Can a team like the Cardinals get lucky and win the World Series?

I have heard it said that if a team can just get into the playoffs, they could get lucky and win it all. The Cardinals have been saying that for years now, but is it true?

Baseball-Reference has a stat for luck. They use Pythagorean Luck, which is the difference between the actual W-L and Pythagorean W-L. The Pythagorean Win-Loss is the Expected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. A zero means that the team isn’t lucky at all. If you have a score of zero or minus and you win the World Series, then it is not luck.

How have the last five World Series winners distinguished themselves in the luck department?

2023 - Texas Rangers - minus six (26th)
2022 - Houston Astros - zero (17th)
2021 - Atlanta Braves - minus six (27th)
2020 - LA Dodgers - zero (11th)
2019 - Washington Nationals - minus two (21st)

2024 - Cardinals - plus 7 (1st)

The Cardinals have been the luckiest team in the league this year. None of the World Series winners had luck on their side. Two of the last three winners were just about as unlucky as you can be. They overcame bad luck though and were winners, despite that.

Maybe you don’t like that stat. That’s OK. Let’s look at a few more. The run deferential is a statistic that stands out. World Series teams are good at out-scoring the other teams or keeping them from out-scoring them. 

2023 - Texas Rangers - 1.0 (4th)
2022 - Houston Astros - 1.4 (3rd)
2021 - Atlanta Braves - 0.8 (7th)
2020 - LA Dodgers - 2.3 (1st)
2019 - Washington Nationals - 0.9 (6th)

2024 - Cardinals - minus .4 (23rd)

SRS (Simple Rating System) is another statistic to look at. The number of runs per game they are better (or worse) than the average team. 

2023 - Texas Rangers - 0.9 (4th)
2022 - Houston Astros - 1.3 (3rd)
2021 - Atlanta Braves - 0.7 (7th)
2020 - LA Dodgers - 2.2 (1st)
2019 - Washington Nationals - 1.0 (4th)

2024 - Cardinals - minus 0.4 (23rd)

One of the common themes when discussing World Series teams is the starting pitching. We can look at several categories, but just to make it simple, let’s look at WAR. 

2023 - Texas Rangers - 7th
2022 - Houston Astros - 1st
2021 - Atlanta Braves - 13th
2020 - LA Dodgers - 8th
2019 - Washington Nationals - 1st. 

2024 - Cardinals - 17th

The average over the last five years is a WAR of 6. While the Cardinals have a good bullpen, if the starters can’t match the other team’s starters, then that is problematic. 

All-Stars - while having a team of all-stars doesn’t mean a World Series winner. It certainly helps to rely on a few players who are the best at their positions.  

2023 - Texas Rangers - 6
2022 - Houston Astros - 5
2021 - Atlanta Braves - 3
2020 - LA Dodgers - NOT PLAYED (COVID)
2019 - Washington Nationals - 7
2024 - Cardinals -  1

Mostly, you need to have more top-tier players in your lineup. If you don’t, then you have to have the sum become greater than the individual parts. As a team, the Cardinals rank in the middle of almost every offensive, defensive, and pitching category. 

What kind of manager led each team? 

2023 - Texas Rangers - Bruce Bochy - Age 69
2022 - Houston Astros - Dusty Baker - Age 75
2021 - Atlanta Braves -Brian Snitker -Age 68
2020 - LA Dodgers - Dave Roberts - Age 52
2019 - Washington Nationals - Dave Martinez - Age 59

2024 - Cardinals - Oliver Marmol - Age 38

Does age matter? No, but what matters more is the years of experience each manager has. The years that the managers played in the major leagues and the management experience each brings are invaluable to the team in game seven of the World Series. 

When I hear someone say ‘If the Cardinals can just get to the playoffs, anything can happen’, I have to look at the data. I know that some are going to point to the Arizona Diamondbacks last year. They weren’t supposed to make the playoffs, let alone get into the World Series. And that is correct. However, they did not win the World Series. 

If your team can’t out-score the other teams, the pitching isn’t elite; you have fewer All-Star players to rely on, and the team has the least experienced manager in the league, you might want to look to luck. History, however, tells us that relying on luck is not a winnable strategy.