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3 prospects the St. Louis Cardinals should be concerned about
With the Cardinals' new-look farm system, there are some prospects slipping down the prospect chain.
After being sellers at the trade deadline for the first time in what felt like an eternity, the Cardinals' top prospect list has been refreshed with some brand-new faces.
MLB.com has updated all 30 teams' top 30 prospect lists as the draft and trade deadline have since passed. There are several repeats from the top 30 list from 2022 including Masyn Winn and Tink Hence taking the top 2 spots. This year's draft picks Chase Davis ( #3 prospect) Travis Honeyman ( #11) and Quinn Matthews ( #23) cracked the list right away. Six players that were acquired in trades at the deadline are on the list, led by Tekoah Roby at number 5. And there is a handful of players who have been in the Cardinals minor league system for multiple seasons but are now on the top prospect list for the first time, that group is led by speedy outfielder Victor Scott II.
Also on the list are players that scouts remain high on, but have not developed the way scouts or the organization were expecting in 2023. Some players have dropped down on the top 30 prospect list, Michael McGreevy fell from #8 to #12, Luken Baker fell from #17 to #19, and there are 6 players who were on the top prospect list in '22 but are not in '23.
Some of this is due to the fact that the Cardinals traded for prospects at the deadline this year which naturally dropped some players out, however, that doesn't mean that the prospects that went down are having bad seasons, Luken Baker is the prime example of that.But there are a few players who had a significant fall in their prospect ranking, and a significant fall in their play in 2023 that the Cardinals organization should be concerned about.
Three prospects the Cardinals should be concerned about
1. Outfielder Joshua Baez
The Cardinals were very high on Baez when they drafted him in the second round of the 2021 MLB draft out of high school and signed him to a generous $2.25 million dollar signing bonus. After having wrist surgery early last season, Baez was promoted to Palm Beach ( A ball) and had an impressive .286/.418/.540 slash line in limited time.
Unfortunately for Baez 2023 has not brought him the same fortune. According to his scouting report, his two greatest traits are his ability to hit for power and he has a cannon of an arm, and I don't think we have seen enough of either of those traits this season.
In 71 games with Palm Beach this season, Baez has only hit 7 home runs, and in 126 total minor league games in the Cardinals organization, he only has 13 long balls. The potential is clearly there as 25 of his 49 hits this year have gone for extra bases but one other concern is he is not getting enough hits mainly due to his proneness to strike out.
Baez's K rate has been over 30% in each of his three professional seasons, granted strikeouts are more common in the game of baseball now than ever before, but with the speed that Baez possesses ( 20 stolen bases in 22 attempts this season) you'd like to see him put the ball in play more.
When it comes to the arm strength Baez possesses in the outfield, we have not seen it this much in 2023 mainly because almost half of his appearances this year have been as a designated hitter. In 38 games in the field, he has committed 3 errors and has just 1 outfield assist.
It has also been a huge struggle for Baez in the month of August, as he has a .115/.361/.154 slash, and he has gone down on strikes in 8 of his last 14 at-bats, dropping his season average down to .210. If it all comes together for Baez ( still just 20 years old) he has the potential of being a five-tool player, but his lack of production this season could leave people in the Cardinals organization worrisome.
2. Infielder Jonathan Mejia
Jonathan Mejia was signed by St.Louis as an international free agent last season and didn't waste any time showing what he could do, slashing .267/.418/.479 in the Dominican Summer League. Mejia also showed great discipline at the plate ( 33 walks in 45 games) and showed off impressive arm strength for a middle infielder.
But when it comes to the 2023 season, it has been dreadful, to say the least for Mejia. Across 36 games with the Florida Coast League Cardinals and the Palm Beach Cardinals, he is only hitting .157 with just 6 extra-base hits. He is still drawing walks at a high rate (.315 on-base percentage) but other than that, he is not doing much at the plate. He has also struggled immensely in the field, he has committed 13 errors in only 32 total games at shortstop this season, and including 18 errors in the Dominican Summer League last season, it's obvious that's something that needs to be worked on.
Despite this being a very disappointing season so far for Mejia, MLB Pipeline still thinks highly of him, ranking him 21st on the Cardinals' top 30 prospects list, only a slight drop from last year where he was #16. And with the fact that Mejia is only 18 years old, and with infielders Masyn Winn along with the newcomers to the organization Thomas Saggese and Cesar Prieto ahead of Mejia on the prospect pool, the Cardinals can be patient with him and just hope that 2023 is a fluke.
3. Pitcher Connor Thomas
When the Cardinals selected Connor Thomas in the 5th round of the 2019 draft, he was part of a theme we saw in how the Cardinals were drafting at that time, looking for sinker ball pitchers that rely on ground balls to get outs. Thomas fits that build, a fastball that hardly touches 90 MPH but had a reputation as someone that gets weak contact and doesn't give up free passes at Georgia Tech. That is why Thomas was ranked 20th on the Cardinals' top 30 prospect list at the end of last season.
Thomas also found himself on the top 30 list at the start of this season but he has since been removed because his minor league success has stalled out since he got to Triple-A last season. After a quick jump up the ranks in the Cardinals farm system, Thomas spent all of last season in the rotation for Memphis, recording a 5.47 ERA in 25 starts. This season has not fared out much better this year with Memphis, as he currently has a 5.77 ERA in 14 games ( 11 starts).
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As you would expect knowing that Thomas is a ground ball pitcher that doesn't throw for velocity, he has had issues with hits in Triple-A, and he is not getting that many swings and misses, those two traits make it harder to pitch in the higher levels. Since 2022, Thomas has allowed 267 hits in 199 innings pitched, which calculates to approximately 1.34 hits per inning, and a 7.1 K/9 rate. On top of that, he has not had the control he has had in the past as his walk rate is the highest it's been in his minor league career, which has led to a concerning 1.83 WHIP this season.
The Cardinals targeted pitching prospects at the deadline, preferably guys that have swing-and-miss stuff as they have been one of the worst teams when it comes to getting strikeouts from their pitching staff in the past few seasons. That seems to be something the Cardinals will want to address and fix as soon as possible and I don't think Thomas has the stuff to help with that. Along with the high hit totals, the steady rise in walks, and with him being 25 years of age, the future for Thomas seems to look bleak in the Cardinals organization.