Cardinals: Trade negotiations reveal who the Cardinals value the most

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The St. Louis Cardinals showed their hand recently in who they value the most among their young core.

For months now, there has been so much speculation among St. Louis Cardinals fans as to which of their young players they may be most willing to deal in a trade. Names like Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Dylan Carlson, and more have been thrown around in trade rumors, whether it was the Juan Soto sweepstakes or their interest in a catcher.

Since the Soto saga ended and the Cardinals secured their new catcher in the form of Willson Contreras, we have been give a lot more information about who the Cardinals are willing to part with to improve their roster, and which young players they are not looking to move. And honestly, this may be a bit surprising to many.

The Cardinals offered Nolan Gorman and Dylan Carlson in the Sean Murphy trade

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Oakland Athletics were seeking a package of Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Gordon Graceffo in any Sean Murphy trade, which was declined by the Cardinals brass. This makes a lot of sense, as the package of the three would be too much for a catcher even of Murphy's caliber,

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic followed up that story with some sourcing of his own, which shed even more light onto who exactly the Cardinals valued within their organization.

"The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, citing a source, reported the A’s sought a return from the Cardinals that included outfielder Lars Nootbaar, Gold Glove-winner Brendan Donovan and a power young pitcher like Gordon Graceffo. However, another source briefed on the talks said the A’s wanted Nootbaar or Donovan plus Graceffo. The Cardinals were unwilling to trade any of those players, and instead wanted the A’s to choose two from a group of four consisting of outfielder Dylan Carlson, second baseman Nolan Gorman, outfielder Alec Burleson and first baseman Juan Yepez."
Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic

Okay, this is very interesting. There are conflicting reports about whether or not the A's asked for all three of Nootbaar, Donovan, and Graceffo or just one of Nootbaar or Donovan and Graceffo, but either way, the club showed a lot of willingness to deal guys like Dylan Carlson or Nolan Gorman, who many believed to be valued higher than Nootbaar or Donovan in the organization.

You may have your own preference or rankings of the Cardinals young position players, but what we do know now is that St. Louis sees Nootbaar and Donovan as key parts of their future, and would be willing to part with other young position players before dealing those two. Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn's names have not come up in any reports, and that is likely because the Cardinals value those two even higher.

The Cardinals negotiations with the Blue Jays for catcher Danny Jansen shed even more light into just how highly they value Nootbaar specifically.

The Cardinals offered the Blue Jays Ryan Helsley over Lars Nootbaar

Perhaps the biggest shocker of recent trade negotiations was the Cardinals preference to trade All-Star closer Ryan Helsley rather than part with Nootbaar in a Danny Jansen trade, per Derrick Goold.

Why exactly would the club have any interest in moving their elite closer for someone like Jansen? Well outside of his elite 2022 season, Helsley best season was arguably in 2019 when he had a 2.95 ERA in 36.2 innings of work. It's clear Helsley has taken multiple steps forward since then, but without the track record of other elite closers, his value is just not as high as his production was last season. If Helsley puts together another elite season in 2023, then that changes.

It once again stresses how much this club believes in Nootbaar. Helsley is coming off of a dominate season, while Nootbaar more so had a dominate few month stretch. But despite the small sample size of tanigble production, Nootbaar's underlying metrics indicate that he can be a very, very producitve player in this league.

I am sure more reports will come out over the coming weeks and months about the Cardinals trade preferences, especially as they explore potential deals for starting pitching. It's becoming clear now who the Cardinals value the most within their organization, but also means that St. Louis is once again at a crossroads when deciding which young talent to keep around. Let's take a look at just how big of a moment this is for the club.

St. Louis cannot afford to let go of the wrong young talent again

This front office has made a lot of shrewd moves when it comes to major trade acquisitions. Outside of the Marcell Ozuna trade (which at the time was a celebrated move), the club has typically come out on the winning side of their big moves (see Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado). One area they really can be critiqued though is how they have let go of young players who would go on to be very productive major leaguers somewhere else, especially their outfielders.

Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia are the two names that stand out most as former Cardinal outfielders that they deciced to part with. Arozarena was sent to Tampa Bay in the Matthew Liberatore trade, and Garcia was sent to Texas for cash considerations. Both have gone on to be very productive outfielders and would arguably be upgrades in the current St. Louis outfield.

Between Nootbaar, Carlson, Gorman, Donovan, Tyler O'Neill, Jordan Walker, and even guys like Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson, the Cardinals have a wealth of young bats they could commit to. The crossroads they face here is that they cannot afford to commit to the wrong young bats this time around. If they believe Nootbaar and Donovan are more valuable than guys like Gorman and Carlson, great, just don't be wrong here. If the Cardinals trade away from this pool and those guys go on to out perform the remaining young bats, there will be real questions raised about the Cardinals talent evaluation and development process.

The encouraging sign is that the Cardinals seem willing to deal from thier young talent pool to improve the club if the right deal is there. Guys like Gorman and Carlson are highly valued in baseball, and could bring back an impact arm or bat if the Cardinals decide to make a move. Continue to monitor the Cardinals closely when it comes to the trade market.

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