Final predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals' Opening Day Roster

My final Opening Day roster predictions for the 2023 Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals should announce their 26-man roster for the 2023 season on Sunday, and in the two or so weeks since my last Opening Day roster prediction, a lot has changed about this roster's outlook.

First, injuries to Adam Wainwright, Paul DeJong, and Wilking Rodriguez have shifted multiple roster battles in a major way, as all three players seemed to be locks for the roster the last time we checked in. Their replacements will give this Cardinals' roster a very different look for the first month of the season.

Player performances have also shifted this conversation quite a bit as well. Some prospects have turned up their game a notch, while others have not. World Baseball Classic performances have shifted the opinions on some players, while Spring Training has had its fair share of highlights and duds as well.

What is important to note about this roster prediction is we are just looking at who will be with the club on Opening Day next Thursday, not who will be on the Cardinals' roster the entirety of the year. Sometimes, roster decisions are made in part due to 40-man roster openings and the number of options a player has, which I think will cause some players to make the roster over other names for the time being. Come May or June, this roster could look significantly different. Last year, names like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman made their debuts after just a few months of games.

Here are my final Opening Day roster prediction for the St. Louis Cardinals

Catchers

(2) - Willson Contreras and Andrew Knizner

Not much to stay here, but I did want to note how this group has performed this spring. In 13 games, Contreras has posted a .872 OPS, looking like the big bat that St. Louis is hoping he'll be this year.

Let's be completely honest, Andrew Knizner has done nothing to deserve an Opening Day roster spot. In 45 at-bats, he is slashing .111/.184/.111 with 0 HR and 1 RBI, even being outclassed by Tres Barrera defensively as well. Barrera, for his own arguement, has posted a .833 OPS, but it is important to note he has a .154 batting average and has only had 13 at-bats.

If Knizner's slow start continues in April, expect to see him designated for an assignment or optioned down in favor of Barrera or Ivan Herrera.

Just missed: Tres Barrera

Infielders

(6) - Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, and Taylor Motter

With the injury to DeJong, a lot has changed in terms of how the Cardinals will rotate their infielders to begin the season.

It seems like Brendan Donovan will be the backup shortstop on days when Tommy Edman needs a break, with Gorman taking over at second base and the designated hitter spot opening up for one of their outfielders. Even so, I still believe the team will want another infielder on the roster, in case of injuries or multiple guys need off days.

Taylor Motter has had himself an excellent camp so far, posting a .765 OPS in 50 at-bats for St. Louis. He has played all over the field for the club, making him the perfect "13th position player" on the roster. Motter won't need to be rotated into the lineup as much as one of their young prospects would and should bring versatility, energy, and a decent bat to the team.

You'll see later that a player misses the roster who is more talented than Motter who most assume will make the cut, but with the lack of playing time to go around, I think the Cardinals would rather have their young bats playing in Triple-A and allow a guy like Motter to plug in when needed.

Masyn Winn has had an incredible camp, posting a .878 OPS in 51 at-bats and showing that he is a more advanced hitter than anyone imagined. Still, like other players in this organization, there is not enough opportunity in St. Louis yet, so expect him to begin the year in Memphis, and force his way onto the roster sometime this summer.

Just missed: Masyn Winn, Kramer Robertson, Paul DeJong (will begin the season on the IL)

Outfielders

(5) - Jordan Walker, Tyler O'Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson

This was tougher than I thought it would be about a week ago. Walker has cooled off significantly since his brief injury scare, leading some to believe his spot is in jeopardy. While I do think there are more questions now than there were before when I talked to MLB.com's John Denton the other day, who covers the Cardinals each day, he remained confident Walker would make this roster.

Walker will be the Opening Day left fielder, Tyler O'Neill will line up in center, and Lars Nootbaar will patrol right field for St. Louis. Dylan Carlson will still have a significant role with this club but is likely the fourth option for the time being. I do think he remains a starter against left-handed pitching, and will still find 4-5 starts a week for the club.

I had Alec Burleson making the roster over Juan Yepez in my last predictions, and I feel even better about that now. Yepez is a great hitter and will be on this roster again at some point, but he's struggled this spring (.609 OPS in 58 at-bats) and doesn't really have a role with this team. The DH spot will likely go to Nolan Gorman and then whoever needs to be rotated into it, and Yepez does not provide enough value defensively to start over their other options.

Burleson, on the other hand, is a left-handed bat, something the Cardinals would like more of on their roster. Burleson has a .748 OPS this spring and the club has really liked his batted-ball metrics. It's easier to see a path toward playing time for Burleson, as he can play the corner outfield spots and first base better than Yepez, and can pitch hit late in games as a left-handed bat off the bench.

Just missed - Juan Yepez

Starting Rotation

(5) - Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery, and Jake Woodford

Miles Mikolas is fresh off his new two-year extension with the Cardinals and has been named the Opening Day starter now that Wainwright is beginning the year on the injured list. Wainwright's injury does create an opportunity for one of the Cardinals' depth arms to step up, and I think that will be Jake Woodford.

In 17.2 innings this spring, Woodford has a 2.04 ERA, 18 strikeouts, and a 1.02 WHIP to go with a batting average against of .213. He has been nothing but impressive this camp and has truly earned an opportunity in this rotation.

Dakota Hudson had every opportunity to be the "next man up", but his 6.23 ERA this spring got him sent back down to minor league camp, and I think he'll need to make major progress in Memphis before the club would consider bringing him back up.

Matthew Liberatore has been just as impressive, if not more impressive, than Woodford this spring, and I think he will get a chance to join this roster pretty soon after Opening Day if a spot opens up. For now, since he has already been optioned down to minor league camp, I think the club will let him stretch out as a starter until further notice.

Just missed: Matthew Liberatore and Dakota Hudson

Bullpen

(8) - Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Jordan Hicks, Zack Thompson, Drew VerHagen, Andre Pallante, Genesis Cabrera, and Chris Stratton

This is the group that has experienced the most change in the last two weeks, which makes a lot of sense in light of how fluid this competition was going to be and the injuries to names that seemed like locks for this staff.

With Wilking Rodriguez being a Rule 5 pick, he was going to make the roster, barring a major meltdown. This opened up one new spot, as well as Woodford moving into the rotation and Dakota Hudson faltering so much. The new names on my list now include Genesis Cabrera and Chris Stratton.

Stratton has struggled in camp (5.14 ERA) but should function as the lowest-leverage reliever in the bullpen. Since he has a guaranteed contract, it makes sense to let him pitch out of the bullpen to start the year, and if he falters, then they can turn to some of their intriguing young arms in Memphis or Springfield.

Cabrera has been pretty good during camp and still boasts electric stuff from the left side. Before the recent injuries, it seemed like the Cardinals were going to head into the season with Zack Thompson and Andre Pallante as their options against left-handed hitters late in games. Although Pallante is a right-handed pitcher, he has reverse splits. So Cabrera's presence on this roster, and more so, the void that Rodriguez left, will likely change a lot of things for this bullpen.

Helsley and Gallegos remain the club's go-to, high-leverage relievers. Hicks should be the next man up, but with Cabrera on the roster, one of Thompson or Pallante could factor in as the 7th-inning guy for St. Louis. I do think Pallante may end up having multiple roles in the pen, being relied on in big spots sometimes, and other times, eating innings as the "long man".

After a few weeks, I think this bullpen will have some changes again, but for now, this is how I see it shaping up for Opening Day.

Just missed - Andrew Suarez, JoJo Romero, and Wilking Rodriguez (start the year on IL)

Lineup vs. right-handed pitching

1. 2B Brendan Donovan 2. CF Tyler O'Neill 3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt 4. 3B Nolan Arenado 5. C Willson Contreras 6. DH Nolan Gorman 7. RF Lars Nootbaar 8. LF Jordan Walker 9. SS Tommy Edman

I've made a few changes to this lineup since my last prediction, shifting a few guys up and down the order based off of production and where the club seems to want to play them.

While a few different guys could be argued for the two-hole hitter, it sounds like St. Louis really wants to role with Tyler O'Neill in that spot, and I believe they will. This construction will likely change throughout the year, but it seems like the likely one for Opening Day. O'Neill slashed .615/.722/.769 in his 4 games at the World Baseball Classic, and although his Spring Training stats haven't been great, he's only had 18 at-bats and his batted ball metrics are great.

Nolan Gorman seems to have solidified himself as the DH against right-handed pitching, and honestly, may find himself playing against left-handed pitching a lot too. He's posted a .859 OPS in 47 at-bats this spring and played great defense at second base. Expect Gorman to be in the lineup almost every day.

Having Nootbaar, Walker, and Edman round out your order is downright scary, and something I think fans should be really excited about.