Can the St. Louis Cardinals rely on Steven Matz in 2024?

The St. Louis Cardinals agreed to a four-year, $44 million contract with Steven Matz after the 2021 season. Halfway through that deal, many consider it a failure. That's because most fans believe Matz hasn't stayed healthy and hasn't given the Cardinals quality innings. I believe that narrative is unfair. Steven Matz is now underrated. Today, I'm going to push back against two conjunctive narratives: that Steven Matz is a bad pitcher, and that his contract is a bad deal

Is Steven Matz a good pitcher?

I think Steven Matz is a good pitcher. That question isn't hard to answer. I can throw statistics at it. Matz gave the Cardinals 105 quality innings in 2023. He recorded a 3.86 ERA and a 3.795 FIP. That's good for a 113 ERA+. He was 13% better than an average MLB pitcher last year. Moreover, he limited walks (2.7 BB/9) and generated a decent number of strikeouts (8.4 K/9). If the more advanced analytics aren't for you, I can use traditional statistics as well. Matz ended his season with four consecutive quality starts. He won four of his last five games.

It's pretty simple. Matz is a good pitcher. For some reason, many fans can't stand him! They don't believe he's a quality starting option. Many want to see him moved to a relief role. Others want to see him traded, and are actively looking for ways to remove him from the roster. Let's deconstruct some of the gripes fans harbor against Matz.

So why do so many fans dislike Steven Matz?

Steven Matz, though fairly effective on the mound, has suffered from two critical issues: sequencing and health. Matz's Cardinals tenure began poorly. After a minor injury held him out of action for the first week, he made his Cardinal debut on April 10th, 2022. Matz recorded just three innings and allowed seven runs. While his next two starts were significantly better, a two-inning, eight-run implosion on May 7th brought Matz's ERA to a whopping 7.01 after six starts.

Put simply, Matz made a terrible first impression. In his first month as a Cardinal, he sustained an injury, imploded twice, and recorded just one quality start. Matz made two relatively decent starts afterward but allowed a combined four home runs. It was now evident to many fans that their big off-season acquisition had a homer problem as well!

It was around this point that fans started demanding Matz be removed from the roster. Obviously, that's a ridiculous request. The Cardinals had just invested $44 million into Matz and had nearly four full years of control remaining. Moreover, he was a critical part of their plans for the 2022 season and beyond. Unfortunately, in on May 22nd, Matz went down with an elbow injury. He'd miss the next two months.

Matz's much-anticipated return came on July 23rd. Many fans, still soured by his rocky start to the season, believed he should be inserted into the bullpen, however, the Cardinals remained committed to utilizing him in the rotation. Matz responded with a great performance. He looked dominant, recording seven strikeouts and pitching into the sixth. Unfortunately, it was during the sixth inning when Matz took a comebacker off of his lower leg. The Cardinals announced that he'd suffered a serious injury and would miss at least six weeks. Matz again returned in September and pitched exclusively out of the bullpen.

In 2023, the narrative was much of the same. Matz started off slowly and was eventually moved to the bullpen. He looked better in a relief role, but injuries in the rotation forced the Cardinals to reinstate him as a starter. Matz took the opportunity and ran with it, pitching brilliantly over a seven-game stretch. In each of his final four appearances, he turned in a quality start. In this time, he also lowered his ERA to an impressive mark of 3.86. Unfortunately, just as he started to realize his potential, his season ended abruptly. Matz again suffered a major injury, his third in just two years with the Cardinals.

Deconstructing these narratives

Many fans believe Matz is a streaky pitcher who can't stay healthy. On the surface, it's hard to argue with them. But, both narratives have some holes. While Matz has suffered major injuries, they've been weird injuries. The lower leg injury he suffered during his return in July of 2022 was just terrible luck. Come backers happen, and sometimes they injure the guy standing on the mound. Unfortunately for Matz, he happened to be the guy standing on the mound. Had Matz not suffered such an unlucky injury, he may have finished 2022 on a high note, which could have vastly changed the way fans see him.

There's also something to be said about the nature of his injury in 2023. It was a relatively minor injury. Matz probably could have returned had the team deemed it necessary. He may have only missed several weeks of action. However, the Cardinals had no chance to make the postseason. The season was effectively over. It seemed unwise to hasten his return if there were no important games left to play. Thus, he missed more time than he normally would have.

Additionally, that injury was a lat strain. The lat is a muscle in the upper back, just below the shoulder. While those injuries aren't something to be overlooked, they also aren't too serious for pitchers. They're much less concerning than elbow or shoulder injuries. All indicators point toward Matz rehabbing fully and being healthy before spring training.

Matz has been streaky as a Cardinal. However, that's mostly due to a small sample size bias. In two years, unfortunate injuries have limited him to less than 160 innings. He's only made 27 starts with the team. To determine whether Matz is a streaky pitcher, we'll look at his previous experience. Excluding 2020, Matz recorded three straight seasons with at least 150 innings pitched, and in each of those campaigns, his ERA hovered around 4.00. In his best year, which came in 2021 in Toronto, Matz won 14 games with an ERA of 3.82 and a FIP of 3.79. Funnily enough, in his first two seasons in St. Louis, he has recorded FIPs of 3.78 and 3.75, respectively. Contrary to what many seem to believe, Matz has been a model of consistency. With a little bit of improved injury luck, he should enjoy a very productive next two seasons.