Exploring an extension for St. Louis Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt

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What would an extension for Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt look like?

The St. Louis Cardinals still have some questions for their roster when it comes to the 2023 season, but in the back of President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak's mind, there are some other things that could be addressed on their roster in regards to 2024 and beyond. One of those items on his agenda should be a potential extension for reigning National League Most Valuable Player Paul Goldschmidt.

Goldschmidt, who is now 35-years old, has two seasons remaining on his current contract. While that may seem like a far away issue, the looming question of Goldschmidt's future on the team, and at what price point, will begin to weigh on the minds of the Cardinals front office for the next two seasons.

In a vacuum, extending Goldschmidt seems like a no brainer. The guy is coming off an MVP winning season, one of the best seasons in recent Cardinals history, and embodies everything the Cardinals want in a superstar player. But Goldschmidt will be 37-years old by the time his next contract would start, and its unknown whether or not he will continue to hit at an elite level over the next few seasons.

With all of that being said, the idea of an extension for Goldschmidt is not as simple as one would think, and is worth looking at now when considering the future of the Cardinals. St. Louis could try and get a deal done this off-season, which would help them have clarity in future planning, but is that a wise move? And if so, what would a Goldschmidt extension look like?

Paul Goldschmidt deserves an extension, but there is no rush to finish a deal

Goldschmidt has been incredible for St. Louis since being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks before the 2019 season. In his four seasons with the Cardinals, Goldschmidt has slashed .291/.376/.516 with 106 HR and 332 RBI in 528 games. He has finished top-20 in MVP voting each season with St. Louis and maintained Gold Glove-level defense.

Based on past production alone, wanting to keep Goldschmidt around after 2024 is a no-brainer. The question that has to be considered though is exactly what kind of player will he be going into the 2025 season? The Cardinals have gotten themselves into trouble by extending players too early in recent years, but that is also part of the risk you're willing to take to avoid free agency.

Goldschmidt is a leader in the clubhouse and someone the Cardinals emerging young core would benefit from having around, but with guys like Jordan Walker, Juan Yepez, and Alec Burleson potentially needing at-bats at first base and DH, he'll need to maintain a high level of play for it to be worth investing more resources into him.

By 2025, most of the Cardinals young core will be in arbitration or hitting their free agency years for the first time. Money won't be something they can just throw around. Investing now could be wise in terms of insuring Goldy is here to stay, but they also run the risk of not being able to afford some of their other players, or upgrades via free agency or trade, later.

So if Goldschmidt is interested in an extension before the 2023 season and is prepared to take a discount, they should get a deal done as soon as possible. But if he's asking for a contract that reflects his recent MVP performance, their may be some wisdom in waiting till next off-season to finialize something.

Let's look at some recent examples and project what a Goldschmidt extension could look like in the near future.

Some recent frameworks for a deal

The 2023 offseason offered two different contracts that should give the Cardinals and Goldschmidt something to work off of when it comes to his next contract.

Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu both signed lucrative, short-term deals in recent months. Rizzo got two years, $40 million from the New York Yankees for his age 33 and 34 seasons, while Abreu got three years, $58 million to cover his age 36-38 seasons. Abreu is an interesting case, as he won AL MVP two years, albeit in the 2020 shortened season. That is the same time gap that would be between Goldschmidt's MVP and his next contract, assuming he does not win another one.

Abreu also continued to produce in the two seasons following his MVP, averaging a .284/.365/.463 slash line with 22 HR and 96 RBI per season. I'm guessing the Cardinals are hoping for a little bit more power from Goldschmidt over the next two seasons, and even if he declines some defensively, he's still a much better defender than Abreu.

Abreu is a year younger than Goldschmidt will be when his contract is up, so I am not sure a three-year deal is the marker I would use here. But considering someone like Nelson Cruz has been able to ink $15 million one-year deals in his last 30s and early 40s, I think a two-year deal in the $20 million AAV range for Goldschmidt is realistic, assuming his production continues.

My high-end guess would be two years, $50 million for an extension, especially if the deal were to get done sooner rather than later. I could realistically see something in the two-year, $44 million range, but it's all just guesses at this point. The two sides could explore a three-year deal at a smaller AAV, or go year to year with higher AAV deals.

I'll be interested to hear what happens with their talks when they begin to progress. They very well could wait to address it at all until after 2023, but I would not be surprised to at least see the topic approached this spring.

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What would an extension for Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt look like?

Paul Goldschmidt deserves an extension, but there is no rush to finish a deal

Some recent frameworks for a deal

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