Final predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals on trade deadline day

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The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to remain active between now and the Major League Baseball Trade Deadline at 5 pm central time this evening. You can follow along with me and the rest of the Dealin' the Cards podcast on our Trade Deadline live stream that begins at 3 pm today (or whenever the Cardinals make their next move).

After appearing to fleece the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers in the Tommy Edman for Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham three-team deal yesterday, the Cardinals are hoping to move a few players off of their roster as well as acquire more help for the stretch run. While their moves today may not be as big as Monday's, I still anticipate meaningful action.

With that being said, here are my final predictions for how deadline day will go for the Cardinals, and the ramifications of those moves.

Dylan Carlson is traded, but not for a reliever

The writing has been on the wall for a while now, and frankly, John Mozeliak did nothing to change that narrative with his comments regarding Dylan Carlson on Monday.

Carlson will not be on the Cardinals's active roster for their game against the Texas Rangers tonight. The question really just boils down to whether or not he is traded, demoted, or designated for an assignment.

My guess is that Carlson will be traded by the Cardinals. Other clubs around baseball are reportedly interested in acquiring Carlson, so there should be some suitors. However, I am predicting that the Cardinals will not acquire the reliever they are looking for in this deal, but rather, get a lower-end prospect who won't need to be added to their 40-man roster following the deal.

In my head, it would be very similar to one of the deals the Cardinals made with the Blue Jays at least year's deadline, shipping out shortstop Paul DeJong for relief prospect Matt Svanson. I think they can get a hair more than that for Carlson, but I'm not expecting much.

It will be an unceremonious ending to Carlson's career with the Cardinals, but the breakup is something both sides will benefit from.

Giovanny Gallegos is moved to a reliever-needy team for next to nothing

Like Carlson, the writing has been on the wall that Giovanny Gallegos would be off the Cardinals' roster in the near future for some time now. They have already made the decision to designate Gallegos for an assignment though, forcing them to either trade him or release him and pay his 2025 buyout.

Gallegos has been a huge part of the Cardinals' success ever since he was brought over from the New York Yankees in the Luke Voit trade, becoming more of the most dependable high-leverage relievers in baseball for multiple seasons. It is a pretty incredible feat, as relief pitching is one of the most volatile positions in all of sports, so remaining at the top for so long is such a valuable thing.

The cracks began to show in 2023, and the wheels fell completely off for Gallegos in 2024. After a lengthy injured list stink and drawn-out rehab assignment meant to give Gallegos time to figure things out, he has returned to the club still a shell of his former self and has only been trusted in mop-up situations before the DFA occurred.

Even so, have you seen what kinds of returns clubs are getting for relievers right now? While I do not think Gallegos will bring the Cardinals anything of real value in return, I do believe a club will offer them some sort of trade, whether it is an extremely low-rated prospect, a player to be named later, or cash considerations for Gallegos' services.

In doing this, the Cardinals can save some money this year, and while they only had to pay a small buyout this coming offseason to release Gallegos, they can even pass that off to his next club.

The Cardinals acquire a high-leverage reliever

Boom. The Cardinals had three objectives for this deadline - acquire another starting pitcher (check, Erick Fedde), acquire a right-handed bat who hopefully can play some center field as well (check, Tommy Pham), and another reliever for the bullpen (TBD).

I do believe the Cardinals pull a move off for a reliever before the deadline passes. I'm not sure what the level of that reliever will be, but I did come up with six names that you can look at on our site right now.

Pete Fairbanks or Tanner Scott would be the very top-end options. Names like John Brebbia and other veteran relievers would fit the bill as well. I'm hoping they get a really great dude to add to their mix, but that may cost them a small fortune based on other deals we have seen.

Luckily for St. Louis, the only piece of significance they have parted with at this deadline is Tommy Edman, so if they have to dip into their prospect pool, it will be the only time they do so all deadline. Also, there is no scenario where the Cardinals give up an actual top prospect to get that reliever, so the prospects we are talking about here are not the Tink Hence or Quinn Mathews type.

The Cardinals know they need another reliever and they want to get that done if possible. I do believe they'll find a match to strengthen their bullpen via trade.

How the rotation and bullpen shake out will ruffle some feathers

With the addition of Erick Fedde and a new bullpen arm, things will need to be shaken up in the Cardinals' rotation and bullpen.

Rotation

Even though Andre Pallante has been the club's best starter since he entered the rotation, John Mozeliak acknowledged that he is the likeliest candidate to lose their spot in the rotation right now. They are still weighing other scenarios or expanding to a six-man rotation for a time, but I do believe they'll just remove Pallante.

That would set up the Cardinals' rotation as Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Lance Lynn. The top three of that group won't scare anyone in October but should help the Cardinals compete in those matchups if they get there. At the very least, the acquisition of Fedde should help St. Louis in a major race with their push toward October.

Bullpen

Baking in the fact I believe the Cardinals will add another reliever, I believe their bullpen will fall into place like so:

Ryan Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, Ryan Fernandez, JoJo Romero, and that new reliever will all be a part of their bullpen as their high-leverage options. Having five trusted names in that group goes a long way toward this team competing down the stretch.

I believe that John King is the only other lock at this point for the bullpen, as a number of other names may secure a spot based on injuries, performance, and how the Cardinals want to set things up.

I think Matthew Liberatore will stay in the bullpen, but if they get creative with other options, he could be sent down to Memphis to stretch out in case of emergency this season and to compete for the rotation in 2025. If not, he will be a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen.

If King and Liberatore are in the bullpen, that leaves one more spot, and I think for now it would go to Pallante. Pallante can be the spot starter instead of Liberatore when that need arises or go multiple innings when called upon in this role. But they also could send him to Memphis to stay ready to be reinserted into the rotation at some point.

The problem with that though is that it leaves out the ability for the Cardinals to call up and send down fresh arms with one of those spots. They could do that with King or Liberatore, so maybe they do that for a short time, but I really could see them rostering Roycroft or Leahy over Pallante for a stretch.

The other dynamic is that Steven Matz is making rehab appearances now, and I do think he will return as a reliever for the rest of the season. If that's the case, he'll need to take a bullpen spot from King, Liberatore, or Pallante as well.

The Cardinals deadline moves will be enough to get them to the postseason, but how they will fare their is still to be determined

The question at the top of most Cardinals fans' minds after the Fedde/Pham trade and will continue to be top of mind after the deadline is whether or not the Cardinals will actually make the postseason. The natural follow-up is if they can, how deep can they actually go?

First, I do believe the Cardinals' deadline moves will help them make the postseason. I know things have felt icky the last week and a half or so, but even so, the Cardinals still have the best record in the National League since Mother's Day, and the third-best record in all of baseball behind the Guardians and Astros. And for as bad as July has felt, they are still just 11-12 for the month entering play on Tuesday.

It's been frustrating as of late, but they have won, swept, or split 15 of the last 21 series they've played (71%) and lost or been swept in just six series in that timeframe (29%). Almost every area of the team right now is underperforming compared to how it was when they got hot, and they are not plummeting back into the depths of struggles they had before, they are just scuffling a bit.

And at the same time, it feels like almost every other NL Wild Card contender has gotten hot. That seems to make every loss feel even bigger, even when the Cardinals are firmly in the mix like everyone else.

I believe the offense will be better post-deadline than it was most of the first half. I believe the rotation will stabilize once again. And I also believe that the bullpen will get back to feeling like a strength on most nights.

I believe St. Louis will make the playoffs and could even still make a run at the division.

How they will fair in October though? Well, we still have a long time before we know the answer to that.

How will the Cardinals deadlines moves impact the club?

Can players like Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gorman, and Nootbaar perform in the final few months of the season?

How will the rest of the National League look both performance and health-wise?

All of these things weigh into the Cardinals' chances in October. So for now, let's just stick with the fact that I believe they will be there.

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