Deep dive into Steamer projections: What to expect from Cardinals pitchers in 2024

Starting Rotation

Sonny Gray, as is presumed by all fans of the Cardinals, will be the team's ace next year. He is projected to have a 3.82 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and strike out 8.62 batters per nine innings. Fangraphs expects him to pitch 180 innings. While his ERA would be more than one point higher than it was in 2023 (2.79), his FIP is right in line with last year's statistic. Gray allowed a minute 0.39 home runs per nine innings last year; that number is sure to increase next year.

The next four pitchers according to Steamer are all within 0.5 fWAR of each other. Lance Lynn (2.3 fWAR), Kyle Gibson (2.1 fWAR), Miles Mikolas (2.0 fWAR), and Steven Matz (1.8 fWAR) would round out the rotation. Lynn gets the greatest boost in fWAR numbers due to his BABIP projections. His ERA and FIP would actually be the worst of the top-five pitchers in the rotation, but he would do a good job at limiting hits. His HR/9 ratio is a bit high for comfort, but it is in line with his career statistics.

The most interesting player out of these four to me is Steven Matz. Matz is projected to only pitch 116 innings. If he were to pitch a comparable amount of innings to the other pitchers (175 innings, for example), he would be near 2.7 fWAR in 2023, the second-best total on the staff. Steven Matz has the talent to be a #2 or #3 starter, but his health has always been a concern. Steamer projects him to pitch in twenty-nine games but only be a starter in nineteen of them.

As far as the reserve starters go, Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy are figured to be the next-best pitchers. Interestingly enough, Libby is projected to pitch in thirty games this year but only start in five of them. In fifty-one innings, Steamer projects Liberatore to have a 4.05 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and strike out 8.12 batters per nine innings, good for an fWAR total of just 0.4.

Sem Robberse is included on Steamer's projections, but they expect him to start only two games and pitch a total of nine innings. I don't see him getting a chance to start for the major league team over guys who have already had a chance such as Drew Rom and Zack Thompson. It is possible he leapfrogs them or Thompson is relegated to the bullpen, but I would expect either Rom or Thompson to see starts before Robberse.

Relievers

The top arms in relief for the Cardinals are projected to be Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Zack Thompson, Giovanny Gallegos, and Andre Pallante. Helsely is leading the pack with an fWAR projection of 1.0, and the remaining players follow in order.

Helsley is tied for the sixth-highest fWAR total among all relievers, trailing only Mason Miller of Oakland, Jhoan Duran of Minnesota, Edwin Diaz of New York, Jose Alvarado of Philadelphia, and Pete Fairbanks of Tampa Bay. Ryan Helsley has been one of the best closers these past three years despite facing some injuries last year, and he figures to be the team's closer in 2024.

The team's newest additions, Nick Robertson (Tyler O'Neill trade) and Ryan Fernandez (Rule 5 Draft), are projected to accumulate only 0.4 fWAR. Robertson is projected to have a low groundball percentage and pitch fifty-six innings. Ryan Fernandez will likely start the season in the minors, but he could make the Major League roster out of the gate. Neither of these new acquisitions are high-strikeout pitchers, but they both do a fine job at limiting walks.

JoJo Romero had a breakout year last year in the bullpen, and he is projected to see a glut of innings most probably in high-leverage situations. Zack Thompson is more than likely going to be a swingman out of the bullpen. These two pitchers should complement Helsley comfortably. Giovanny Gallegos is projected to rebound nicely from last year (4.42 ERA, 9.7 K/9in 2023). Steamer projects him to have a 3.98 ERA and 9.41 K/9 ratio.

While the Cardinals' bullpen won't be the best part of the team, it has a decent amount of depth with players such as Zack Thompson, Giovanny Gallegos, and Andre Pallante. One player to keep an eye on is Adam Kloffenstein, the right-handed pitcher acquired from Toronto. He has high strikeout potential, and despite struggling in his first taste of AAA baseball, he does a great job at limiting home runs. Steamer expects him to pitch only six innings next year, but if he shows out in Memphis, he could see an early promotion to the major league bullpen.

The Cardinals' bullpen won't blow anyone away, but it has decent depth and a closer at the back end who is a top-8 reliever in all of baseball.