Final St. Louis Cardinals Opening Day Roster Prediction

The St. Louis Cardinals open the 2024 season against the Los Angeles Dodgers in just six days, and with the club rounding out their final Spring Training games, we are days away from finding out who will make their Opening Day roster.

We've made multiple roster predictions during camp, but as injuries and player performances have changed, so has the outlook of the roster. There are real question marks about how the rotation will shake out to begin the year, which names will fill out the Cardinals' bullpen, and how the club will decide to align their outfield when they travel to Los Angeles.

Today I am making my final prediction for the Cardinals Opening Day roster based on what I think will happen. This doesn't mean it's the exact roster I would select for them on Opening Day, but based on various reports and the feeling around the club, this is the roster I believe they'll begin the season with.

Catchers (2) - Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera

Again, no surprises here, as Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera remain the projected tandem for St. Louis as they open up the season. The Cardinals have a ton of faith in this duo, and if they live up to their potential in 2024, it gives the Cardinals a massive advantage in having a good catcher in the game every single day.

One name that has really caught people's attention this spring is Pedro Pages, and although he has no shot of dethroning Contreras or Herrera, he is proving to be a really solid third option, should an injury happen. Pages is regarded as the best of the three catchers defensively, while also putting up really impressive numbers at the plate this spring (following an equally impressive Double-A campaign in 2023).

Expect Contreras and Herrera to carry the load this year, but should he be needed, Pages looks more than capable of being the Cardinals backup at some point this year.

Just missed - Pedro Pages

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Infield (6) - Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan*, Masyn Winn, Matt Carpenter, and Brandon Crawford

No changes here from the last time we looked at the lineups, but there is a change in how one of these infielders will be used...and it's a move to the outfield (at least for the time being).

Brendan Donovan had been getting starts in left field, and while that's nothing new for him, it's been clear that the Cardinals are weighing the idea of him being in left field for them to begin the year. The Cardinals don't seem to have concerns about his surgically repaired elbow, and neither does Donovan.

I really don't see Donovan having a set position this year, barring a major injury or Nolan Gorman regressing defensively. I imagine we'll see Donovan play every position except center field and catcher this year, and will get plenty of looks at designated hitter as well.

Donovan will be an everyday player for this club. There are those who think because his position is not defined that it means he will be a bench piece, but his bat, and defensive versatility, are far too valuable not to have in the lineup. He's their best lead-off hitter and has been incredibly productive at the plate in his short career, and the Cardinals will find a way to have him play as often as possible, perhaps even being the team leader in games played and at-bats.

Gorman will likely be the primary second baseman, but he too should also see time at designated hitter and could play some third base when Arenado is out. I tend to think since Donovan is already bouncing around that he would get the starts at third base, but we will see.

Once Tommy Edman returns from injury, I think there could be a real conversation about Brandon Crawford being DFA'd, especially if a certain exciting outfielder makes the roster on Opening Day like one beat writer seems to believe (more on the next slide).

Just missed: Jose Fermin

Outfield (4) - Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson

We'll have our answer on the Victor Scott II saga here soon, and although I've been skeptical that the Cardinals would actually put him on the Opening Day roster, I find it very interesting that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has Scott on his projected Opening Day roster (subscription required).

Scott making the roster would be extremely exciting and a huge vote of confidence from the front office and coaching staff. He would immediately provide the Cardinals with elite defense in center field, be one of the best base stealers in all of baseball, and if his bat can hang, he'll run with the job and never look back.

Scott making the roster does not guarantee he stays on the roster. If the Cardinals were willing to demote Jordan Walker last year, they wouldn't be afraid to do the same with Scott. Nootbaar's return, which should come rather quickly, could force a demotion, and certainly, Edman's return could as well. But if the Cardinals do go with Scott on the Opening Day roster, they likely want him to stick with the club the entire year.

If Scott does run with the job, I think there's a variety of ramifications the club will have to weigh. First, once Nootbaar is back, one of Burleson or Carlson will have to be sent down to Memphis. My money would be on Burleson with his lack of defensive versatility, but it's a shame considering his hot bat this spring and that the underlying metrics last year showed he's better than the results he got in 2023. But since the Cardinals seem married to the idea of Matt Carpenter on the roster all year, roster spots begin to run thing.

Once Edman comes back, if Scott is still their guy in center, I think the Crawford conversation becomes very real for St. Louis. If Edman is not the starting center fielder, then his next best role would be the primary backup to Scott and Winn, coming off the bench as the Cardinals' true "10th man" and being the utility guy who plugs in whenever someone has a true day off (or a lefty is on the mound). This also potentially makes Edman a trade chip (and/or the likes of Carlson and Burleson) at the trade deadline.

Just missed: Michael Siani
Injured List: Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman

Rotation (6) - Sonny Gray, Miles MIkolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Steven Matz, and Zack Thompson

Out of all of the injured Cardinals, Sonny Gray seems to be the hardest for me to land on how they will handle him. I could see them putting him on the 15-day injured list to begin the year and join the rotation immediately following that, but I do think he'll make the Opening Day roster, just not as the Opening Day starter.

Gray may see his start pushed back, and here's where I think the Cardinals can get creative. Remember when people were talking about the Cardinals having a six-man rotation to begin the year...now is the perfect excuse to do so, allowing Gray more time before having to make his first start. but not forcing him into an entire injured list stint.

Here's how it could work...

March 28th - Miles Mikolas
March 29th - Lance Lynn
March 30th - Kyle Gibson
March 31st - Steven Matz
April 1st - Zack Thompson
April 2nd - Sonny Gray
April 3rd - Miles Mikolas
April 4th - Lance Lynn
April 5th - Off-day

If Gray were to begin the year on the injured list, his first start of the season could not come until at least April 12th. If, and only if, they think Gray will be ready by April 2nd, then this seems like the best route to me.

The way the Cardinals appear to be positioning their rotation right now would be to have Thompson take the ball fifth in the order, but if Gray does get to make a start early in the season rather than an IL stint, I would argue he should pitch in the second game of the season. Why? Well aside from the fact that he may be the second-best healthy starter right now, that would potentially allow them to have Thompson available for a few innings to piggyback off of Gray, especially if he's on a pitch limit.

Once Gray rejoins the rotation, Thompson will be relegated to the bullpen, but it may not be long before we see him making starts again for St. Louis. Thompson has been impressive this spring, and with all three of Gibson, Lynn, and Matz struggling so far, the Cardinals may need to get aggressive and move someone to the bullpen if Thompson is clearly the better option. For now, the Cardinals are going to stick to their guns with the rotation, and we'll see how well that works out for them.

Just missed: Matthew Liberatore

Opening Day Lineups

Versus Right-Handed Pitching
DH Brendan Donovan
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2B Nolan Gorman
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
RF Jordan Walker
LF Dylan Carlson
SS Masyn Winn
CF Victor Scott II

Versus Left-Handed Pitching
DH Brendan Donovan
1B Paul Goldschmidt
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
2B Nolan Gorman
RF Jordan Walker
LF Dylan Carlson
SS Masyn Winn
CF Victor Scott II

The Cardinals' lineup against right-handed pitching seems about clear as day now or at the least the top six in their order. Scott making the roster and Carlson's strong camp cause me to think their lineups will feature the same nine guys on most days, at least until Nootbaar and Edman return.

I do think the Cardinals will shake the order up a bit with a southpaw on the mound though. Even though Donovan is not great against left-handed pitching, if he's starting, I think he'll stay as the leadoff guy, with the Cardinals favoring their veteran right-handed bats in the 2-3-4 spots to follow him. Nolan Gorman was excellent against left-handed pitching last year, so batting fifth behind Goldschmidt-Arenado-Contreras gives the Cardinals some more thump.

The name I am going to be so interested to see how they handle throughout the season is Jordan Walker. Many, including myself, think he could be the best hitter on the roster this year, and if that ends up being the case, will Oli Marmol be willing to move him up in the order and move down a veteran like Goldschmidt, Arenado, or Contreras? Against left-handed pitching, they could easily move him up in the order and keep Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Contreras somewhere between 2-5, but against right-handed pitching, I doubt they move a left-handed bat out of the third spot.

This Cardinals lineup is very strong, and even without one of their top hitters in Nootbaar to begin the year, they are still a formidable group. A year of improvement from Winn and the dynamic Scott at the bottom of the order could create some chaos for opposing pitchers, and give the top of the Cardinals lineup an opportunity to feast on a consistent basis.