Cardinals: 4 things to keep an eye on as the club preps for the trade deadline

While the St. Louis Cardinals 2023 season has been about as disappointing]g as humanly possible, and the team continues to give us reasons to turn off the television, there are actually a lot of reasons to follow the club closely over their next month of baseball.

While I wish the club was not in this position and we were instead talking about ways for the Cardinals to put themselves in an even better position to compete in October, both fans and the front office will be looking at this club with very different expectations than we are accustomed to.

So what is there to even watch for with a team that has been so disappointing so far? Why wouldn't we just change the channel, turn off our notifications, and check back in with the team in January to see if they have made any moves?

Because July is the beginning of a potentially franchise-altering stretch of baseball for the Cardinals.

No, not in the sense that we may see a full-on rebuild begin at the deadline. Rather, this month may force the Cardinals to make some very difficult decisions that will either right the ship for 2024 and beyond or lead to a sour ending to the John Mozeliak era in St. Louis.

The Cardinals have not been in this kind of position in decades. The last time the club failed to win more than 70 games in a full 162-game season was in 1978. We just haven't seen this organization have to respond to this kind of adversity.

With that in mind, here are 4 things to keep an eye on with the Cardinals over this next month of baseball.

1. The club's overall performance...and the performance of division rivals

It goes without saying, but the Cardinals' record over their next month of baseball will play a major role in how they approach the trade deadline. Outside of two series with the Marlins and one with the Diamondbacks, the club plays a lot of struggling teams, including the Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, and Chicago Cubs.

St. Louis has the opportunity right in front of them to put together a solid month of baseball to show signs of life for this season. The problem is, they also now have to rely on other team's in their division letting them back into the race.

The Cardinals are currently 9.5 games back of the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, both of whom have been playing great baseball as of late. If they continue to do so the rest of the month, it may not even matter how well the Cardinals play.

Even so, a great month of baseball from the Cardinals will help the club see how its core can evolve for 2024. They need to identify which pieces they need to build around for next season, and who is expendable. Even if they get back into contention this month, I still expect the club to identify talent that they can let go of.

Speaking of...

2. The value of their impending free agents

Have you watched Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Hicks lately? Both are pitching like guys who could not only be difference makers for contenders down the stretch but also legitimately influence the pennate race depending on where they go. Translation: the market for them will be hot, and the Cardinals can take major advantage of that.

Over his last 7 starts, Montgomery is 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. We've seen Montgomery go toe to toe with Gerrit Cole and Framber Valdez in his last two starts, outdueling both like it was a critical playoff matchup. Every contender needs starting pitching help, and Montgomery is going to be one of the most valuable names available.

Hicks has been equally as good as Montgomery at the end of games for St. Louis, posting a 1.17 ERA and 5 saves over his last 7 games. His last 15 appearances have been stellar as well, sporting a 2.30 ERA with 22 SO in 15.2 innings of work. Again, teams are going to be calling the Cardinals frequently to get that kind of talent at the back end of their bullpen.

Even Jack Flaherty may end up holding some sneaky value at this deadline. The teams that miss out on the Jordan Montgomerys and other top options will look at Flaherty as a high-upside play. On his good days, he's really good, as he showed on Saturday against the Yankees. He gave up 0 runs over 6 innings of work, and outside of his last two starts where he blew up, he's been very good as of late for the Cardinals. In six starts between May 9th and June 7th, Flaherty gave up 3 runs or less every start.

The Cardinals have to capitalize on the value of their impending free agents with eyes on 2024. They'd love to grab some controllable big-league talent, but even prospect-rich packages would go a long way for St. Louis. If they want to truly retool this club between now and next Spring Training, they are going to need to stockpile assets so that they can be both creative and aggressive in the trade market. This brings me to my next point...

3. Potential trade partners in need of young bats with young pitching to dangle

I know, the idea of giving up on any of the Cardinals' young studs is difficult. But here's a public service announcement to anyone who's willing to listen.

You have to give up talent in order to acquire talent.

The Cardinals got extremely lucky not once, but twice over the last few years in getting both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado with weak trade packages. But expecting that to happen for this club once again is just ludicrous.

I expect the Cardinals to not only shop their impending free agents, but to look for ways to upgrade the rotation for 2024, even if it means dangling some of their young bats like Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Dylan Carlson, or Tommy Edman. I'm not saying I would be willing to trade each of these players specificially, but the Cardinals have to be willing to listen to what other teams may be willing to part with for those guys. Here's an example...

Local media in Seattle have already identified the Cardinals as a trade partner, and they themselves know it'll take some of their best young arms (Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, or even George Kibry) to get a deal done. If Seattle is willing to dangle those kinds of arms, the Cardinals must look to get creative and trade from a position of strength.

Perhaps some other organizations, like the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, or Miami Marlins may approach the Cardinals with similar desires. If the right arm is available, the Cardinals should pull the trigger. But if not, they can open those conversations up once again in the offseason.