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Cardinals: 3 Dylan Carlson trades with the Dodgers that make too much sense

By Josh Jacobs |
Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres / Rob Leiter/GettyImages
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These three Dylan Carlson trades would greatly improve the Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals still have moves to make this off-season, and the best route to improve the team this winter appears to be through the trade market. While they did not get a deal done with Oakland or Toronto for one of their catchers, one of the players discussed, Dylan Carlson, could be the center of a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Carlson was reportedly offered along with one of Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, or Alec Burleson for catcher Sean Murphy in trade negotiations, which shows a willingness on the part of the Cardinals to trade the young outfielder this off-season. I don't believe they are set on moving him, but they clearly are willing to part with him for the right price.

One of the teams that has expressed interested is the Dodgers, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal. I addressed why this report should be monitored closely, and the more you look at the fit, the more I like a few different potential deals that the Cardinals could make with the Dodgers.

The Cardinals have an abundance of outfielders, and if they are set on keeping Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar, that leaves just one spot left for the likes of Carlson, Yepez, Burleson, and Tyler O'Neill, who the club seems intent on giving the opportunity to rebound in 2023.

While the club can hold onto all of those guys and see who rises to the top in 2023, it makes a ton of sense to cash in on the value of a guy like Carlson if the right deal presents itself. Again, the Cardinals do not need to move him, and should be careful not to sell low on him, as the 24-year old still has a ton of potential.

If any one of these three trades that we'll discuss becomes available for St. Louis though, I think they should pull the trigger.

Trade #1 - Cardinals get an All-Star starting pitcher

The most obvious need the Cardinals have is for a front line starting pitcher, and that need could be filled in a swap with the Dodgers.

Tony Gonsolin is coming off a major breakout season with the Dodgers, going 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 130.1 innings and a respectable 8.2 K/9. In 272.2 career innings since 2019, he has an incredible 2.51 ERA. Gonsolin has just two years of service time, meaning the Cardinals would have four more years of club control, albeit it all arbitration years are Gonsolin is a super-two player.

Why exactly would the Dodgers be interested in trading away such a productive player? First, this would seem to be the ultimate "sell-high" kind of move, as even after an elite season like he just had, he didn't even place in the Cy Young voting this past season. Gonsolin is already 28-years old, so even with the team control, he isn't necessarily a young arm. There seem to be questions about whether or not Gonsolin is valued by the Dodgers as an impact arm in October as well.

Second, even with Walker Buehler likely missing all of the 2023 season, the club still has immense pitching depth with Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Grove, and top prospect Bobby Miller in the wings. Gonsolin could be expendable for the right price.

This is a pretty risky move for both clubs. If Carlson develops into the player many project him to be, he would become an extremely valuable center fielder who gets on base at a great clip, has good power, and plays elite defense. If Gonsolin is more than just a regular season pitcher, the Dodgers gave away a front-line starter.

This is a swap I could see both teams talking themselves into or talking themselves out of, making for a very interesting swap for the clubs. If Gonsolin isn't the pitcher the clubs want to swap, there's another arm that I think would be very intriguing for both sides.

Trade #2 - The Dustin May deal

As mentioned earlier, there are a lot of arms in the Dodgers system that could be of interest to St. Louis, including that of Dustin May.

As was the case with the Gonsolin trade, a Dustin May-Dylan Carlson trade would incur risk on both sides of the deal, as May has already battled a number of injuries in his career but has the stuff of a future ace. During the 2020 and 2021 seasons, May had a 2.62 ERA with 79 strikeouts in 79 innings before tearing his UCL. Upon his return in 2022, May struggled to stay on the mound after some other nagging injuries, but continued to show why he has ace like stuff.

For the Dodgers, trading away a young starter like May would be a tough pill to shallow, but Dylan Carlson carries a higher floor while maintaining a high ceiling as a player. At worst, Carlson is elite defender who can start start everyday in center field, and if his bat regains form or even develops to the point scouts though it could, he becomes a great outfielder for Los Angeles. The club still has other young arms like Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Gavin Stone to look forward too, so parting with this young arm wouldn't hurt as much as it would other organizations.

Because the Cardinals are incurring more risky in this trade, I have them acquiring left-handed reliver Caleb Ferguson as well. Ferguson is just 25-years old and coming off of a great 2022 season, where he had a 1.82 ERA in 34.2 innings pitched. This would strengthen the Cardinals bullpen even further and help them to compete with other contenders come playoff time.

I see the argument against trading for an arm with injury concerns like May, but as has been stated this off-season, the Cardinals have to find a way to get a front-line starter for their rotation. This is a unique scenario where the Cardinals could grab one without giving away more than one of their young assets. If May does not pan out, he is still likely a good middle of the rotation arm when healthy, and the Cardinals still have the capital to make another trade.

If pitching does not become the center of the negotiations, the third deal I could see St. Louis doing is in a similar vein to what the Atlanta Braves just did.

Trade #3 - Best catcher/DH tandem in baseball

If you look around the best teams in baseball, one of the growing trends is having multiple starting caliber catchers on your roster to keep their guys fresh throughout the grueling 162 game schedule. The Braves just traded for Sean Murphy despite having Travis d'Arnaud, and the Cardinals could mimic that thinking here.

The first question anyone would be why on earth would the Dodgers want to trade one o the best catchers in baseball? Adam Weinrib on Dodgers Way addressed the rumor of a Will Smith trade a few months ago, as the Dodgers could roll with Austin Barnes and top prospect Diego Cartaya if they capitalize on Smith's value.

In this scenario, the Dodgers get Carlson, a young bat for their DH and outfield in Juan Yepez, and a third quality catcher in Ivan Herrera to make up for Smith's absence. I could honestly see it needing to be Nolan Gorman instead of Juan Yepez, but tried to stay relatively close to the framework of the proposed Oakland trade.

In 2022, Smith slashed .260/.343/.465 with 24 HR and 87 RBI for the Dodgers, and is under team control through the 2025 season. He has an elite bat and plays good defense behind the plate, making him an excellent platoon pairing between DH and catcher for St. Louis.

Willson Contreras and Smith would both be able to rest frequently, so when they are catching, they are fresh and can still mash the baseball.

What did you think of these three trades? Would you do any of them? Do you have a different trade to propose? Comment your thoughts below!

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