Cardinals at Dodgers series preview: Everything you need to know for Opening Day

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As we edge closer to Thursday's Opening Day and the Cardinals' first series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, we have the probable pitching matchups. The "midwestern farmers" will take on LA's new superteam headlined by offseason acquisitions Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Cardinals fans are understandably nervous as the team tries to avoid a repeat of 2023. Starting strong is key for the Cardinals, and there's no tougher opponent to start off against.

There are many questions surrounding the Cardinals' Opening Day, and as the resident Dodgers expert, I'm here to break down the lineups, the rotation order, and the matchups. The Dealin' the Cards Podcast has also done a full preview of the opening series, which you can find here.

Game 1: Miles Mikolas vs Tyler Glasnow

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, the revamped rotation won't be fully ready for the start of the season as Sonny Gray will begin on the 15-day IL. After an offseason focus of "pitching, pitching, pitching," it looks like the Cardinals will be forced to repeat with Mikolas as the Opening Day starter while the Dodgers will show off their new-look pitching staff with Tyler Glasnow, a starter the Cardinals notably missed out on.

When healthy, Tyler Glasnow is among baseball's best, and it looks like he might finally be healthy and ready to go for 2024. After undergoing Tommy John surgery and addressing his other lingering injuries, Glasnow may be primed for his best and longest season yet. He was absolutely dominant this Spring, and while he struggled with his command in the Seoul Series, allowing four walks in five innings, Glasnow will be a formidable opponent for the Cardinals' lineup.

Between Mikolas and Glasnow, there may not be a more lopsided pitching matchup on Opening Day as Mikolas is coming off his worst season in St. Louis, in which he posted a 4.78 ERA marred by inconsistency and bad luck. He did have a solid Spring Training, but his Opening Day nod is a testament to the Cardinals' failure to acquire sufficient pitching depth this offseason.

Opening against the Dodgers, who have a notoriously left-handed heavy lineup, with a right-handed starting pitcher in Mikolas is also extremely risky. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and James Outman may prove too difficult for the veteran righty to handle, especially in his first start of the season.

Game 2: Zack Thompson vs Bobby Miller

Again, with an offseason that was supposed to be headlined by three starting pitching acquisitions, fans should be shocked that the Cardinals will start Zack Thompson in the second game of the season. Are the Cardinals really running out the same rotation again? And against the Dodgers? Credit to Thompson, however, as he's earned this starting role. He was the lone bright spot in the Cardinals' rotation in the second half of 2023, and his solid Spring earned him the spot considering Sonny Gray's injury.

While he won't eat as many innings as the rest of the rotation, Thompson's youth and high upside make him probably the most intriguing starter, minus Gray. He recorded a 2.81 ERA this Spring, and with more consistent playing time in the rotation, rather than bouncing back and forth between the bullpen, Thompson might have a chance to fully blossom into the starter St. Louis thought he'd be when they selected him in the first round of the 2019 Draft.

Conversely, the Dodgers will start a future star in Bobby Miller. Once a top pitching prospect in the Dodgers' system, Miller had a solid 2023 season, recording a 3.76 ERA in 22 games started. He's certainly not as scary as Glasnow, but Miller could break out further in 2024, cementing him as the next homegrown ace for LA, heir apparent to Clayton Kershaw. His ceiling is as high as it gets for pitching talent, and he could quickly shut down the Cardinals' lineup.

Both young starters will have a challenging task keeping the other team's lineup at bay during game 2, and we could see a slugfest if the veteran talent on both teams erupts after a quiet game 1.

Game 3: Lance Lynn vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Lance Lynn will start game 3 of the series against his former team as he hopes to rebound from a hopelessly dreadful 2023. By far the worst year of his career, Lance Lynn finished his LA career by allowing an MLB record four home runs in a single inning to the Arizona Diamondbacks as the Dodgers were unceremoniously swept out of the NLDS despite a 100-win season.

Lynn struggled immensely with the long ball in 2023, and his return to Dodger Stadium should not be a confidence booster for Cardinal fans. After finding himself at the wrong end of many home run highlight reels in 2023, Lynn could be immortalized in infamy once again should he groove a breaking pitch to Shohei Ohtani for the first home run of the two-way star's Dodger career. The Dodgers' heavy-hitting lefties will be waiting.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, however, did not give Dodgers fans any reasons for confidence in game 2 of the Seoul Series. I've already broken down Yamamoto's struggles in a separate article, but the Cardinals need to pile on while the young Japanese ace adjusts to Major League hitting for the first time in his career. If Yamamoto struggled with the pressure in Seoul, he might find it similarly nerve-racking to start in front of the Dodger faithful in LA.

I have no doubt Yamamoto will figure out MLB hitters soon and become one of the top pitchers in the entire league. He's just too talented a baseball player for the skills not to translate. However, the Cardinals have a golden opportunity to pounce on him early and secure a much-needed win on the road at Dodger Stadium. If Yamamoto's poor start in Korea was a minor hiccup, though, the Cardinals might be in big trouble against one of the most talented pitchers in the world.

Game 4: Steven Matz vs Gavin Stone

Personally, I think Steven Matz is the second-best pitcher in the Cardinals' rotation (only behind Sonny Gray) and a true x-factor in the success of this team. However, with his injury concerns and inability to eat innings, it's fair to have him as the fourth man in the starting rotation. Any order between Mikolas, Thompson, Lynn, Matz, and Gibson is truly defensible as all of their skills are roughly similar, and not one pitcher really has the edge over another.

After a terrible start to the 2023 season, Matz was relegated to the bullpen for some time before he found himself once again and pitched exceptionally well for the remainder of the season. However, as is often the case with Steven Matz, a season-ending injury prevented him from truly taking off. Moreover, Cardinal fans' judgment of Matz is definitely clouded by extremely bad luck. If we look at expected metrics instead of his actual performance, his FIP of 3.78 in 2022 and 3.75 in 2023 is extremely solid.

The Dodgers are also throwing a question mark in their fourth domestic game with Gavin Stone, as the young pitching prospect struggled in his first taste of MLB play last season. However, with injuries to Ohtani the pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, and more, LA is calling upon the young starter after a tremendous Spring. Though a small sample, Stone's 0.93 ERA in Spring Training was enough to earn the nod as the fourth starter in the Dodgers' rotation.

But, Stone won't have it easy in his first start of 2024. The Cardinals' lineup is formidable and could roll over an inexperienced pitcher. And against the Dodgers, the St. Louis hitters will have to perform as advertised. Let's take a look.

James Paxton, the Dodgers' fifth starter, and only left-hander in their Opening Day rotation won't be making an appearance, so we'll only have to worry about one projected lineup for St. Louis. Here it is:

Cardinals projected lineup (v. RHP)

Brendan Donovan (LF)
Paul Goldschmidt (1B)
Nolan Gorman (2B)
Nolan Arenado (3B)
Willson Contreras (C)
Alec Burleson (DH)
Jordan Walker (RF)
Masyn Winn (SS)
Victor Scott II (CF)

A few important names are missing from the Cardinals' lineup, such as Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman, who would significantly bolster the offensive firepower of this team, but overall, there are not many holes. 1 through 5 are all established and solid Major League hitters. Goldschmidt, Gorman, and Arenado, especially, all have 30+ home run potential. Willson Contreras is one of the best offensive catchers in all of baseball, and the bottom of the lineup in Burleson, Walker, Winn, and Scott all are young with major offensive upside.

Walker and Burleson will look to take significant steps forward in their sophomore seasons, and Masyn Winn will look to truly show his offensive potential for the first time. Victor Scott's callup was due to Dylan Carlson's untimely injury, but his productive Spring and electric tools will also tremendously help the team.

All of this is great, and the Cardinals should have a top lineup in the NL, but the Dodger lineup is one of the few that is better.

Dodgers projected lineup

Mookie Betts (SS)
Shohei Ohtani (DH)
Freddie Freeman (1B)
Will Smith (C)
Max Muncy (3B)
Teoscar Hernandez (LF)
James Outman (CF)
Jason Heyward v. R/Chris Taylor v. L (RF)
Gavin Lux (2B)

This lineup is going to be a problem for the middling Cardinals' starters in the opening series. The big three of Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman already wreaked havoc against Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove in Seoul, and the rest of the lineup doesn't get much easier. If Willson Contreras is one of the top offensive catchers in baseball, Will Smith might be the best. If the Cardinals' 2-4 hitters have 30 homer potential, the Dodgers' 1-6 has 30 homer potential. This lineup is terrifying.

At the end of this breakdown, we've concluded that the Dodgers are favored in every facet. But, sometimes, baseball happens. We still need to play the games, and the Cardinals could quickly come out on top. The Dodgers are scary. Like Shohei Ohtani, their pitching and hitting are among baseball's best. But as we've seen in the Postseason, it can often fall apart, and LA has fallen short of the grand prize more than anyone in baseball.

Maybe the Cardinals' pitching folds completely and drops all four games, or maybe the Dodgers crumble under the weight of expectations and allegations of illegal gambling. It all remains to be seen, and I can't wait to get started.

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