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Cardinals rumors: Could St Louis trade Nolan Arenado to the Dodgers?
With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, there are lots of crazy rumors floating around Major League Baseball these days. Could this one be the craziest? Or could it be downright rational?
Would a team be interested in acquiring a 10-time Gold Glove winner, one who is third in the majors in RBI, and who happens to be a hometown guy? Of course. Would the team that already has that player be interested in dealing him away? Of course not. Well, maybe.
According to a report by the Los Angeles Times' Jorge Castillo, "(t)he Dodgers have engaged in talks with the St. Louis Cardinals to acquire the eight-time All-Star third baseman," Nolan Arenado. Does that mean the Cardinals are looking to trade Arenado? Not at all. But having discussions with another team about a variety of players can lead to a deal coming together, so both teams' front offices should perform their due diligence to find out what the other team is thinking as the August 1 deadline approaches.
The appeal of Arenado is obvious for any team. He's a terrific overall player, one who combines terrific defense, strong batting skills, a tenacious passion to improve, and a deep-seated desire to win. He's the type of ballplayer teammates, fans, and front offices love to have as part of their franchise.
So the why of the Dodgers' interest is straightforward. But what about the how? Could a deal come together? Should a deal come together? There are two sides to every coin, so let's look at both sides of this potential scenario.
Why the St Louis Cardinals would be crazy to do this trade
The Cardinals undoubtedly are having a rough 2023 season, their worst year in a long time. The Cardinals also want to win in 2024. How do you do that? By having a strong group of players, and Arenado certainly fits that description.
Arenado demonstrated a will to win in St. Louis by choosing not to opt out of his contract over the winter. Given the deals top players signed last offseason, it's conceivable he chose to forego $100 million or more to remain in the Gateway City. Considering the Cardinals' winning ways this century - just one losing season since 1999 - Arenado must have felt like the team was going to remain in contention for the foreseeable future.
With the way the front office has been able to build a playoff-caliber team season after season, a return to contention next year isn't a given, but it's certainly the expectation. With Paul Goldschmidt across the diamond for what could be his final year wearing the birds-on-a-bat jersey, a group of young position players joining them, and President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak's stated deadline focus on adding "pitching, pitching, and pitching," things look promising for next season, as they so often do.
Winning requires talented players. Arenado is one of the most talented players in the game. If St. Louis wants to win, they should keep him and build around him in pursuit of the postseason berth that's a yearly target of everyone involved with, or cheering for, the Cardinals.
How this trade could make sense for the St Louis Cardinals
As we've covered, the Cardinals aren't good this year. They need to add multiple starting pitchers to their rotation to compete in 2024. Goldschmidt turns 36 years old in a couple of weeks. And Arenado has seen his defense slip such that this almost certainly will be the first season in his 11-year career in which he doesn't win a Gold Glove.
This team has holes, lots of them. It also has enough depth at a few positions to make the moves to patch those holes. And moving Arenado in exchange for multiple players to fill positions of need is not an entirely implausible path.
The specifics in Castillo's article include adding a starting pitcher - Jack Flaherty orJordan Montgomery - to the deal in order to improve the return package. The players coming back would be lead by young starting pitching, with Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot, and Emmet Sheehan specifically mentioned, though Michael Grove certainly should be another consideration.
Castillo also suggests one or both of Max Muncy and Chris Taylor could be included, which would only make sense if taking on their salaries improved the prospect package. Muncy is the more reasonable of the two since he's only signed through this season, though he has a $10M option for next year. As an all-or-nothing thumper who hits homers, walks a lot, and strikes out a ton, he has value, but probably isn't a great fit for the Cardinals. Taylor is a worse hitter and a more versatile defender, but he's owed $30 through 2025, so his appeal is rapidly approaching zero.
If the Cardinals could get Miller and another young hurler, and bring Muncy along to finish the season as a pinch hitter and backup, there are some other benefits to this move. Rookie "outfielder" Jordan Walker could return to his natural position of third base, getting him off the grass where he has the grace of a newborn giraffe. Outfield responsibilities could be returned to Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Lars Nootbaar in some configuration.
St. Louis also would have Arenado's salary (and Adam Wainwright's) to use elsewhere, such as on a free agent starting pitcher or two. A colleague suggested Aaron Nola and Julio Urias, which might be too rich for Bill DeWitt's blue blood but is within the realm of possibility.
Make your young stud hitter more comfortable and more valuable at the same time. Sign a top-of-rotation starter, maybe even two. Bring in young starters for the back of the rotation who advance to roles of greater responsibility when the contracts of Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz end in a couple of seasons. Settle your outfield for next year. There are a lot of potential benefits to this plan.
It's a big if, and the type of bold move that hasn't worked out well for Mozeliak, but if things broke the right way, the Cardinals actually could come out ahead by trading away one of their two best players. Maybe it's not the craziest idea after all.