Dream Cardinals starting rotation for the 2024 season

1 of 5

The St. Louis Cardinals can go so many different directions this offseason to improve their starting rotation, but what is the dream scenario for the 2024 season? Well, I think I've got it mapped out.

I'm going to put together the dream rotation for the Cardinals next season, one that is both realistic but also requires the Cardinals to go out and be bold. We aren't going to go out and sign all three of the top starting pitchers available (as there is no way that happens), but I will say, this rotation ends up having three legit front-line pitchers.

Here is the budget we have to work with:

The Cardinals have $55 million in expected payroll flexibility heading into the offseason.

We are going to add an additional $16.8 million in budget to spend by trading or non-tendering the following players:

Tyler O'Neill ($5.5 million)
Tommy Edman ($6.5 million)
Dakota Hudson ($3.7 million)
Jake Woodford ($1.1 million)

(Those projected arbitration numbers come from MLB Trade Rumors).

In total: We now have $71.8 million to spend in this dream scenario.

What if I told you we are going to pull all of this off and still have an additional $18 million to spend? Let's take a look at this dream rotation.

Number five starter: Steven Matz or Zack Thompson

There are a ton of different directions I could have gone for this dream scenario, including finding a way to get four starters and knock both of them out of the projected rotation. But once you see the top three starters I acquired for them, I don't think there will be any reason to complain about Steven Matz or Zack Thompson being the number five starter.

Frankly, I think people tend to overrate the quality of number-five starters in baseball. Rarely do you find a rotation top to bottom with guys who have no injury concerns and have sub-3.50 ERAs.

Matz began the year about as bad as he could have and then finished the year on the injured list, so I think most people forget how good he was after his brief stint in the bullpen for the Cardinals. He finished the year with a 3.86 ERA in 17 starts and 8 relief appearances but was excellent during the second half. During those 6 starts, he posted a 2.16 ERA and really looked confident on the mound. In fact, his ERA for the months of June, July, and August was never above 2.25.

Now, there is no reason to believe he'll be that good for the Cardinals in 2024, but to expect Matz to be a quality number-five starter is more than realistic expectations. Sure, he's had his share of injuries, which is a concern, but that's why the Cardinals have acquired rotation depth.

Thompson showed he was more than capable of filling in as a starter if needed, and he'll have a chance to compete with Matz for a spot in the rotation during Spring Training. Names like Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, Drew Rom, Adam Kloffenstein, and more should also factor in as well.

In past years, the Cardinals' rotation has been so thin that relying on depth arms like that was too risky, and yet they did so anyway. Now with this new rotation I have built, I really do not have concerns with needing those guys to fill starts when injuries happen and then making a trade at the deadline for another starter.

Number four starter: Miles Mikolas

If there's one thing we can be sure Miles Mikolas will give the St. Louis Cardinals next year, it's innings.

Miles Mikolas missed the 2020 season due to injury and only logged 44.2 innings in 2021 during his comeback, but outside of that, Mikolas has eclipsed 200 innings three times for the Cardinals and 184 innings during his other full season. That is quite the asset for a team that talks about needing innings.

Mikolas really struggled last year, posting a 4.78 ERA and leading all of baseball in hits allowed with 226. Part of the reason for Mikolas' struggles though is the fact that the Cardinals did ride him so deep into ball games so often. They really relied on Mikolas to give them 6+ innings every time out, even if that meant giving up a few extra runs.

I do not expect Mikolas to be an All-Star again like he was in 2022, but if he can give them a sub-4.50 ERA with 200 innings once again, that would be huge for the back of that rotation. With uncertainty about Matz's health and the health of another name on this list, getting a ton of innings from a guy like Mikolas will take a lot of stress off of the Cardinals' bullpen.

If the Cardinals are in contention at the trade deadline, I wouldn't be surprised to see them acquire another starter who could even bump Mikolas out of the rotation if he is struggling. Regardless, his main role in this rotation is to help the Cardinals get through the 162-game season, as the three names ahead of him on this list would all start over him in the postseason, and I'd imagine even Steven Matz, Zack Thompson, or some deadline acquisition would as well.

Number three starter: Sonny Gray

I told you this rotation is one to get excited about. You could make an argument for Sonny Gray to be the number two starter in this rotation, but based on both talent and how the innings may be structured, I had him coming in at number three.

Gray is going to finish top-3 in American League Cy Young voting this year after posting a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings for the Minnesota Twins this year. Gray is heavily linked to the Cardinals this offseason and will come on a short-term deal at a lower AAV than the other top starters available in free agency.

In this scenario, the Cardinals sign Sonny Gray for three years, $69 million.

Gray has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball for years now and is finally going to get paid for that production. He'll likely net somewhere between $20m and $25m a year annually, so I projected him at $23m a year here.

I don't think anyone expected Gray to be a finalist for the Cy Young again in 2024 as if that was the expectation, he'd be getting north of $30 million a year here. But knowing he has that kind of upside is awesome, and the expectation is an ERA somewhere between 3.00 and 3.40, which is more than good enough to be the third starter here.

Gray is 34 years old, so committing to a three-year deal for him as the number three starter with hopes that one of the pitching prospects can blossom into a significant role by the time he starts regressing would be a great play here by St. Louis.

Gray may not go deep into games all that often, but he'll give the Cardinals high-quality innings when he's out there. Thinking about a playoff rotation, Gray slotting in as the Cardinals' number three starter would be a scary proposition.

Number two starter: Tyler Glasnow

I created three trade proposals the Cardinals could send for Tyler Glasnow a few days ago, as I am increasingly convinced that he makes too much sense for what the Cardinals need this year.

Glasnow made a career-high 21 starts in 2023, which right off the bat, is a bit of a red flag. If Glasnow was a free agent asking for a five-year mega-deal or was going to require a top prospect to acquire, I wouldn't feel the same way about this, but the price to acquire him here should be relatively low.

In this scenario, the Cardinals acquire Tyler Glasnow and $3 million from the Rays for OF/1B Alec Burleson and RHP Sem Robberse.

In my three trade ideas from the other day, I actually had the Cardinals receiving $5 million from the Rays in this deal, but I purposely dropped the money a bit here to show this scenario is realistic, even if the Cardinals do not get significant salary relief from the Rays. That's why I left $18 million left over, as although that's more than enough for two relievers, it gives wiggle room to add more dollars to any of these deals if needed.

Glasnow posted a 3.53 ERA in 2023 with 12.2 SO/9 innings. His stuff is arguably the best in baseball among starters, and his 2.91 FIP goes to show that he pitched even better than the results showed. Glasnow as the number two starter here gives the Cardinals an elite 1-2-3 punch, but they also are able to cover the potential loss of innings from Glasnow if he gets injured.

You'll see who the number one guy is in a moment and how he eats innings, but so does Miles Mikolas here, and Sonny Gray consistently gets in the 180-inning range as well. Even if Glasnow is only giving the Cardinals 20-23 starts in the regular season next year, as long as he is healthy for October (which historically he has been), they can trust Thompson or one of those other internal options to cover the other 9-12 starts Glasnow misses.

Glasnow, due to the injury risk, cannot be the only top-of-the-rotation talent the Cardinals acquire, but his low trade value makes him too intriguing of a trade candiate not to go after. Alec Burleson has a bright future in this league, but the Cardinals can afford to part ways with him for someone like Glasnow. Sem Robberse just came over in the Jordan Hicks trade, but the Cardinals have a lot of arms in Triple-A right now, and again, they need a Glasnow type.

Number one starter: Dylan Cease

Let me start by saying, I would love it if the Cardinals signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but when I think of the best possible rotation they can build, going this route made too much sense.

Dylan Cease will be 28 before the 2024 season and is coming off a down year, but he still has some of the best stuff in baseball and was second in Cy Young voting just one year ago. He is set to make about $8.8 million this year in arbitration and then has one more year of team control left in 2025.

Cease eats innings. He threw 165.2 innings in his first full season in 2021, 184 innings in his elite 2022 performance, and 177 innings in 2023. He also has the strikeout stuff the Cardinals need badly, and will not cost as much as a Logan Gilbert would in the trade market.

In this scenario, I have the Cardinals acquiring Dylan Cease from the White Sox for UTL Tommy Edman, RHP Tink Hence, and OF Chase Davis

That's a lot to give up, I understand that. The Cardinals hold onto their best young infield bats in Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan, don't have to give up top prospects on the cusp of their MLB debuts in Thomas Saggese and Victor Scott II, and still hold onto pitching prospects like Tekoah Roby, Gordon Graceffo, and Cooper Hjerpe. But you've got to give up value to get value, so they lose their number two and number three prospects along with Tommy Edman. I came up with five other Dylan Cease trade packages last week as well that could work instead.

In this dream scenario, the Cardinals now go into 2024 with a rotation of...

1. Dylan Cease
2. Tyler Glasnow
3. Sonny Gray
4. Miles Mikolas
5. Steven Matz

They do all of this while holding onto all of their core position players and the ones set to make an impact soon, and still have around $18 million to spend to add a few relievers or replenish the bench with a veteran position player.

Something else I like about this scenario is it keeps the Cardinals' options open in 2025, 2026, and 2027 as well. Glasnow becomes a free agent after 2024, Cease after 2025, and Gray after 2026. If the Cardinals need to make a major move following each of these seasons, they have money coming off the books. They are not now locked into two or three long-term commitments here, but if things go well with either or both of Glasnow and Cease, they could offer extensions.

On the note about how much capital the Cardinals had to give up in these two trades, losing Tink Hence, Alec Burleson, Tommy Edman, Chase Davis, and Sem Robberse hurts, but the Cardinals have a unique opportunity to replenish their system this next summer with their projected top-5 pick in the MLB draft and selecting in the top-6 in every round following. Sure, they lose their second-round pick with the Gray signing, but they can add significant talent in the other rounds to rebuild this system.

If they do not end up resigning Glasnow and/or Cease, they can get draft picks in return for them as well through qualifying offers, so I'm really not all that concerned here with the talent heading out.

What do you think of this dream rotation for the Cardinals? Let me know on Twitter/X (@joshjacoMLB).

manual

Home / St Louis Cardinals News