Comparing the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers by position group for 2023

First Base

I'll save you some reading if you'd like, major advantage to St. Louis here. Paul Goldschmidt is coming off an epic MVP campaign in 2022 and is showing no signs of slowing down.

The Brewers' first baseman, Rowdy Tellez, did hit 35 HRs in 2022, but his .767 OPS doesn't touch that of Goldschmidt, who led the NL with a .981 OPS. Goldschmidt is also the far superior defender, providing great value for St. Louis again there too.

Major advantage for the Cardinals here.

Second Base

Had the Brewers not traded Kolten Wong to the Mariners, this would have been a very interesting argument. But now that they will be relying on Luis Urias, Abraham Toro, Owen Miller, and prospect Brice Turang, there really is no argument against the Cardinals here.

Brendan Donovan is coming off a third-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting and won the Gold Glove for the utility position. Nolan Gorman hit 30 HRs across the Triple-A and Major League levels in 2022 and could take a major step forward with his bat in 2023.

Advantage Cardinals.

Shortstop

So far, the Cardinals have a 3-0 lead in the position battles, but this is where things get interesting for the Brewers.

Willy Adames posted a 120 wRC+ in 2021 and looked like a force at the plate for Milwaukee. He hit some regression in 2022, dropping down to a 109 wRC+ but still boasting a ton of power with his 31 HR. Many will say that Adames is a superior hitter to Tommy Edman, but in 2022, Edman's wRC+ was 108, just a tick behind that of Adames.

I would expect Adames to bounce back some in 2023 and outproduce Edman at the plate, but I don't think it will be a large difference. They are two different kinds of hitters. Adames is more of the big power bat that doesn't get on base a ton but does damage, while Tommy has a much higher OBP and is a doubles machine.

Where there is a major difference in performance for the two is their defensive ability. In about half as many innings as Adames had at shortstop in 2022, Edman had more outs above average and fielding runs prevented while having just 3 fewer defensive runs saved. Adames is a really good defender at shortstop which oftentimes goes overlooked, but Edman has shown he is clearly better, especially if he is given a full season at the position.

So, based on 2022, I would say Edman is the superior player here. For 2023, it could really go either way, but I'll go with the guy who finished 13th in all of baseball in WAR (Edman) over Adames coming off of a down year.

Advantage Cardinals, but not by much.

Third Base

This is basically the same story as first base. The clear advantage here is for the Cardinals, and it's probably an even wider gap here.

The same options the Brewers will be relying on for second base (Toro, Miller, Urias, and Turang) also happen to be their third base options, and they are league-average players at best.

Nolan Arenado is coming off a top 3 MVP finish in 2022, another Gold and Platinum glove, and is my early pick to win MVP in 2023. His 130 wRC+ mixed with elite defense makes him one of the best players in baseball.

One again, advantage for the Cardinals.

Outfield

This one has a lot of moving pieces, as both teams have 4-5 options for their outfield, and some of those players will find time at DH as well. For the sake of this argument, I'll count Jesse Winker as a DH only in this conversation, and do the same for Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson.

Currently, the Brewers' outfield consists of Christan Yleich, Garrett Mitchell, and Tyrone Taylor, with prospects Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer set to make an impact at some point in 2023.

Yelich was down again in 2022, posting a 111 wRC+, he has not been close to his MVP form since 2019, so I think it's safe to wonder now if he'll ever be an All-Star level player again, especially if they will raise questions about Tyler O'Neill, who is only one year removed from that form and struggled with injuries in 2022.

Tyrone Taylor is a league-average player and does not have the ceiling of guys like Dylan Carlson or Lars Nootbaar. Nootbaar broke out in the second half of 2022 and looked like an All-Star level player. Dylan Carlson struggled in 2022 but also dealt with injuries like O'Neill.

O'Neill, Carlson, and Nootbaar have higher offensive ceilings as a unit than the Brewers' outfield and wipe the floor with them when it comes to defensive value. The Cardinals trio could all be Gold Glove candidates in 2023, and I expect them to be one of the best outfields in baseball.

Garrett Mitchell is an exciting young player for the Brewers. He only got to play in 28 games in 2022 but mashed with a 136 wRC+ in that sample size. Mitchell could be a really good player this coming season, but the Cardinals have a pretty good counter player of their own in the form of Jordan Walker.

Many predict Walker to win NL Rookie of the Year in 2023. He's a list of the last 10 players who have won that award: Michael Harris II, Jonathan India, Devin Williams, Pete Alonso, Ronald Acuna Jr., Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, Jacob deGrom, and Jose Fernandez. It's safe to say the league sees elite potential in the Cardinals' 21-year-old outfielder.

Advantage to the Cardinals.

Designated Hitter

Outside of William Contreras, the other big addition to the Brewers lineup this off-season was Jesse Winker, whom they dealt Kolten Wong for. Winker was one of the best hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching from 2019-2021 but really struggled during 2022 after being traded from the Reds to the Mariners. Winker still maintained a great OBP despite the down year, and even if he doesn't hit as he did in Cincinnati, I would bet he bounces back in 2023.

Juan Yepez is primed to breakout at the plate this year in the DH role, and the Cardinals will also use guys like Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman at the position as well as rotating some of their regulars there. There is a ton of potential for high-level production for St. Louis, which is another huge positive for this Cardinal lineup.

Still, I would give the advantage to Jesse Winker here, as I am someone who believes he will return to form in 2023. The path toward St. Louis having a better DH spot would be if they find the right platoon mix against right and left-handed pitching. Winker is a monster against right-handed pitching but struggles against left-handers. If the Cardinals can put up numbers against both, they could easily outproduce Winker.

For now though, advantage to the Brewers.

Starting pitching

Kind of like first base and third base, we all know what the answer here is going to be, but this time in favor of the Brewers. Milwaukee has a clear advantage when it comes to starting pitching in this matchup.

Cobrin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are ace-level pitchers, and unless Jack Flaherty bounces back in a big way, the Cardinals do not have someone who can match up with them. When things are going right for Miles Mikolas and Jordan Montgomery, they can keep up with them to an extent in any given matchup, but Burnes and Woodruff are the kinds of talent that St. Louis just does not have in their rotation.

Freddy Peralta is another really good starter in their rotation, giving them an incredible 1-2-3 punch. The Cardinals arguably have the better number four and five starters, but overall, the Brewers take the cake here in this matchup.

If the Cardinals end up targeting a front-line starter this season, the gap could close quite a bit, but for now, big advantage to the Brewers.

Bullpen

This is maybe the most interesting conversation out of all of the matchups and one I could go either way on. After trading away Josh Hader, the Brewers went from an elite bullpen to a mess for quite a while, but still have a ton of talent in the forms of Devin Williams, Jake Cousins, Peter Strzelecki, Matt Bush, and others.

If you are comparing 2022 production alone, I think the easy choice is the Cardinals. Ryan Helsley is a top 3 reliever in baseball, Giovanny Gallegos is an elite setup man, and the likes of Zack Thompson, Andrew Pallante, and Jordan Hicks give the Cardinals plenty of arms to work with. Guys like Genesis Cabrera, Chris Stratton, JoJo Romero, Gordon Graceffo, and Connor Thomas could add to that equation at some point as well.

If we know anything about the Brewers though, they know how to develop a good bullpen. I would not be surprised as all if they rebound in a big way in 2023, but for now, the recent record leans heavily in the way of St. Louis, and there are even more arms who could be leaned on if needed.

Advantage, the Cardinals.

Final Verdict

Sure, the Brewers got better, but they got significantly worse during the second half last year, so there's a lot they needed to improve. The Cardinals did the opposite, getting drastically better in the second half of 2022 and improving upon that this off-season. The gap between the Brewers and Cardinals was wide by the end of 2022, and I don't believe the Brewers have done nearly enough to shrink that.

Unless there are significant changes between now and the season, the Cardinals are the clear favorites in the National League Central and will win it by a comfortable margin.