'd be very hesitant to move him. I'd much rather replace him with assets like Thomas Saggese and Tink Hence, but with the presence of Tommy Edman on the roster, it's possible to move Winn if it means getting a frontline starter with control like Cease.
Carlson is a player that makes a lot of sense for the White Sox. They need outfield help badly and Carlson still has what it takes to be an impact player for a long time. Joshua Baez is a toolsy prospect who could be a big power bat in the future.
Gordon Graceffo provides the White Sox with an intriguing arm that is close to the Majors, giving them more arms to work with going forward.
I like this trade, but I do not love it for either team. I think the White Sox would want a bit more, and I think the inclusion of Winn makes giving more difficult for the Cardinals to swallow.
Trade Grade: B
Cardinals acquire: Patrick Sandoval
— Cameron Streeter (@CameronStreete3) November 25, 2023
Angels Acquire: Alec Burleson, Gordon Graceffo, Travis Honeyman, Ivan Herrera
Patrick Sandoval is a trade target that I have not heard many people discuss this offseason but he could provide some intrigue for the Cardinals.
Sandoval had a bit of a down 2023 season, posting a 4.11 ERA in 144.2 innings of work. From 2021-2022 though, he threw 235.2 innings with a 3.17 ERA, with a 132 ERA+. He'd be a quality left-handed starter to add to the rotation but does not qualify as a number two starter in my opinion.
I like Sandoval, but I'm not sure he's the pitcher the Cardinals should be sending a package for. He has three years of control and is a nice starter, but I'm not sure what his ceiling truly is.
Ivan Herrera, Gordon Graceffo, Travis Honeyman, and Alec Burleson are a high price to pay for pitching, and while I don't think it's an outrageous asking price, I do think it's not the move they should moving their assets for. I would be moving assets to go after a true top-of-the-rotation talent, not someone whose value comes a lot from their control.
I could see the Angels being interested in something like this as they look to rebuild as an organization, but for St. Louis, I'm not a fan.
Trade Grade: C
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