Cardinals Rumors: Contract extension predictions for 2 key players

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Tim Britton is considered one of the gurus of contract extensions. Using past extensions for similar players and accounting for inflation, Britton is able to make assumptions for certain extensions for certain players. He broke down these conversations into 4 different buckets (each individual article is linked, subscription required): pending free agents, pitchers in arbitration, batters in arbitration, and players who haven't yet reached arbitration.

Britton goes into fantastic detail on each player, as he analyzed about 50 of them as a whole. He states in his initial piece that these are not signings that are likely to happen. Rather, he is simply giving a potential contract.

Two St. Louis Cardinals players made Tim Britton's list: first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielder Lars Nootbaar. I will not provide Britton's commentary on either player, as I encourage you to go read his piece. Instead, I will provide his projections and give my own thoughts on them.

Paul Goldschmidt
Projection: 4 years, $97 million

Paul Goldschmidt is entering his age-36 season, and he will turn 37 in early September. This contract projection by Britton includes a restructuring of this year's contract, so he will be signed for his age-37 through age-39 seasons with this extension. The average annual value (AAV) of his contract is close to $25 million, a bit of a jump from his $22 million salary this year.

Goldschmidt is a Hall of Famer, especially after his 2022 campaign. The concern here, however, is that players typically regress at a 0.5 fWAR rate per season after turning a certain age. Goldy accumulated 3.7 fWAR last year. That means he will rack up 3.2 fWAR the first year, 2.7 fWAR the second year, 2.2 fWAR the third year, and 1.7 fWAR in the final year according to this trend.

Goldy could buck this trend and turn back the clock, but it is likely he won't reach the heights he did again during his peak years. You are paying Paul Goldschmidt to retire a Cardinal with this contract regardless of the cost. The price per win above replacement is a bit high with this extension, but given what Goldschmidt has provided since he was brought to the Cardinals in 2019, he is worthy of this. It is pricey, but to see a legend retire in Cardinal Red would be celebrated by fans.

Lars Nootbaar
Projection: Seven years, $68 million

Lars Nootbaar still has one year of pre-arbitration and three years of arbitration remaining. He will reach arbitration next year. His four years of team control complicate the deal. It will have to be longer than some fans may be comfortable with, and Britton emphasizes that with a seven-year deal.

A few months back, I proposed an eight-year extension worth $69 million for Nootbaar. When looking at extensions for Corbin Carroll (8 years, $111 million) of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Michael Harris II (8 years, $72 million) of the Atlanta Braves, we can garner a better idea of a Nootbaar extension. Lars is neither of these players, and he is significantly older than both outfielders, but their contracts are good starting points.

Nootbaar has a career slash line of .246/.351/.429 for an OPS+ of 116. That's a good corner outfielder stat line, especially when paired with his plus defense and the potential to play in center field when necessary. His contract prediction is valued at a little less than $10 million per year, but that makes up for lower salaries in pre-arbitration and arbitration.

Historically, arbitration players have to have awards attached to their names such as Rookie of the Year votes, Silver Sluggers, or Gold Gloves to see huge escalators on their arbitration salaries. Due to Nootbaar's lack of national recognition thus far, he likely wouldn't have exceeded $10 million in any of his arbitration years barring fantastic seasons between 2024 and 2026.

The bulk of his salary will likely come during what would have been his free-agent years. A seven-year deal buys out the remainder of his pre-arb and arb years in addition to his first three free-agency years. This contract worries me slightly due to Nootbaar's concerning health history; he has yet to play in 120 games in two full seasons. He has the talent that is worthy of an extension of this size, but his health makes this concerning.

I would wait a year to give this contract to Lars Nootbaar. If he can prove that he can play in at least 75% of the games in a season, the Cardinals should absolutely discuss a contract extension with him next season. If Nootbaar continues to experience injuries, however nutty they may be, then perhaps saving money and riding out his arbitration years is the best bet for the organization.

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Paul GoldschmidtProjection: 4 years, $97 million

Lars NootbaarProjection: Seven years, $68 million

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Paul Goldschmidt
Projection: 4 years, $97 million

Lars Nootbaar
Projection: Seven years, $68 million