Cardinals Opening Day Roster Prediction 3.0: How roster looks after multiple injuries

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The St. Louis Cardinals have had a lot of setbacks over the last week, creating some major shifts to their projected Opening Day roster.

Just a week ago, I published our "2.0 Opening Day Roster Prediction" after the Brandon Crawford signing and some uncertainty around Tommy Edman's wrist. Since then, Edman's status has become even bleaker, and now both Sonny Gray and Lars Nootbaar may miss Opening Day as well.

The good news is that none of those injuries appear to be things that should keep them out for very long, but with Opening Day fast approaching, it looks like the Cardinals' roster will be without three of their key pieces when they open up in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.

While it's important to remember that it's a 162-game season and missing players for a week or two is part of the game, it's true that the Cardinals have a very tough start to their season, and after last year's debacle, they really need a strong start to the season to quiet the critics and get the club on the right track.

With that being said, how will the Cardinals roster look without those three names on the roster? Will some exciting young talent get a shot in their place? Here is how I predict things will shake out as things currently stand.

Catcher (2) - Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera

No changes when it comes to the catchers. This spring has been a continuation of an encouraging offseason for both catchers, and the tandeum has a chance to be one of the best in baseball this year. Both are looking to make improvements defensively, but their bats will be the way they both make a major impact on this club.

Just missed: Pedro Pages

Infield (6) - Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Brandon Crawford

The infield group is where we saw a shakeup last time, as the Cardinals brought in Brandon Crawford as veteran depth behind Masyn Winn.

There are a couple of things to note when it comes to the Crawford signing. Not only was it needed with Edman likely being out to begin the year, but the club has also indicated that they'd prefer Edman to focus on center field and not worry about playing any shortstop. Originally, they wanted him to be able to back up Winn there, but it seems like his slow recovery this offseason changed that plan.

Crawford's presence on the roster does block some other players from making the team when they are fully healthy. I expect him to be on the roster most of the year, but if someone like Victor Scott II forces his way into the everyday lineup, Edman could slide into a utility role and make Crawford expendable.

The Cardinals have a strong starting infield, with Arenado, Winn, and Goldschmidt joined by one of Gorman or Donovan at second base when at full strength. My guess is that Donovan or Gorman will DH when their full lineup is out there, but there's a chance they sit Donovan against left-handed pitching due to his struggles against southpaws.

While Crawford will have a defined role spelling Winn when he needs an off day, Carpenter is the clear 26th man on the roster, someone that the club can have on the bench almost every day, only getting a few at-bats every week. I do not see that role changing unless Carpenter is going through a hot streak at the plate.

Just missed: Jose Fermin, Thomas Saggese, and Luken Baker

Outfield (4) - Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, and Michael Siani

Here's where the major shakeups begin. The Cardinals have some tough decisions to make about their outfield to begin the season, and I think the fate of Victor Scott II may rest on a few factors.

First and foremost is his performance. If the club doesn't think he's ready for MLB action, they are not going to rush him to fill a need. They have Michael Siani on the 40-man roster already, so they do not feel pressure to force Scott onto their roster if he needs more seasoning.

Second, the timetable to return for both Nootbaar and Edman will likely play a large role. If both are expected to be back rather quickly, as it appears so right now, they probably won't have Scott on the roster, even if he's one of their best options. The Cardinals don't usually call up prospects like Scott to fill a need for just a few weeks, so unless he's going to remain on the roster and play almost everyday, it's hard to see them doing that.

The third thing that will impact Scott's ability to make the Opening Day roster is how Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, and Michael Siani finish camp. If the Cardinals feel fine about that trio and what they can provide to begin the year, they'll go in that direction. In the case of Siani, they likely would carry him as a reserve outfielder, so if they feel good about Carlson and Burleson both starting in most games, they won't want Scott riding the bench.

I would love for Scott to get a chance to begin the year with the Major League club. If he's dynamic and shows he belongs there, then that's a great problem to have. It would allow the club to be patient with Edman's return from injury, and once he's back, they don't have to rush him into everyday action. Edman can also fill an important role on the club by being the guy who slots in at any of the outfield or infield positions when needed, allowing everyone else to have consistent roles on the team.

I know that's not what Edman thought he'd be doing entering the year, but his lingering recovery is opening the door for youngsters to carve out a role, and I believe Scott should have that chance, as long as he finishes camp well.

Just missed: Victor Scott II

Rotation (5) - Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Steven Matz, and Zack Thompson

Sonny Gray's hamstring injury was never a major thing to begin with, but in recent days, it's seemed even better than what John Mozeliak initially shared with the media. Even so, I'll still operate under the scenario that Gray misses Opening Day, and instead, the Cardinals need to run with someone else in the rotation in his absence.

The winner of that competition in my mind would be Zack Thompson, who's looked solid in his five innings of work so far this spring. Out of the Cardinals' current depth options for the rotation, Thompson had the most success in the rotation last year, so that combined with his performance this spring should put him at the front of the line.

Matthew Liberatore has been solid as well, but he has struggled any time he's been in the Major League rotation. He still has the potential to be a starter in this league, but right now, I'd place my bets on Thompson getting the first crack at things.

Miles Mikolas would likely be the Opening Day starter, with the rest of the rotation mixing behind him in any order. This is a significantly weaker group without Gray at the top, but it's still an improvement over the rotation they had last year overall. Steven Matz and the tag team of Jake Woodford and Adam Wainwright were horrible to begin the year, so even guys producing ERAs in the low to mid 4.00 range would stabilize innings for them while they wait for Gray to be back.

Still, Gray's injury shows just how fragile this rotation is, and the Cardinals would be wise to pursue a second frontline starter, whether through trade or free agency, to pair with Gray as soon as possible.

Just missed: Matthew Liberatore and Drew Rom

Bullpen (8) - Ryan Helsley, Keynan Middleton, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero, Riley O'Brien, Andre Pallante, and Ryan Fernandez

The bullpen has been the one unit this spring that hasn't had any major blows (knock on wood) and produced a lot of optimism. The Cardinals made a bunch of moves to improve this group over the offseason, and it's showing.

First and foremost, Helsley is healthy and looks like himself. He was excellent in his return from injury in September last year and will provide the Cardinals with a top-5 closer in baseball. He's now joined by four different veteran relievers who can pitch in high-leverage spots, including the returning duo of Giovanny Gallegos and JoJo Romero, as well as newcomers Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge.

On top of that, the young guys have been catching eyes as well. Riley O'Brien has really stood out this spring, with his high velocity lightening up the radar gun and offspeed stuff giving fans dreams of another high-leverage arm in the making. Andre Pallante's offseason work appears to have paid off and he will look to fill multiple roles on the team as a reverse splits left-handed specialist, long-reliever, and ground ball inducer. Ryan Fernandez, the club's Rule 5 selection, has looked solid so far as well.

Last season, it felt like there was only one, two, or at most three relievers that the Cardinals could really trust in any given game. Going into 2024, I feel great about the eight-man group above, and there are even multiple arms that won't make the roster that I can't wait to see pitch in St. Louis at some point.

Nick Robertson came over in the Tyler O'Neill trade and will surely factor into the mix at some point with his intriguing stuff. I'm lower on John King than most, but he was effective for the Cardinals last year. Prospects like Gordon Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein, Andre Granillo, or even someone like Liberatore or Thompson could factor into the mix at any given time.

Just missed: Nick Robertson, John King, and Gordon Graceffo

Opening Day Lineups

Versus Right-Handed Pitching

2B Brendan Donovan
1B Paul Goldschmidt
DH Nolan Gorman
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
RF Jordan Walker
LF Alec Burleson
CF Dylan Carlson
SS Masyn Winn

Bench: C Ivan Herrera, INF Matt Carpenter, SS Brandon Crawford, OF Michael Siani

Versus Left-Handed Pitching

CF Dylan Carlson
1B Paul Goldschmidt
RF Jordan Walker
3B Nolan Arenado
DH Willson Contreras
2B Nolan Gorman
C Ivan Herrera
LF Alec Burleson
SS Masyn Winn

Bench: UTL Brendan Donovan, INF Matt Carpenter, SS Brandon Crawford, OF Michael Siani

While it's frustrating to potentially have Nootbaar and Edman out of the lineup to begin the year, the Cardinals have built up strong position player depth that should help them weather the storm for the short time period.

While the defense takes a hit for sure, the offense shouldn't miss much of a beat. Nootbaar is expected to hit at the top or in the heart of the order against right-handed pitching, but he's been mostly average against lefties. Edman's bread and butter is hitting off left-handed pitching and was going to bat 8th in their lineup against righties. Is the lineup weaker? Yes. But not enough to be concerned.

The Cardinals should still put up a lot of runs, and they'll need to. The way they've constructed this team, they need the lineup to be at least a top-10 unit in baseball, but to truly contend they probably need to be a top-5 lineup. They have the pieces in place to do that (and they were a top-8 unit in baseball before the trade deadline last year), but they'll have to prove it on the field for that promise to matter.

Overall, as long as Gray, Nootbaar, and Edman are just out for a short time, the Cardinals should be okay. If their injuries linger longer, specifically Gray and Nootbaar, that's cause for much bigger concerns.

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