Cardinals vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Thursday, July 6th

Our expert best bet on the over/under between the Cardinals and Marlins.
Jul 5, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Jordan Walker (18) hits a two-run
Jul 5, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Jordan Walker (18) hits a two-run / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The Cardinals can't stay out of their own way, losing on a two-run error to the Marlins to fall to 16 games under .500.

St. Louis wraps up a series in Miami on Thursday evening in hopes of finding an answer after losing all three to the Marlins on the road, can the Cardinals get on track? The team will hope to be pounce on rookie Eury Perez, who had his first setback in the big leagues last week against the Cardinals.

Let's break down the odds, and dish out a best bet:

Cardinals vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Cardinals vs. Marlins prediction and pick

Perez finally got touched up, but it did take 10 starts for it. Perez, couldn't get out of the first inning after allowing six earned runs to the Braves the first time he even allowed more than three runs in the prior nine starts. However, this has been coming for the rookie, who has an xERA of 3.59, far higher than his 2.47 actual ERA mark.

He'll face a Cardinals lineup that has fallen off this season, but still possesses pop against right handed pitching, checking in seventh in OPS against righties this season. I believe that while Perez has a bright future in the bigs, he isn't as lockdown as his surface level numbers indiciate.

Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty's high walk rate gives me pause from firing on the Cardinals. His high walk rate that nears five per nine innings and his opponent batted ball in play mark of .349, makes me question if he can pitch long enough to limit run scoring chances for the Marlins.

The Cardinals have the sixth worst bullpen this season in terms of ERA this season and had to patch together nearly all nine innings of work after Matthew Liberatore exited after recording one out.

I'll target the over on Thursday.