Exploring an extension for St. Louis Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt
Some recent frameworks for a deal
The 2023 offseason offered two different contracts that should give the Cardinals and Goldschmidt something to work off of when it comes to his next contract.
Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu both signed lucrative, short-term deals in recent months. Rizzo got two years, $40 million from the New York Yankees for his age 33 and 34 seasons, while Abreu got three years, $58 million to cover his age 36-38 seasons. Abreu is an interesting case, as he won AL MVP two years, albeit in the 2020 shortened season. That is the same time gap that would be between Goldschmidt's MVP and his next contract, assuming he does not win another one.
Abreu also continued to produce in the two seasons following his MVP, averaging a .284/.365/.463 slash line with 22 HR and 96 RBI per season. I'm guessing the Cardinals are hoping for a little bit more power from Goldschmidt over the next two seasons, and even if he declines some defensively, he's still a much better defender than Abreu.
Abreu is a year younger than Goldschmidt will be when his contract is up, so I am not sure a three-year deal is the marker I would use here. But considering someone like Nelson Cruz has been able to ink $15 million one-year deals in his last 30s and early 40s, I think a two-year deal in the $20 million AAV range for Goldschmidt is realistic, assuming his production continues.
My high-end guess would be two years, $50 million for an extension, especially if the deal were to get done sooner rather than later. I could realistically see something in the two-year, $44 million range, but it's all just guesses at this point. The two sides could explore a three-year deal at a smaller AAV, or go year to year with higher AAV deals.
I'll be interested to hear what happens with their talks when they begin to progress. They very well could wait to address it at all until after 2023, but I would not be surprised to at least see the topic approached this spring.