Cardinals: Playing buy, sell, or hold with starting pitching options

The St. Louis Cardinals have been linked to nearly a half dozen starting pitchers who will be free agents this offseason. Dollar figure estimates have also been tossed around for these starters. Let's play "Buy, Sell, or Hold" with these dollar figures!

Jordan Montgomery

Cardinals Stats and Facts on X posed the question below.

Jordan Montgomery was the resident ace of the Cardinals' staff since he joined the team midway through the 2022 season. His stats show that clearly. He was the best pitcher in the rotation, and he has only proven his value even more in the playoffs this year.

Last year, Carlos Rodon signed a 6-year contract worth $162 million with the New York Yankees. Rodon was always a good pitcher who had some injury issues. He signed a 1-year "prove it" deal with the San Francisco Giants after the 2021 season, and boy did he prove it. He was an All-Star with a 2.88 ERA, 2.25 FIP (MLB leading), 1.028 WHIP, and struck out 12 batters per nine innings in 2022. An AAV north of $25 million was very reasonable for that stat line.

Rodon and Montgomery are the same age, but Rodon entered free agency one year before Monty will be this year. The chart below details Monty's stats up to this point in his career compared to Rodon's stats up to last year's offseason.

These statistics are very similar. Montgomery walks fewer people than Rodon, but Rodon strikes out more batters than Monty does. Rodon has an extra season, but not a full season's worth of innings due to injuries; Montgomery is one year older than Rodon was at last year's offseason.

Part of Montgomery's contract depends on its length. The longer the contract, the lower the AAV more than likely. The shorter the contract, the higher the AAV. Montgomery's agent is Scott Boras, so the bidding will get intense, and the price will probably be high. If a potential contract is 6 years, $150 million, I'm buying.

Verdict: 6 years, $150 million: buy. The length is a bit concerning, but Montgomery is a durable pitcher who can get you plenty of innings. He will also pitch with success and keep your team in it. Having him in his early-to-mid 30's would be a benefit to the rotation.

Sonny Gray

The St. Louis Cardinals have been heavily linked to Sonny Gray. He hasn't seen as much focus and attention as other pitching options such as Aaron Nola and Blake Snell on the national scene, but Gray would be a strong fit for the Cardinals' rotation.

In Josh Jacobs' recent article discussing the Cardinals' interest in Gray, he mentioned a shorter contract (3-4 years) in the $25 million range. Due to Gray's age (34 this offseason) being higher than Montgomery's and Nola's, the length of the contract would be noticeably shorter than his counterparts' contracts. It does not make much financial sense for a baseball team to sign a starting pitcher into his late 30's and early 40's.

Sonny Gray is coming off his best year in 2023. He finished the season with a 2.79 ERA, 2.83 (league-leading) FIP, 1.147 WHIP, and he allowed only 0.4 home runs per nine innings. Gray was voted to the All-Star game and seems to be in the running for the American League Cy Young. Despite Minnesota's early departure from the playoffs this year, Sonny Gray is not the one to be blamed. In his 2 starts this postseason, he pitched a total of 9 innings, struck out 12 batters, and allowed 4 runs.

The former first-round pick has a career ERA of 3.47, an 8.7 Ks/9 rate, and has allowed less than 1 home run per nine innings. Gray is very strong at limiting runs and big hits, and his strikeout rate is acceptable, especially when compared to the paltry rates of recent starters for the Cardinals. St. Louis won't be alone in their bidding for Sonny, as plenty of other big-name teams need pitching. Hopefully, the smaller market of St. Louis is appealing to him, and hopefully, he is willing to pass on Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, and even Chicago to play for the Cardinals.

Gray's numbers at his age are eerily similar to Chris Bassitt's from last year. Bassitt had a 3.45 career ERA, a 3.81 FIP, struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings, and has a 1.196 WHIP in 8 years in the majors. Last offseason, Bassitt signed a 3-year, $63 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. He had a qualifying offer attached to his name, meaning whoever did sign him would have to forfeit a draft pick, but that is still a good place to start when envisioning a contract for Gray. Gray is also coming off the best year of his career, so recency bias will push Gray's contract up slightly. If Josh Jacobs' estimation of a 3-year contract worth $75 million is accurate, that is pretty tough to turn down.

Verdict: 3 years, $75 million: buy. Sonny Gray was a top-2 pitcher in the American League this year. To have him in the rotation at a price comparable to Chris Bassitt from last year is very reasonable.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto hails from Japan, and he currently plays for the Orix Buffalo of the Nippon Professional Baseball. Redbird Rants' own Andrew Wang recently took a deep dive into what fans can expect from Yamamoto, and I would highly recommend you read his piece. Wang compared Yamamoto to another NPB transfer, Kodai Senga.

So how does Yamamoto compare to Senga? In short, he’s much younger and he’s quite a bit better. From 2020-2022, Yamamoto pitched to a 1.70 ERA with a 0.900 WHIP and 9.8 K/9, surpassing Senga’s 2.19 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 in every metric except for strikeouts.

Wang also states that Yamamoto will easily surpass Kodai Senga's $15 million AAV. Senga signed a 5-year, $75 million contract last offseason, and he hasn't disappointed for the New York Mets. Yamamoto is significantly younger than Senga, so it is presumed the length of his contract will be at least 6 years.

NBC Sports recently stated that multiple executives expect Yamamoto to sign a contract closer to 7 years, $200 million. That would place his AAV around $28 million. That is a high dollar value, and it would absolutely limit what the Cardinals' front office could do this offseason to build up a weak starting rotation.

Verdict: 7 years, $200 million: hold. While Yamamoto is expected to be a very strong pitcher here in the states, there is always some variability when transferring Japanese statistics to MLB. I would like to see how the market settles after pitchers such as Nola, Snell, and Ohtani sign to see which big market teams are left and what they are willing to spend on Yamamoto.