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Cardinals News: Why the Miles Mikolas extension is a huge win for St. Louis
The Cardinals are winners today after extending Miles Mikolas on a two-year deal
The St. Louis Cardinals made a significant move to bolster their club beyond 2023 today, resigning 2022 All-Star Miles Mikolas to a two-year, $40 million extension to remain with the club through the 2025 season.
Before we get too deep into this, it's important to note how the contract breaks down, as Jesse Rodgers of ESPN noted that Mikolas' AAV in 2024 and 2025 will actually only be $16 million.
For those that like the breakdowns: Mikolas gets 5 mil in a signing bonus then 3 more added to his 2023 salary before two more years at $16 mil each.
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) March 24, 2023
Mikolas, 34, is coming off an excellent season for the Cardinals, where he eclipsed the 200-inning mark with a 3.29 ERA in those 33 games. The Cardinals faced question marks coming into 2023 with the future of their rotation, having just one player, Steven Matz, from their five-man group under contract after the 2023 season. Now the Cardinals have two of their five spots sorted out, which is a big win before the end of Spring Training.
Here are a few reasons I really like this deal for the Cardinals.
The deal itself is really team friendly
Sure, Mikolas has had a few down years since he's come to St. Louis, but outside of the 2019 season, any of those "off-years" have seemed to be related to injuries, which is just a part of investing in pitching. In two of the three years, Mikolas has pitched full seasons in St. Louis, he was an All-Star in both of them.
Getting an All-Star level pitcher locked up, even if he isn't an ace or even your preferred option as a number two starter, is a big win, especially when your rotation is a major question mark beyond this year.
The numbers on this deal are very favorable for St. Louis as well. As Rodgers noted, the Cardinals wisely used some of their extra budget this year to keep Mikolas' AAV down in future years, so they'll effectively have Mikolas at $16 million per year during this extension.
That is a huge bargain in the current marketplace of starting pitching. Sure, 10 years ago, this would have been a massive AAV, but today, that's below market value. Take Chris Bassitt and Jameson Taillon for examples. Bassitt is a pretty solid comp for Mikolas, as he his free agency at age 33, and received a three-year, $63 million deal from the Blue Jays. Taillon, who is far less accomplished than Mikolas, got a four-year, $68 million deal from the Cubs. All deals have to be taken into account with what the market is offering, and the Cardinals did really well here.
Beyond the initial numbers, there are some other reasons I like this deal as well.
The Mikolas deal provides stability while not getting rid of the Cardinals' flexibility when addressing the rotation
The Cardinals extended Mikolas and somehow did so without giving him a higher AAV than he was already at for this year. With Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery's deals coming off the books after this season, the club still has the ability to go and sign (or trade for) a top-end starter over the next calendar year.
With Mikolas and Matz locked in, the Cardinals now just have three rotation spots to fill. They will have about $42 million freed up from the three outgoing starters and Paul DeJong's contracts ending, plus a slew of in-house options to fill out the remaining spots.
The hope for this season is that St. Louis is able to identify a few arms internally who can at least take over the back end of the rotation spots. Jake Woodford will get his chance to audition for that early on in 2023 with Wainwright's injury, while names like Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, Tink Hence, Michael McGreevy, Connor Thomas, Zack Thompson, Andre Pallante, and even Cooper Hjerpe could all factor into those plans.
Between those nine names, I would be shocked if the Cardinals are not comfortable with at least two of those guys grabbing rotation spots next year. The perks of having young pitching in your rotation means they are cost-controlled, allowing you to go out and invest heavily into one or two arms at the top of the rotation.
Whether that's at the trade deadline this year or in the offseason, I am now even more confident that the Cardinals will be willing to acquire a true ace for this rotation, now that they know they have the flexibility to do so.
There's one more reason I really like this deal for St. Louis that is important to note.
The length of the Mikolas extension mitigates most of the risk
I would be very surprised if this deal ends up going poorly for the Cardinals, strictly upon the talent of Mikolas alone. I believe he'll be a really good pitcher for the next two seasons, even as he continues to age.
Should his talent dip or injuries happen though, this really isn't a big "risk" for St. Louis.
Again, comparing his deal to market value, the Cardinals got a bargain here, and whenever you sign a player, there is risk it won't work out. It is a part of doing business. If Mikolas falters though, that $16 million will hurt for sure, but it will not hurt as a $20 million to $30 million dollar AAV extension would have. Mikolas, had he hit the open market, probably could have received a little over $20 million, and gotten it at three or even four years.
St. Louis should feel really good about the value they got here, and fans should as well.
What do you think of the Mikolas extension? Let us know in the comments.
Next. 3 players who can replace Adam Wainwright for STL. dark