Crafting a Cardinals trade for Mike Trout

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The Los Angeles Angels recently stated that they would trade their All-Star centerfielder, Mike Trout. Trout is a generational talent, and he will go down in baseball history as one of, if not the best players of all time. His power, speed, defense, and contact have been tops in the league for a decade. Simply put, Mike Trout is a transcendant player who changes the look of a team immediately.

While the St. Louis Cardinals have some options for center field already, including the ascendant Tommy Edman, getting Mike Trout would be a massive boost to an already stacked lineup. Trout would fit in the middle of the lineup with boppers such as Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Gorman. Defensively, he would slot in at center field, providing greater defensive depth and flexibility.

In his Hall-of-Fame career, Trout has a slash line of .301/.412/.582 for an OPS+ of 173. 2023 has been a bit of a down year for him, but he is still playing at a great level, posting an OPS+ of 130. While injuries have been the story of his career these last few years, Trout is still a top-5 player in the league. He is in the top 100 players in the league for fWAR this year. Defensively, Trout has played well in center. Since 2016, Trout has only logged three negative outs above average values, in 2016, 2017, and 2019. In 2023, he has a +4 OAA value. He is ranked in the 86th percentile in range and the 75th percentile in arm strength.

Trout's contract muddles things slightly. Whoever gets Trout for 2024 and beyond would have him for his age-32 through age-39 seasons. He has 7 years and $245 million left on his contract. Additionally, Trout has a full no-trade clause, thus complicating the deal even more. The Cardinals could take on all of that money, but that would hamper them financially for a few years. His contract would also push them further into the luxury tax threshold, a place the DeWitt family would not like to be.

In order to save money, the Cardinals would have to send some high-end prospects to the Angels to sweeten the deal. Let's look at three scenarios for the Cardinals to land Mike Trout.

Scenario #1: Angels cover the money

John Mozeliak has fleeced teams in the past; see the Nolan Arenado deal for context. It is possible the Cardinals get the Angels to take the large bulk of Trout's contract ($150+ million), and the Cardinals keep key pieces to the lineup. It is unlikely that Perry Minasian will fall for that trap. If the Angels take on a large part of Trout's remaining salary, expect favorite names on the major league roster and key prospects to be sent over to Los Angeles.

If the Angels take the bulk of Trout's contract, leaving the Cardinals with an AAV of $10-$12.5 million over the next 7 years, the Cardinals would have to send quite the conglomeration of talent. We are talking about a package of three of Jordan Walker, Tink Hence, Masyn Winn, and Nolan Gorman PLUS Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Dylan Carlson, or Tommy Edman. Also, look for the Cardinals to throw in an A+ player or two for depth to the Angels system.

This trade would severely hurt the team's positional depth and future prospect depth. While the Cardinals would have plenty of money to spend over the next few offseasons, losing at least three current or future starters who have All-Star potential would be painful to swallow. A scenario in which the Angels take on the bulk of Trout's remaining contract would be costly for both teams; therefore, scenario #1 is the least likely to happen.

Scenario #2: High prospects, high dollars

This scenario isn't as likely as a mix between dollars and prospects, but it is probably more likely than the first scenario. Here, the Cardinals receive plenty of money to offset Trout's massive contract. In this scenario, it is possible the Cardinals receive up to $120 million in exchange from the Angels. That would cover about half of his remaining salary. That is a pretty penny for the Angels to pay, but it provides the Cardinals with financial flexibility, and it doesn't hamper the front office's free agency plans too much.

The issue with this scenario would be the players the Cardinals would have to send back. Surely, the Angels would be asking for quite the package if they are making Mike Trout a $17.5 million player a year. It would be reasonable for Los Angeles to ask for AT LEAST one of Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Tink Hence, and Nolan Gorman. Additionally, the Cardinals would probably have to send over Zach Thompson or Matthew Liberatore, and other major league players such as Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, or Brendan Donovan.

While losing a top prospect, a lower-end starter and a heavy contributor to the major league roster would hurt the Cardinals, getting a middle-of-the-order bat for the next 7 years would help offset that pain. Also, the Cardinals would maintain financial flexibility to fill in the rotation and depth spots. While this isn't an ideal trade, it is certainly a possibility.

Scenario #3: A balanced trade

In our final scenario, the Cardinals take on the bulk of Trout's contract, but they receive some financial assistance. Perhaps they bring it down to $25-$30 million a year. The Justin Verlander deal this past trade deadline would be a good place to look for comps. While Verlander is a pitcher, his contract could give us some context. When the Mets traded Verlander to the Astros, the Mets also sent over $35 million to help fill in the remaining $51 million or so between the end of 2023 and all of 2024. That means the Mets are paying most of Verlander's remaining salary, excluding his vesting option for 2025. Houston sent Drew Gilbert (#52 overall prospect) and Ryan Clifford (#6 in the Mets system) in exchange.

If the Cardinals were to get $35-$50 million back from the Angels, Trout's contract would be expensive still, but more manageable, saving them at least $5 million a year. This would also require the Cardinals to send fewer players/prospects. Instead of a package of high-end prospects and talented major leaguers, St. Louis could instead send one or two prospects with major league depth pieces, something they have in droves.

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St. Louis would probably have to part with one of Tink Hence, Jordan Walker, or Masyn Winn to land Trout. Should they send one of these three, however, the Cardinals wouldn't have to send over other high-end prospects. They could supplement these prospects with MLB players such as Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, or even Nolan Gorman. A balanced trade is probably the most likely route should the Cardinals pursue Trout.

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