Don't let the Cardinals off the hook, they have plenty of money to spend

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The St. Louis Cardinals came into last offseason with the goal to increase payroll and make major additions at catcher and any other positions they could. That is where the infamous quote from President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak arose at the end of the season press conference

“I think the good news is we anticipate our payroll going up next year. I know it will. Obviously, we had a lot of success at the game this year. So thank our fans for that. I definitely know that our payroll will go up.”
John Mozeliak

While fans and media have pointed out that the Cardinals could have done a lot more in the offseason, they were met with this response from Mozeliak in January, one that I think has a lot of wisdom in it, but also shows an overall failure from the organization.

“We did have an opportunity to increase payroll, which it will be higher than what we played at last year. So that’s fact number one. And number two, just because you have resources, you aren’t going to just go spend it wildly on something that doesn’t make sense.
John Mozeliak

Yes and amen. The Cardinals have gotten into too many bad deals in recent years where just because they spent money does not mean it was a wise choice at all. I agree with Mozeliak that spending money for spending's sake is not wise. But I also believe it is very clear that the Cardinals will have plenty of resources this next offseason, and no one will be feeling sorry for them if they say "Well, we didn't like the options and their price" when next spring rolls around.

The Cardinals will have plenty of money to spend this next year, and they must find the right deals and do so.

The salary relief and already available budget give the Cardinals plenty of room to make multiple significant transactions

Too often as fans, people will look at an offseason and play a bit of "MLB The Show" with it. They'll suggest the Cardinals simply need to sign two huge free agents and trade a bunch of their "spare parts" for a superstar. That's just not realistic. But, this trade deadline and offseason should be ones where the Cardinals do make headlines in both free agency and the trade market, no excuses this time.

Let's break this down a bit together.

Current Payroll

Where the Cardinals currently stand, Spotrac has them ranked with the 16th-highest payroll in baseball at $161 million in 2023. In March, Forbes released their annual rankings of the most valuable teams in baseball, with St. Louis coming in as the 10th most valuable team ($2.55 billion) and an operating income ranking 11th ($43.1 million). Six of the teams ranked ahead of them in payroll this year are less valuable teams in Forbes' rankings, and nine of them are making less profit than the Cardinals.

Sure, there is uncertainty facing their current TV deal with Bally Sports Midwest and what the future of their media rights will be like, but the Cardinals do phenomenally in their local ratings, ranking number one by a large margin in top MLB RSNs by household rating in 2022 and averaged 139% more viewers than the number two channel in the primetime slot. Whatever their next TV deal is, it'll likely outdo their current one substantially.

Bill Dewitt III indicated that payroll can be top-10 in baseball

If you take a closer look at the payroll rankings, the Cardinals are $18 million shy of the 15th-highest payroll, the Colorado Rockies. To enter the top 10 in payroll, they'd have to increase payroll by another $29 million from what it is right now. Why do I look at that top 10 payroll number? Because Bill DeWitt III indicated that was a number they consider as well.

During a long interview with Kevin Slaten, DeWitt III mentioned the Cardinals are known to be in the top 10 in payroll, and then quickly avoided using that language again. The Cardinals are the kind of organization that when they are truly competitive, they should be spending in that range, and DeWitt III knows that.

So right now, I'd argue that on the low end, they should have another $18 million or so to spend on payroll for this current team, and possibly up to $29 million. That's significant room to add to this team.

2024 payroll opens up in an even bigger way

When you begin to look at the 2024 payroll, that number skyrockets. The Cardinals could have about $61.2 million coming off of their books this offseason with the retirement of Adam Wainwright, free agents to be in Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Drew VerHagen, Jordan Hicks, and Chris Stratton, the likely decline in option or potential pickup and trade of Paul DeJong, and likely cutting bait with arbitration-eligible players in Tyler O'Neill and Dakota Hudson.

In all likelihood, the Cardinals will not retain most of those names, and even if they bring back a few, they'd still have a significant amount of money to spend. Arbitration raises for some players or potential extensions will eat away at that number, but overall, that is between $79.2 million and $90 million in budget. Even with raises and extensions, there's really no excuse not to make significant upgrades.

Disclaimer - it's never quite as simple as it looks on this side when crunching numbers, but even so, the point remains the same.

So what does that mean for the Cardinals then?

This is the offseason that the Cardinals must make aggressive trades and signings

When you look at the free agent market this coming offseason, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Lucas Giolito, Josh Hader, Blake Snell, Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, Tyler Mahle, and Sean Manaea are all available along with Flaherty and Montgomery. Names will likely be available in trade as well, such as Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and any other names that may arise.

There should be no shortage of options for St. Louis. They can make multiple upgrades by being shrewd in both free agency and the trade market. The club is in the perfect position to do both, as they have star talent on their team, up-and-coming talent to partner with it, and a surplus of talent that they can use to acquire the needs that they have. The presence of so many young contributors should help St. Louis to go after bigger names in free agency as well since they are not having to worry about paying so many people on the roster.

In December, Mozeliak said "Our model will be tested" in light of the spending around baseball. While some of baseball's biggest spenders, like the Phillies, Mets, and Padres, may be struggling, the Cardinals cannot claim that their model has been successful this year with the abysmal start they have had to this season.

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Honestly, as frustrating as this year has been, it could end up being the best thing that could have happened to this organization. Emphasis on could, as seasons like this also have the potential to blow up clubs in really bad ways. My hope is that this season forces the Cardinals to finally look in the mirror and approach things differently going forward, or risk becoming a franchise where it rides off the coattails of its history, fooling itself into believing it's doing better than it really is.

dark. Next. no goldy trade. 4 reasons why STL won't trade Goldschmidt

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