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Dylan Carlson is not the reason the Cardinals' did not trade for Juan Soto

By Josh Jacobs |
St Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals
St Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals / Patrick McDermott/GettyImages
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Let's end the narrative that Dylan Carlson is why the Cardinals' did not trade for Juan Soto

It's time to do some confession and myth-busting today.

I was one of the people who originally got swept up in the "Dylan Carlson was the reason the St. Louis Cardinals did not trade for Juan Soto". You can read my quick piece I wrote instantly reacting to the news that the Padres acquired Soto here. At the time, reporting had indicated that the Cardinals' had the upper hand over the Padres and Dodgers in trade negotiations due to having one specific player: Dylan Carlson.

Most reporting you looked at indicated, before the deadline had passed, that Carlson was going to need to be a significant part of this package in order to get a deal done, and really wasn't any reporting naming any other players as "hang-ups" in any specific trade.

Before getting into some really good reporting done by Derrick Goold since the completion of the 2022 trade deadline, I think it's wise to look at the statement John Mozeliak put out just moments after the deadline when asked by reporters why a deal did not get done. You can watch the video here.

When pressed about why Carlson was not included in the package, he denied that the young outfielder was by any means the hangout in getting a deal done, and then pointed reporters to look at the package the Nationals got in return to see what their asking price was.

If you look at the package San Diego received, as well as Goold's reporting, you'll see what Mozeliak is getting at here.

Any trade for Juan Soto would have likely required Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and other top prospects

Yes, you read that right. Any trade for Juan Soto by the Cardinals would have required a historical haul, evidence by what the San Diego Padres ended up giving up for Soto.

Per reporting from Derrick Goold, who does an excellent job covering the team, the Cardinals felt like they exhausted every option when it came to acquiring Soto. The Nationals were looking to make a deal with St. Louis due to them having a lot of high-upside prospects that interested them.

Washington ended up receiving three top 62 prospects in all of baseball, plus Mackenzie Gore, who had just graduated from being a top-20 prospect, and another quality arm in San Diego's system.

If you just compare the kinds of prospects that the Padres gave up to what the Cardinals would have to, it's pretty jarring. C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Robert Hassell III, Mackenzie Gore, Jarlin Susana, and Luke Voit would have been about the equivalent of giving up Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Tink Hence, Dylan Carlson, and a Matthew Liberatore or Michael McGreevy type.

Sure, the deal could have been slightly different, but the point is, it would have taken a massive haul that I doubt fans are comfortable with.

It's easy to armchair GM these kinds of negotiations and say "I would have given up Carlson and these three prospects that I don't feel are untouchable" for a generational talent like Soto, but that's just not how these things work. Maybe if the Padres were not so desperate for Soto, the Cardinals could have given up less than that package above, but that's not the reality they were in. The Padres were quite literally willing to sell the entire farm, and the Cardinals were not.

Now, the Padres are staring down a potentially $400 million dollar extension for Soto while already handing out major contracts to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Jake Cronenworth. They can probably afford to do it, but after they do, they'll be basically stuck with the team they have and lack a strong farm system to replenish their team.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have both the payroll flexibility to go out and sign multiple high-level players (the first of which being Willson Contrereas, with potentially more to come this offseason), as well as a deep farm system that will continue to strengthen this team and give them opportunities to acquire needs like starting pitching over the next few years.

Here's the final point though, and one that I think Cardinals' fans really need to hear.

The Juan Soto trade saga should be taken in a very positive light

Call me a John Mozeliak or front-office defender, but I genuinely feel like the Soto saga, paired with other recent developments since the trade deadline, should be seen as a great sign for the future of this team and moves they may make.

First, the Cardinals were willing to get into those talks, and had it not been for the insane asking price the Nationals had, there's a good chance they would've gotten a deal done. If you believe they should have pulled the trigger on a package that include Walker, Winn, Carlson, and multiple other prospects, I guess we just disagree there.

But let's be clear, the Cardinals knew what they were getting themselves into. They weren't naïve enough to think that it would take one of those robbery packages that they gave to Arizona or Colorado for Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. They knew it would take multiple, high-level young players, and they remained in negotations for weeks to see if they could pull it off.

They were also willing to take on a major contract in Soto, and who knows if they would have looked to extend him. I know the numbers on his deal will end up being crazy big, but with how young he is and how great of a hitter he is, it would not have been shocking for St. Louis to extend him. At the very least, the club was willing to acquire his $11 million dollar deal for last year, pay him $23 million this year in arbitration, and likely pay him over $30 million next year in his final arbitration year, along with paying Goldschmidt, Arenado, and the rest of this roster.

The moral of the story? The Cardinals are ready to make big moves, they are just being calculated and wise about what moves they make. If they had Juan Soto right now, are they the favorites to win the World Series? Maybe? But they likely don't have Contreras, they'd no longer have Walker, Carlson, Winn, and more, and may still have the same pitching staff they have today.

Instead, as John Mozeliak and the DeWitt family have continued to say, the Cardinals have money to spend this season should they look to take on another big contract in a trade, and they are set up to spend even further this offseason. I really, really like this team's present and future, and believe the front office will strike at just the right time.

In the meantime, say it with me now, heck, comment it down below so we can remind all of Cardinals' Nation...

Dylan Carlson was not the reason the Cardinals' did not trade for Juan Soto

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