Cardinals' prospective pitchers' performances at Busch Stadium

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The St. Louis Cardinals have been connected to a variety of pitchers this offseason, both through trades and free agency. Some of these pitchers are high-end, top-of-the-rotation guys, while others could be filler pieces in the middle or back of the starting rotation.

Regardless of how the team acquires these pitchers, they must be able to pitch well, especially at Busch Stadium. According to Statcast's Park Factors on Baseball Savant, St. Louis has ranked as the 20th most hitter-friendly park from 2021 to 2023. With a park factor of 99, Busch is a ballpark that slightly favors pitchers. For context, Coors Field in Colorado is the most hitter-friendly park with a park factor of 112; conversely, T-Mobile Park in Seattle is the least hitter-friendly park with a park factor of 93.

Mind you, whoever the Cardinals sign will also have to pitch frequently in other National League Central stadiums; therefore, I will also glance at pitchers' numbers in Chicago, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh to see where else they might succeed or struggle.

Let's analyze how nine pitching targets this offseason have pitched at Busch Stadium in their careers up to this point.

Michael Wacha - Free Agent

Michael Wacha pitched for the Cardinals from 2013-2019, so he has quite the game log at Busch Stadium III. In 449.2 innings, Wacha has a 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a 2.84 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Wacha's best season came in 2014 when he had a 2.44 ERA paired with a 1.05 WHIP in 55.1 innings. He has given up 41 home runs and batters have a .702 OPS against him in Busch.

Among stadiums where he has pitched 50 or more innings, Busch Stadium isn't his strongest. Wrigley Field is where he struggled the most with an ERA of 5.76 and a WHIP of 1.46. Should Wacha return to the St. Louis rotation, he will see some success, but he may struggle at other National League Central ballparks. For as hitter-friendly of a park Great American Ballpark is, Wacha has seen decent success there. In 63.1 innings, Wacha has a 2.56 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP; he has only given up 4 home runs in the otherwise home-run-happy GABP.

Edward Cabrera - Trade

Edward Cabrera just finished his third season in the majors. He has pitched solely for the Miami Marlins, and he has struggled slightly. I discussed him in my mid-tier article as someone who could be a candidate for a bounceback season. In just five innings at Busch Stadium, Cabrera has a 1.80 ERA (1 earned run), 1.00 WHIP, and has six strikeouts to three walks. Walks have always been a problem in his career, but six strikeouts in just five innings is noteworthy.

Among other National League Central stadiums, Cabrera has pitched very well at Wrigley Field. In ten innings, Cabrera has a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 4.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has, however, struggled at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. In just 3.2 innings, he gave up 2 earned runs, walked three batters, struck out only two, and finished with a WHIP of 2.46.

Lucas Giolito - Free Agent

Lucas Giolito has pitched in eight seasons, and he has spent time with Washington, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, and Cleveland. Most of his time has been spent with Chicago. Giolito has only pitched in one game at Busch, and he pitched 6.1 innings, gave up three runs, walked two batters, and struck out seven. He has a 3.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.95 WHIP. That one game came in 2018, the same year he was an All-Star and finished 6th in Cy Young voting.

Giolito has started three games at Wrigley Field, and he has a 6.89 ERA (12 earned runs in 15.2 innings) and a 1.53 WHIP, but he has struck out 22 batters for a 12.6 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio. He has seen much more success at Miller Park in Milwaukee, pitching twelve innings to the tune of a 2.25 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. He has struck out twelve batters and walked five.

Blake Snell - Free Agent

Blake Snell, similar to Lucas Giolito, just finished his 8th professional season. He started his career with Tampa Bay and won a Cy Young in 2018. He has pitched in San Diego these past three seasons. In three games at Busch Stadium (2017, 2022, and 2023), Snell has a 1.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 2.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has pitched in a total of 20 innings, and he shut out the Cardinals once in his three games.

Snell has mostly played against the National League West and American League East, two divisions the Cardinals don't see too often during the regular season. However, Snell has pitched in 11.2 innings at PNC Park, and he struggled mightily; he has an 8.49 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and has ten strikeouts to two walks. His first two appearances in 2017 and 2021 hurt his numbers severely. In ten innings in Chicago, Snell has a 1.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and has struck out ten batters.

Tyler Glasnow - Trade

Tyler Glasnow just finished his eighth season as well. He received an extra year of arbitration, and he is projected to make $25 million dollars in 2024 through arbitration, his last year before free agency. Glasnow has pitched four times in St. Louis, two starts in 2016 and two relief appearances in 2018. He has pitched a total of 13.1 innings, and he has an ERA of 3.38, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 1.57 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Overall, Glasnow has pitched pretty well in St. Louis, limiting hits and not allowing many runs.

Glasnow started his career in Pittsburgh, so he is pretty familiar with PNC Park. In 75.2 innings, he has a 5.23 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, and \he has struck out 82 batters to 47 walks. He has not pitched very well in Pittsburgh. Glasnow has had great success in Cincinnati; he has a 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 2.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio in fourteen innings.

Aaron Nola-Free Agent

Aaron Nola is one of the top free agents available this winter. He has spent his entire professional career in Philadelphia. Nola is very familiar with Busch Stadium, and he has pitched 41.2 innings across seven seasons. In seven starts, Nola has a 3.89 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and has struck out just below nine batters per nine innings. He has multiple starts greater than six innings long as well.

Nola is also relatively familiar with Wrigley Field. In 36 innings across six starts, he has a 5.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a 2.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Hitters have fared well against him in Wrigley, as he has given up at least three runs in each of his six starts. Nola's ERA is greater than 4.30 in every stadium in the NL Central (4.37 in Milwaukee, 4.88 in Pittsburgh, and 4.50 in Cincinnati).

Shane Bieber-Trade

Shane Bieber has pitched exclusively for the Cleveland Guardians. In his 6-year career, Bieber has been an All-Star three times, won a Gold Glove once, and has won a Cy Young award. He has made two starts at Busch Stadium, pitching six innings in each game. He gave up only one run each time. His 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 10 strikeouts are all strong numbers. Cleveland won both games he pitched in at Busch Stadium.

Bieber has pitched 33.1 innings in Cincinnati, the most in any National League Central stadium. He has a 3.51 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and has struck out 39 batters. He pitched 8 innings twice and only failed to make it into the 6th inning in one of his five starts at Great American Ballpark. He has never pitched at Wrigley Field or Milwaukee, and he didn't give up a run in six innings in Pittsburgh. Bieber would surely succeed should he be traded to St. Louis.

Sonny Gray-Free Agent

Sonny Gray is the most veteran of the pitchers on this list. Gray has been heavily linked to the Cardinals this offseason. He is pretty familiar with Busch Stadium from his days with Cincinnati between 2019 and 2021; in 35.1 innings, Gray has an ERA of 3.31, a WHIP of 1.08, and a 2.92 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has given up only three home runs in 6 starts. Gray's 35 strikeouts at Busch are also noteworthy.

Most of Sonny Gray's innings in the majors have occurred in Oakland and Cincinnati. He has accumulated 194 innings at Great American Ballpark with an ERA of 3.66, a WHIP of 1.12, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.64. He has only given up 26 home runs in 37 starts. Gray has also pitched well in Milwaukee (2.48 ERA in 32.3 innings) and Pittsburgh (1.35 ERA in 13.1 innings). He hasn't pitched well in Chicago, though, as he has a 4.71 ERA in 21 innings.

Jordan Montgomery-Free Agent

Jordan Montgomery is pretty familiar with Busch Stadium and Cardinal fans are very familiar with Montgomery himself. St. Louis acquired Monty at the 2022 Trade Deadline, and they dealt him to Texas just this past summer. Montgomery has made 20 starts at Busch Stadium for a total of 115 innings in his career. He has a 3.21 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and he has allowed only nine home runs. Busch Stadium has been friendly to the southpaw.

Montgomery is also familiar with the other National League Central ballparks due to his tenure in St. Louis. He has pitched in 4 games at Wrigley Field for a total of 26.2 innings. He allowed 13 earned runs in those starts for an ERA of 4.39. He also has a WHIP of 0.98. Montgomery has pitched well in Pittsburgh (2.31 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 11.2 innings) and Milwaukee (one start, seven innings, three hits, two walks, and nine strikeouts). In his one start in Cincinnati, he went four innings and gave up four earned runs this past season.

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