Cardinals: Playing buy, sell, or hold with starting pitching options

Aaron Nola

Before the 2023 season, Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies had discussions about a contract extension. Up to that point, he had led the league in games started once in his career, complete games twice, shutouts once, received Cy Young votes in three different seasons, was an All-Star once, and even received some MVP votes in 2018. Nola will likely receive a couple of Cy Young votes this year, and he has been pitching very well this postseason.

Nola's stat line for his career is comparable to Robbie Ray's of two years ago. In 8 seasons, Ray had an ERA of 4.00, a FIP of 4.04, a WHIP of 1.312, he struck out over 11 batters per nine innings, and he had an ERA+ of 110. Nola, on the other hand, has a career ERA of 3.72, a 3.38 FIP, 1.129 WHIP, 9.4 Ks/9 innings, and an ERA+ of 113. Nola's stats are slightly better than Ray's across the board; however, Robbie Ray ended the 2021 season by winning the American League Cy Young Award. He went into the offseason with a trophy in his back pocket, only bolstering his case for a long and expensive contract.

If Brandon Kiley's contract idea is a potential contract the Cardinals would offer Nola, I would hold on to that contract. An 8-year, $200 million contract gives him an AAV of $25 million, only $2 million more than Ray's. My only hesitation with this contract would be the length. Nola has a lot of innings on his arm (1,422 in the regular season alone). He has pitched a lot of innings in the postseason these last two years as well. A contract that brings him into his late-30's gives me hesitation.

Verdict: 8 years, $200 million: hold. If the length is shortened a little, I would be more comfortable. Signing Nola at a value less than Carlos Rodon and only slightly more expensive than Robbie Ray of a few years ago is appealing. Perhaps a 6-year contract would be preferable with a slightly higher AAV to appease Nola.

Sonny Gray

The St. Louis Cardinals have been heavily linked to Sonny Gray. He hasn't seen as much focus and attention as other pitching options such as Aaron Nola and Blake Snell on the national scene, but Gray would be a strong fit for the Cardinals' rotation.

In Josh Jacobs' recent article discussing the Cardinals' interest in Gray, he mentioned a shorter contract (3-4 years) in the $25 million range. Due to Gray's age (34 this offseason) being higher than Montgomery's and Nola's, the length of the contract would be noticeably shorter than his counterparts' contracts. It does not make much financial sense for a baseball team to sign a starting pitcher into his late 30's and early 40's.

Sonny Gray is coming off his best year in 2023. He finished the season with a 2.79 ERA, 2.83 (league-leading) FIP, 1.147 WHIP, and he allowed only 0.4 home runs per nine innings. Gray was voted to the All-Star game and seems to be in the running for the American League Cy Young. Despite Minnesota's early departure from the playoffs this year, Sonny Gray is not the one to be blamed. In his 2 starts this postseason, he pitched a total of 9 innings, struck out 12 batters, and allowed 4 runs.

The former first-round pick has a career ERA of 3.47, an 8.7 Ks/9 rate, and has allowed less than 1 home run per nine innings. Gray is very strong at limiting runs and big hits, and his strikeout rate is acceptable, especially when compared to the paltry rates of recent starters for the Cardinals. St. Louis won't be alone in their bidding for Sonny, as plenty of other big-name teams need pitching. Hopefully, the smaller market of St. Louis is appealing to him, and hopefully, he is willing to pass on Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, and even Chicago to play for the Cardinals.

Gray's numbers at his age are eerily similar to Chris Bassitt's from last year. Bassitt had a 3.45 career ERA, a 3.81 FIP, struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings, and has a 1.196 WHIP in 8 years in the majors. Last offseason, Bassitt signed a 3-year, $63 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. He had a qualifying offer attached to his name, meaning whoever did sign him would have to forfeit a draft pick, but that is still a good place to start when envisioning a contract for Gray. Gray is also coming off the best year of his career, so recency bias will push Gray's contract up slightly. If Josh Jacobs' estimation of a 3-year contract worth $75 million is accurate, that is pretty tough to turn down.

Verdict: 3 years, $75 million: buy. Sonny Gray was a top-2 pitcher in the American League this year. To have him in the rotation at a price comparable to Chris Bassitt from last year is very reasonable.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto hails from Japan, and he currently plays for the Orix Buffalo of the Nippon Professional Baseball. Redbird Rants' own Andrew Wang recently took a deep dive into what fans can expect from Yamamoto, and I would highly recommend you read his piece. Wang compared Yamamoto to another NPB transfer, Kodai Senga.

So how does Yamamoto compare to Senga? In short, he’s much younger and he’s quite a bit better. From 2020-2022, Yamamoto pitched to a 1.70 ERA with a 0.900 WHIP and 9.8 K/9, surpassing Senga’s 2.19 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, and 10.2 K/9 in every metric except for strikeouts.

Wang also states that Yamamoto will easily surpass Kodai Senga's $15 million AAV. Senga signed a 5-year, $75 million contract last offseason, and he hasn't disappointed for the New York Mets. Yamamoto is significantly younger than Senga, so it is presumed the length of his contract will be at least 6 years.

NBC Sports recently stated that multiple executives expect Yamamoto to sign a contract closer to 7 years, $200 million. That would place his AAV around $28 million. That is a high dollar value, and it would absolutely limit what the Cardinals' front office could do this offseason to build up a weak starting rotation.

Verdict: 7 years, $200 million: hold. While Yamamoto is expected to be a very strong pitcher here in the states, there is always some variability when transferring Japanese statistics to MLB. I would like to see how the market settles after pitchers such as Nola, Snell, and Ohtani sign to see which big market teams are left and what they are willing to spend on Yamamoto.