Buying or selling the biggest storylines from the Cardinals' series loss to Dodgers

We are now four games into the St. Louis Cardinals 2024 campaign, approximately 2% of the 162 games they will play over the course of the season, but if you scroll through social media, it would make you think they've played half the season already.

The Cardinals got off to a 1-3 start against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers, who looked like the far superior team in this series. After pretty convincing losses in the first two games of the series, the Cardinals bounced back for a win in the third game, just to blow a 4-0 lead in the late innings of the series finale.

Storylines and takes are flying all over the place relating to this Cardinals team, so I want to take a moment to tell you which ones I'm buying and which ones I'm selling in this very small sample size.

Buy: It's far too early to know if the Cardinals are back to being contenders or destined to fail again

Hey, did I mention enough times in the introduction that the Cardinals have only completed four games this season, all four of which came against a team that may go down as one of the best we have ever seen in the Dodgers, any came close to splitting the series?

Even if the Cardinals had held onto the final game of the series and left Los Angeles with a 2-2 record, I'd still be pumping the breaks on any massive conclusions about this team. In fact, I wouldn't have cared if the Cardinals won the series or even swept the Dodgers, it wouldn't mean we know who this team is already (although, it sure would have been fun to see!).

Instead, it's time to take a breather, regroup, and see what the club is able to do against the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins this week. I'd love to see what this lineup does against pitching staff that are still talented, but not anywhere near the level of the Dodgers, and I really want to see what the Cardinals' own pitching staff does when facing lineups that don't feature three straight MVPs hitting at the very top of it.

The Cardinals cannot afford to start the season like they did last year, but we are still a few weeks away from that becoming a reality. For now, they need to focus on turning things around against San Diego and Miami.

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Sell: The rotation is just as bad (if not worse) than last year

If you opened X (formerly known as Twitter) after Friday's loss, you would have seen waves of tweets from accounts saying the Cardinals rotation is awful, probably even worse than last year's group, and this team is destined to be one of the worst in baseball again.

Anyways....

Miles Mikolas looked bad on Thursday, and he's the guy I have had the biggest concerns about heading into the season. Zack Thompson gave up five runs in his first start, but most of the damage came from two mistakes he made during the game to Teoscar Hernandez. Not a good start, but considering he's just filling in for two weeks while Sonny Gray is working his way back (and that it was the Dodgers' lineup), I'm not terribly concerned.

Lance Lynn looked great in his first outing on Saturday, although a rain delay cut his day short to just four innings. Steven Matz managed 5.1 innings of one-run ball and looked like the five or six-and-dive guy that the Cardinals think he could be this year.

No one is trying to argue that this rotation is to be feared, but come on, it's already showing the signs of why it's a step up from last year's group. Let me remind you of just how bad the starters were in 2023...

Adam Wainwright - 7.40 ERA in 21 starts (4.2 IP per start)

Matthew Liberatore - 5.88 ERA in 11 starts (4.1 IP per start)

Dakota Hudson - 5.26 ERA in 12 starts (5.1 IP per start)

Jake Woodford - 6.95 ERA in 8 starts (4 IP per start)

Drew Rom - 8.02 ERA in 8 starts (4 IP per start)

That's sixty starts from five different starters whose ERAs ranged from 5.26 to 8.02...with three of those guys carrying 6.95 ERAs or higher! And five of them averaged under five innings per start!

I'm not even including Steven Matz's rough start to the 2023 season (in which he finished the season with 7 great starts) or Miles Mikolas' rough year (but he at least carried his 4.78 ERA over a much higher innings output, which is more valuable). Either way, if you think this group is already as bad as that one, then I don't think you truly understand how bad that team was and how significant of an upgrade Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Sonny Gray are.

No, Gibson and Lynn are not flashy upgrades, but when you're expecting to have ERAs somewhere in the 4.20-4.50 range and eat a lot of innings, that is a substantial upgrade over guys who get you less than five innings with ERAs north of 6.00.

The rotation may end up just being bad again, but to already cast them off as the exact same group as last year is a big leap to me, especially when, once again, they were facing the Dodgers, and even so, two of the four guys had good outings against them.

Buy: It's fair to be concerned about Nolan Arenado's rough start, but it's far too early to say he's not the same guy anymore

Nolan Arenado is 1-16 to begin the 2024 season, mustering up just a pulled single to shallow left field as his lone hit over the course of this four-game series. He's consistently taking bad swings at the plate and looks lost offensively. Is it time to panic about Arenado's performance?

No, it's not panic time, but the warning signs are certainly there. Arenado got off to an ice-cold start in 2023 as well, posting a 63 wRC+ during March and April. The star third baseman rebounded through the All-Star Break though, posting a wRC+ of 138, 157, and 142 in May, June, and July, earning himself an All-Star nod in the process.

After that though, things unraveled again for Arenado, posting a 91 wRC+ in August and 40 wRC+ in September, posting a second-half wRC+ of 79, and ending the season on the injured list due to his nagging back injury.

In short, we saw sustained runs of success from Arenado at the plate in 2023, and we saw some sustained runs of struggles as well. Getting off to a 1-16 start isn't going to calm anyone's concerns, but again, it feels like an overreaction to say he's "cooked" or "washed" or "not the same guy anymore" like social media wants you to believe.

Sure, this could be the beginning of a downhill slope for Arenado, but he's also been a streaky hitter throughout his career, often looking just as lost at the plate as he does right now in past seasons for stretches, just to go off at the plate following that.

Keep a close eye on Arenado's performances, but try not to overreact just yet.

Buy: Victor Scott II is awesome to watch and already extremely impacful

Cardinals fans got their wish this weekend as Victor Scott II made the Opening Day roster and started all four games for the Cardinals in center field. It wasn't a world-breaking debut series for Scott, but he was fun to watch and is already proving he can be an impactful player for this club.

Scott got on base three times during the series, once on an error from Mookie Betts that I would have ruled an infield single, an actual infield single, and a sweet double to left center during the series finale. Scott looked his best at the plate in the fourth game, which is a good sign in terms of momentum.

When Scott was on base, he was clearly impacting the game. He got on base three times (four if you include being the extra innings runner during the 10th inning of game three), and scored three times. Scoring 75% of the time you get on base, especially as the 8th hitter, is a great sign for this team.

His defense in center field was noteworthy as well. He made multiple nice plays out there this weekend and was making some other plays look routine that most center fielders don't get to easily (if at all). For a club whose defense was a major negative in 2023, having Scott out in center field to stabilize that group means a lot.

I can't wait to see how Scott performs this upcoming week in San Diego and in opening home stand.

Buy: The bullpen overhaul is the Cardinals' biggest X-Factor this season

The bullpen had an up-and-down weekend, and it feels pretty clear to me that this group will be the biggest X-Factor for the club this year.

The bullpen had a few different things working against it this weekend (and I'll get into those), but ultimately, it needs to perform better in big spots than it did if it's going to hit its potential.

The bullpen covered 15 innings this series, an average of about 4 innings per game. The Cardinals' plan this offseason was for their rotation to eat innings, and when it wasn't doing that, it ended up creating issues for the bullpen if they were not executing at a high level.

Ryan Helsey looked like the Helsley from April in 2023, which is not ideal. His velocity is down and he was getting battered by the Dodgers' MV3, but Helsley looked like his 2022 self the rest of 2023 when healthy, so I'm not going to overreact to one bad outing from Helsley.

Had the Cardinals been able to shut the door quicker in the third game instead of going to extra innings, their bullpen likely would have been less taxed going into the final game of the series when they only had four arms available. Also, refusing to use Ryan Fernandez in this series was an odd decision, especially when there were two games they were clearly losing where he could have eaten some innings.

The bullpen showed flashes for sure, but the combination of the rotation not giving innings, injuries to different arms, and guys not being available (specifically in the fourth game) were issues.

If the Cardinals can get those innings going into these next few series, I think the bullpen will perform a lot better in the near future.