Cardinals: Evaluating "WAR" and its reflection of team success

Wins Above Replacement is a fine comprehensive statistic to discover how much a particular player has done to help his team. According to Fangraphs, "Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players."

While WAR does provide a general context for player performance, it should not be used by itself. A player's counting stats, traditional stats, and sabermetric stats should all be used when evaluating player performance. WAR supplies the opportunity to compare players at a quick glance.

It is also possible to cumulate WAR totals for players on each team and determine the team WAR totals. Hopefully, the WAR totals of teams mirror the divisional standings. While Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs use similar statistics to come to their WAR totals, they take different routes. The defensive analysis is the primary distinction between the two websites. Fangraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating for their defensive statistics while Baseball Reference uses Defensive Runs Saved. UZR takes a long-term approach to defensive analysis. Therefore, bWAR will value defense more heavily than fWAR.

By using current divisional standings, it is possible to determine the accuracy of these WAR statistics. Each divisional page will start with a chart showing the current standings, standings based on fWAR (Fangraphs WAR), and standings based on bWAR (Baseball-Reference WAR). Analyses of the standings will subsequently be provided. All standings and statistics are accurate as of August 13th, the beginning of the day.

National League Central

Wouldn't Cardinals fans love to see the division look the way the WAR statistics have it? The Cardinals see a massive boost in the standings based on WAR totals due to their potent offense. The Cards are top 10 in offensive fWAR, but they are bottom 7 in pitching fWAR. bWAR also favors their offensive prowess in comparison to their pitching abilities.

The Cubs also see a major boost in both fWAR and bWAR. They are middle of the pack in both pitching and batting fWAR; however, their pitching and batting bWAR is top 6 in the National League. The Brewers' offense and pitching bWAR places them 12th in the National League, thus causing their fall in the standings using WAR statistics.

The team with the greatest variance between the three rankings is the Cincinnati Reds. They are currently on the outside looking in at the playoffs in the standings, but they would be in the playoffs using bWAR. According to fWAR, the Reds have been as bad as teams such as the Athletics, Nationals, and Rockies.

National League East

The NL East shakes up similarly across the board. The Mets' tumble throughout the summer has placed them squarely in contention with the Nationals for the worst record in the division. The Braves' overwhelming success has put them in sole control of the division across the board. The Phillies' recent surge has placed them comfortably near the top in all three metrics.

What could be interesting would be the Marlins' pursuit of the Phillies. While it seems as though the Phillies are going steady, the Marlins' power pitching and deadline acquisitions could push them up further in the division and in WAR statistics and in turn the divisional/Wild Card standings.

The Mets get a slight boost in fWAR, but they find themselves at the bottom in the other two rankings. Meanwhile, the Nationals are bringing up the rear in 2 of the 3 metrics. The Phillies are a top-5 team in both pitching and non-pitching bWAR. The NL East has two powerful teams in the Braves and Phillies, one contender in the Marlins, and two non-factors in the Mets and Nationals.

American League Central

Thankfully, the AL Central shakes out the exact same across the board. The Twins have a commanding advantage over the Guardians in all three categories, while the White Sox are falling quickly after the deadline. The Royals have been at the bottom of the division all year, and they consequently find themselves at the bottom in both fWAR and bWAR.

According to bWAR, the Twins are actually having a better season than the Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, and Mariners. fWAR places the Royals above only the Athletics, barely edging them out. According to bWAR, the Tigers, White Sox, and Royals are 3 of the 5 worst teams in all of MLB. The AL Central is far and away the weakest division by all available metrics.

The AL Central is an example of WAR being an effective statistic to use when evaluating team performance in relation to their standings. It is also a case study of the need to trade for strong players and sign free agents. Having only one team in the top half of the league in all metrics shows how weak the AL Central is.

American League East

The AL East has the most shakeup among the three metrics above. There are not many instances in which a team occupies the same place in the standings in multiple metrics. The Orioles see the most volatility in their standings, while the Yankees get a slight boost in fWAR due to a weak Red Sox pitching total.

The Orioles find themselves in first place currently in the division, but they are last according to fWAR and third according to bWAR. Their fWAR total is so low due to their bottom-10 pitching WAR total and their middle-of-the-pack offense. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays see a jump in fWAR standings due to a top-5 offense.

All AL East teams are in the top half of the league according to fWAR and records. This alone makes them the toughest division in the league. While the Yankees are ranked 21st in bWAR, the remaining 4 teams in the division are all in the top 10 in bWAR.

American League West

The Rangers and Astros are duking it out for the top of the division in all metrics. Meanwhile, the Mariners have found themselves in the top 10 in fWAR due to a strong second half of the season. The Angels have seen themselves fall across the board, as they have lost 8 of their last 10 games.

The Athletics would have a better team if they filled a roster in with all replacement-level players. A's pitchers have been worth -3.8 bWAR, while their batters are contributing a measly 3.0 bWAR. Only the Nationals and Rockies are worse than the Athletics according to fWAR.

The Rangers and Astros have been two of the most dominant teams in the entire league all year. Their WAR totals back up that notion as well. Both teams are in the top 6 in fWAR and top 4 in bWAR. The Angels and Mariners are in the top half of all baseball in bWAR totals, while only the Mariners join the Rangers and Astros in the top half according to fWAR.