Cardinals' Miles Mikolas has flipped the script on his season

In his last 6 starts, Mikolas has lowered his season ERA from 6.19 to 4.85 What is different from the beginning of the year to now and from last year to this year?

Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals
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The success of the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation hinged mostly on Miles Mikolas's season. We knew what to expect out of Sonny Gray and Kyle Gibson. Lance Lynn would be a bit of a wild card at times, but by and large, he would strike out batters and give the team a chance to win after 6 innings.

After Mikolas's 2023 season, there wasn't much hope that he would be able to be a bulk starter with high upside like he showed in 2018 and 2022. The slogan during the offseason for many fans was a desire for at least two pitchers better than Mikolas and Steven Matz. Fans had largely given up on the mustachioed menace.

The start to 2024 didn't go well for Miles. He gave up 5 runs in just 4.1 innings as the Cardinals' Opening Day starter against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He had two terrible outings in April where he failed to make it out of the 5th inning. His ERA has not been below 5.00 all year. The hopes for Mikolas to turn things around and pitch well in the back of the rotation were fading.

However, he has flipped the script in his last 6 outings. Dating back to May 12th, Mikolas has thrown at least 5 innings and given up 3 or fewer runs in each start. Most of the starts in which he gave up 3 runs featured one bad inning whereas the rest were great. On May 12th against the Milwaukee Brewers, Mikolas gave up 3 runs in the first inning and then held serve until he was pulled. He had one inning where he gave up 2 runs against the Cubs on May 25th. His only blip against the Phillies on May 31st was a 2-run home run by Brandon Marsh. He gave up two solo shots against the Astros, and that was all the damage he experienced.

Mikolas has been superb for the Cardinals in his last 6 starts, and he's been a steadying force for a rotation that has seen some ups and downs this year in the last month. His most recent start against the Pittsburgh Pirates featured him going 7 innings while striking out 6 walking 1, and giving up just 1 hit. He outdueled the pitching prodigy Paul Skenes.

These aren't easy teams he's been going up against either. He's faced division rivals in the Brewers and the Cubs along with the best team in baseball in the Philadelphia Phillies. The Astros have been the best team in baseball in recent memory, and the Red Sox are no easy feat this year either.

What is different for the Lizard King?

Not much is truly different. His pitch mixes have varied from his worst starts to his best starts. Against the Mets on May 7th where he gave up 6 runs in 4 innings, Mikolas threw mostly 4-seamers with sinkers and sliders mixed in. He did the same against the Phillies on May 31st where he allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings.

On April 20th against the Brewers, he threw a lot of sliders with sinkers and 4-seamers mixed in. Mikolas allowed 5 runs in 4.2 innings that game. He did the same against the Pirates in his most recent start, and he was able to shut them out.

Mikolas is favoring his sinker more in June while he's used his curveball and changeup less often. His four-seam and slider usage has flip-flopped as well month to month. It's probably best that he increases his sinker usage to lean into his groundball tendencies. For his career, Mikolas has been a groundball pitcher. Last year was much different.

He had a groundball rate of just 39% in 2023; prior to that year, his lowest groundball rate was 45.9%. Hitters were able to loft the ball significantly more often, as evidenced by higher-than-average fly ball and line drive rates last year. This year, by using his sinker more often and his curveball less often, Mikolas has been able to keep the ball on the ground.

Below are two charts detailing this data for 2023 and 2024

Pitch (2023)

Usage

wOBA

GB%

Sinker

24.4%

.392

42.6%

Curveball

19.8%

.301

40.7%

Pitch (2024)

Usage

wOBA

GB%

Sinker

24.6%

.243

50.8%

Curveball

11.8%

.414

21.7%

Across the board, Mikolas's curveball has gotten worse and his sinker has gotten better. Therefore, he's relying on the latter pitch much more often. Additionally, Mikolas's sinker is finding the edge of the zone at a 48.9% clip. His curveball is on the edges just 35.9% of the time. Hitters are also chasing his sinker more than they are his curveball this year (33.7% vs 32%, respectively). These pitches have two different desired outcomes, but the edges of the zone are where hitters and pitchers live and die.

Miles has also worked on integrating his changeup more often, though that pitch has been hit pretty well this year (.321 batting average, .364 wOBA). The inclusion of a sweeper has boded well so far for the righty, as it has a 25% whiff rate paired with a 31.6% chase rate.

If Miles Mikolas can continue to use his sinker well and generate groundballs, the Cardinals may have a near-vintage starting pitcher on their hands. He's allowing home runs at an accelerated rate this year compared to previous years, but Mikolas has been able to himself out of trouble via groundballs while still striking out a respectable percentage of batters. Perhaps John Mozeliak was right in trusting the Lizard King with a consistent starting rotation spot this offseason, especially given his fiery comments to start the season.

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