Breaking down the St. Louis Cardinals' arbitration projections

MLB Trade Rumors publishes projections for arbitration-eligible players and their contracts. Currently, the Cardinals have 9 players who are eligible for a new salary through arbitration. There are various things that are considered during the arbitration process; playing time, statistics, position, and role on the team are all mulled over during the process. Inflation is also a factor, though it is a relatively small factor in the calculations.

In years past, the St. Louis front office has tried to avoid a hearing with the players, but they have simultaneously been staunch in their figures presented to the players. While it is always possible that a player could be extended during the process or traded, the Cardinals have typically signed deals with their players before the discussions reach an arbiter.

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat shared MLB Trade Rumors' figures the other day. While these are just projections, they give us a good starting point for analysis.

Excluding Jacob Barnes, who will be non-tendered according to Jones, the total of those figures is $24.5 million. Tyler O'Neill and Tommy Edman account for about half of that total. JoJo Romero and Jake Woodford, however, account for the least amount. O'Neill is in the final year of arbitration, while the remaining 7 players who will receive extensions have at least one more year in arbitration after 2024. Ryan Helsley and Dakota Hudson also present interesting cases.

Typically, the teams and players present a dollar figure for the upcoming season, and they argue their points respectively. An arbiter is brought in to determine the actual value of the pending contract. While this process does give a voice to players, the contract that is dolled out falls below market value for that player most often. The process can also harm relationships between players, owners, and general managers.

Let's take a look at 4 players and their arbitration projections for the 2024 season.

Tyler O'Neill

After Tyler O'Neill's MVP-candidate season in 2021, he received a massive pay increase. He went from just over $500,000 in 2020 to nearly $3.5 million in 2021. Since then, he has seen only incremental increases as his production has plateaued and even decreased slightly. This year, Tyler was on the books for just under $5 million.

MLB Trade Rumors projects his 2024 contract to be worth right around $5.5 million, a 10% increase from 2023. While his production has declined since his 2021 season, it is still understandable that he sees a pay increase year over year. Arbiters and statisticians still have his strong 2021 season in the statbook, and with experience comes more money. Service time is one of the strongest factors in the arbitration equation.

To get an idea of a range of outcomes for O'Neill, we must look at comparable players of the past. Jorge Soler is an outfielder who recently exited the arbitration process. His final year of arbitration was in 2021, two years after he led the league in homers and played in all 162 games. His career slash line up to that point was .252/.335/.475 for an OPS+ of 115. He hit 92 home runs up to that point in 1,740 plate appearances, but he was a negative defender at all outfield positions. Soler received a contract worth $8.05 in his final year of arbitration.

O'Neill, contrarily, has a slash line of .248/.319/.435 for an OPS+ of 111 for his career. He has hit 78 home runs across 1,636 plate appearances, and he has been a plus defender in the corner outfield spots. He also showed an ability to play center during the World Baseball Classic. While it appears on the surface that $5.5 million is an overpay for an oft-injured player, it is a bit of a bargain when compared to similar players of the past.

Tommy Edman

Tommy Edman's arbitration case is challenging to decipher. While he has been primarily a shortstop, he has also logged ample innings at second base and center field. Therefore, the positional aspect of his arbitration case gets a bit murkier. His career offensive stats, a .265/.319/.408 slash line, has been exactly league average over his 5 seasons in the majors.

Edman has won a Gold Glove before, and he has been fairly consistent in his 2,425 plate appearances. MLB Trade Rumors predicts his arbitration case to land right around $6.5 million. This would be the highest figure for the Cardinals this year, and it would be a decent increase from the $4.2 million that he agreed to last year. The question remains: is this a good value?

Most of Edman's dollar figure will be bolstered by his defensive prowess and versatility. He is a decent offensive player, but his main value comes in his ability to play multiple positions well. As a shortstop for his career, Edman has accumulated 16 Outs Above Average, 5 OAA in right field, 10 OAA at third base, 20 OAA at second base, and 6 OAA in center. Those numbers are very strong, and he has played at two premier defensive spots in shortstop and center field.

The closest player who had an arbitration case with around 4 years of service time and who has a similar offensive profile to Edman would be Jurickson Profar after the 2019 season. Up to that point in his career, Profar had a slash line of .234/.315/.394 for an OPS+ of 89. However, Profar's defense didn't hold a candle to Edman's. They played similar positions, but Profar had a -22 OAA total across five positions. That year, Profar and the Athletics agreed to a dollar figure of $3.6 million. Given Edman's slightly better offense and 3 years of inflation, Edman's figure makes sense when compared to Jurickson Profar's figure from 2020.

A strong defensive comp to Edman would be Chris Taylor. Taylor had around 4 years of service time after the 2020 season. He played for the Dodgers at that point and was a Swiss Army Knife of a player. He had logged innings at third base, shortstop, second base, center field, left field, and right field. He had racked up 12 Outs Above Average, so his defensive value is closer to Edman's. Taylor's offensive profile was better than Edman's, however. Across 218 plate appearances, Chris Taylor had a slash line of .263/.33/.444 for an OPS+ of 109. Taylor's better offense balances out his weaker defense when compared to Edman.

Chris Taylor agreed to a $3.5 million arbitration total after the 2019 season. He then had his arbitration bought out in 2020 and 2021 for a contract with an AAV of $7.7 million. Edman's $6.5 million projection seems reasonable given his performance when compared with similar players.

Dakota Hudson

Pitchers can be tough to quantify, as they typically switch from starting to relieving early in their careers, and they can even be sent down to the minors more frequently due to underperformance. Dakota Hudson has had a rollercoaster of a career thus far. He has started in 79 of his 114 games in the majors, and he has accumulated 470.2 innings in that time. He has just over 4 years of service time.

Dakota Hudson has a 3.84 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, a 4.63 FIP, and a 107 ERA+. Hudson experienced reasonable success in his first four seasons (2018-2021), but he has since fallen to a below-average pitcher. Hudson's peak was in 2019 when he ended up being 5th in Rookie of the Year voting. He has never been known as a strikeout pitcher, and his numbers back that up.

Chris Bassitt of 2021 is probably the closest case we have to Dakota Hudson up to this point in his career. After the 2020 season, Bassit had a 3.59 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.275 WHIP, and 115 ERA+ in just under 400 innings. He had accrued just over 4 years of service time up to that point as well. Bassitt was a better pitcher than Hudson by then, and he was rewarded with a $4.9 million arbitration deal from the Oakland Athletics. Hudson's projection of $3.7 million is noticeably less than Bassitt's, and that seems reasonable given the gap in performance between the two.