Cardinals: Playing buy, sell, or hold with starting pitching options

The St. Louis Cardinals have been linked to nearly a half dozen starting pitchers who will be free agents this offseason. Dollar figure estimates have also been tossed around for these starters. Let's play "Buy, Sell, or Hold" with these dollar figures!

Jordan Montgomery

Cardinals Stats and Facts on X posed the question below.

Jordan Montgomery was the resident ace of the Cardinals' staff since he joined the team midway through the 2022 season. His stats show that clearly. He was the best pitcher in the rotation, and he has only proven his value even more in the playoffs this year.

Last year, Carlos Rodon signed a 6-year contract worth $162 million with the New York Yankees. Rodon was always a good pitcher who had some injury issues. He signed a 1-year "prove it" deal with the San Francisco Giants after the 2021 season, and boy did he prove it. He was an All-Star with a 2.88 ERA, 2.25 FIP (MLB leading), 1.028 WHIP, and struck out 12 batters per nine innings in 2022. An AAV north of $25 million was very reasonable for that stat line.

Rodon and Montgomery are the same age, but Rodon entered free agency one year before Monty will be this year. The chart below details Monty's stats up to this point in his career compared to Rodon's stats up to last year's offseason.

These statistics are very similar. Montgomery walks fewer people than Rodon, but Rodon strikes out more batters than Monty does. Rodon has an extra season, but not a full season's worth of innings due to injuries; Montgomery is one year older than Rodon was at last year's offseason.

Part of Montgomery's contract depends on its length. The longer the contract, the lower the AAV more than likely. The shorter the contract, the higher the AAV. Montgomery's agent is Scott Boras, so the bidding will get intense, and the price will probably be high. If a potential contract is 6 years, $150 million, I'm buying.

Verdict: 6 years, $150 million: buy. The length is a bit concerning, but Montgomery is a durable pitcher who can get you plenty of innings. He will also pitch with success and keep your team in it. Having him in his early-to-mid 30's would be a benefit to the rotation.

Aaron Nola

Before the 2023 season, Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies had discussions about a contract extension. Up to that point, he had led the league in games started once in his career, complete games twice, shutouts once, received Cy Young votes in three different seasons, was an All-Star once, and even received some MVP votes in 2018. Nola will likely receive a couple of Cy Young votes this year, and he has been pitching very well this postseason.

Nola's stat line for his career is comparable to Robbie Ray's of two years ago. In 8 seasons, Ray had an ERA of 4.00, a FIP of 4.04, a WHIP of 1.312, he struck out over 11 batters per nine innings, and he had an ERA+ of 110. Nola, on the other hand, has a career ERA of 3.72, a 3.38 FIP, 1.129 WHIP, 9.4 Ks/9 innings, and an ERA+ of 113. Nola's stats are slightly better than Ray's across the board; however, Robbie Ray ended the 2021 season by winning the American League Cy Young Award. He went into the offseason with a trophy in his back pocket, only bolstering his case for a long and expensive contract.

If Brandon Kiley's contract idea is a potential contract the Cardinals would offer Nola, I would hold on to that contract. An 8-year, $200 million contract gives him an AAV of $25 million, only $2 million more than Ray's. My only hesitation with this contract would be the length. Nola has a lot of innings on his arm (1,422 in the regular season alone). He has pitched a lot of innings in the postseason these last two years as well. A contract that brings him into his late-30's gives me hesitation.

Verdict: 8 years, $200 million: hold. If the length is shortened a little, I would be more comfortable. Signing Nola at a value less than Carlos Rodon and only slightly more expensive than Robbie Ray of a few years ago is appealing. Perhaps a 6-year contract would be preferable with a slightly higher AAV to appease Nola.

Sonny Gray

The St. Louis Cardinals have been heavily linked to Sonny Gray. He hasn't seen as much focus and attention as other pitching options such as Aaron Nola and Blake Snell on the national scene, but Gray would be a strong fit for the Cardinals' rotation.

In Josh Jacobs' recent article discussing the Cardinals' interest in Gray, he mentioned a shorter contract (3-4 years) in the $25 million range. Due to Gray's age (34 this offseason) being higher than Montgomery's and Nola's, the length of the contract would be noticeably shorter than his counterparts' contracts. It does not make much financial sense for a baseball team to sign a starting pitcher into his late 30's and early 40's.

Sonny Gray is coming off his best year in 2023. He finished the season with a 2.79 ERA, 2.83 (league-leading) FIP, 1.147 WHIP, and he allowed only 0.4 home runs per nine innings. Gray was voted to the All-Star game and seems to be in the running for the American League Cy Young. Despite Minnesota's early departure from the playoffs this year, Sonny Gray is not the one to be blamed. In his 2 starts this postseason, he pitched a total of 9 innings, struck out 12 batters, and allowed 4 runs.

The former first-round pick has a career ERA of 3.47, an 8.7 Ks/9 rate, and has allowed less than 1 home run per nine innings. Gray is very strong at limiting runs and big hits, and his strikeout rate is acceptable, especially when compared to the paltry rates of recent starters for the Cardinals. St. Louis won't be alone in their bidding for Sonny, as plenty of other big-name teams need pitching. Hopefully, the smaller market of St. Louis is appealing to him, and hopefully, he is willing to pass on Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, and even Chicago to play for the Cardinals.

Gray's numbers at his age are eerily similar to Chris Bassitt's from last year. Bassitt had a 3.45 career ERA, a 3.81 FIP, struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings, and has a 1.196 WHIP in 8 years in the majors. Last offseason, Bassitt signed a 3-year, $63 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. He had a qualifying offer attached to his name, meaning whoever did sign him would have to forfeit a draft pick, but that is still a good place to start when envisioning a contract for Gray. Gray is also coming off the best year of his career, so recency bias will push Gray's contract up slightly. If Josh Jacobs' estimation of a 3-year contract worth $75 million is accurate, that is pretty tough to turn down.

Verdict: 3 years, $75 million: buy. Sonny Gray was a top-2 pitcher in the American League this year. To have him in the rotation at a price comparable to Chris Bassitt from last year is very reasonable.