Breaking down the St. Louis Cardinals' arbitration projections

MLB Trade Rumors publishes projections for arbitration-eligible players and their contracts. Currently, the Cardinals have 9 players who are eligible for a new salary through arbitration. There are various things that are considered during the arbitration process; playing time, statistics, position, and role on the team are all mulled over during the process. Inflation is also a factor, though it is a relatively small factor in the calculations.

In years past, the St. Louis front office has tried to avoid a hearing with the players, but they have simultaneously been staunch in their figures presented to the players. While it is always possible that a player could be extended during the process or traded, the Cardinals have typically signed deals with their players before the discussions reach an arbiter.

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat shared MLB Trade Rumors' figures the other day. While these are just projections, they give us a good starting point for analysis.

Excluding Jacob Barnes, who will be non-tendered according to Jones, the total of those figures is $24.5 million. Tyler O'Neill and Tommy Edman account for about half of that total. JoJo Romero and Jake Woodford, however, account for the least amount. O'Neill is in the final year of arbitration, while the remaining 7 players who will receive extensions have at least one more year in arbitration after 2024. Ryan Helsley and Dakota Hudson also present interesting cases.

Typically, the teams and players present a dollar figure for the upcoming season, and they argue their points respectively. An arbiter is brought in to determine the actual value of the pending contract. While this process does give a voice to players, the contract that is dolled out falls below market value for that player most often. The process can also harm relationships between players, owners, and general managers.

Let's take a look at 4 players and their arbitration projections for the 2024 season.

Tyler O'Neill

After Tyler O'Neill's MVP-candidate season in 2021, he received a massive pay increase. He went from just over $500,000 in 2020 to nearly $3.5 million in 2021. Since then, he has seen only incremental increases as his production has plateaued and even decreased slightly. This year, Tyler was on the books for just under $5 million.

MLB Trade Rumors projects his 2024 contract to be worth right around $5.5 million, a 10% increase from 2023. While his production has declined since his 2021 season, it is still understandable that he sees a pay increase year over year. Arbiters and statisticians still have his strong 2021 season in the statbook, and with experience comes more money. Service time is one of the strongest factors in the arbitration equation.

To get an idea of a range of outcomes for O'Neill, we must look at comparable players of the past. Jorge Soler is an outfielder who recently exited the arbitration process. His final year of arbitration was in 2021, two years after he led the league in homers and played in all 162 games. His career slash line up to that point was .252/.335/.475 for an OPS+ of 115. He hit 92 home runs up to that point in 1,740 plate appearances, but he was a negative defender at all outfield positions. Soler received a contract worth $8.05 in his final year of arbitration.

O'Neill, contrarily, has a slash line of .248/.319/.435 for an OPS+ of 111 for his career. He has hit 78 home runs across 1,636 plate appearances, and he has been a plus defender in the corner outfield spots. He also showed an ability to play center during the World Baseball Classic. While it appears on the surface that $5.5 million is an overpay for an oft-injured player, it is a bit of a bargain when compared to similar players of the past.

Dakota Hudson

Pitchers can be tough to quantify, as they typically switch from starting to relieving early in their careers, and they can even be sent down to the minors more frequently due to underperformance. Dakota Hudson has had a rollercoaster of a career thus far. He has started in 79 of his 114 games in the majors, and he has accumulated 470.2 innings in that time. He has just over 4 years of service time.

Dakota Hudson has a 3.84 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, a 4.63 FIP, and a 107 ERA+. Hudson experienced reasonable success in his first four seasons (2018-2021), but he has since fallen to a below-average pitcher. Hudson's peak was in 2019 when he ended up being 5th in Rookie of the Year voting. He has never been known as a strikeout pitcher, and his numbers back that up.

Chris Bassitt of 2021 is probably the closest case we have to Dakota Hudson up to this point in his career. After the 2020 season, Bassit had a 3.59 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.275 WHIP, and 115 ERA+ in just under 400 innings. He had accrued just over 4 years of service time up to that point as well. Bassitt was a better pitcher than Hudson by then, and he was rewarded with a $4.9 million arbitration deal from the Oakland Athletics. Hudson's projection of $3.7 million is noticeably less than Bassitt's, and that seems reasonable given the gap in performance between the two.

Ryan Helsley

The final big-name player on the arbitration list for the Cardinals is Ryan Helsley. His projection is a bit easier than Hudson's as Helsley has been solely a reliever for the Cardinals since his promotion to the majors. Helsley has garnered just over 4 years of service time, and he has two years of arbitration left after this year.

In his 197.1 innings across 174 games, Helsley has a 2.83 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, and has struck out 235 batters. He has been a very solid reliever and closer these last two years. Injuries have been a bit of an issue for Helsley, and that will harm his arbitration case slightly. He is projected to sign for $3 million this offseason through the arbitration process.

Devin Williams is a similar enough reliever based on the statistics, and he is at the same point in the arbitration process as Ryan Helsley. Williams will have just over 4 years of service time during this offseason. Williams, a St. Louis native, has pitched 214 innings to the tune of a 1.89 ERA, a 1.028 WHIP, and 337 strikeouts. Williams is a more dominant reliever, and he is projected to receive $6.5 million this year through arbitration. Helsley's salary is half of Williams's, and if anything, that makes it seem like Helsley's projection is a little low.

Paul Sewald after the 2021 season is another reasonable comparison. Sewald was at a similar service time at that point in his career, and his numbers are close to Helsley's. Through 212 innings, Sewald had a 4.75 ERA, a 3.75 FIP, a 1.259 WHIP, and had struck out 255 batters. Helsley has been better at limiting runs, but the remaining stats are close. Sewald agreed to a contract worth $1.75 million after the 2021 season. Helsley is projected to sign for nearly double what Sewald got at that point. Performance and inflation would indicate that Helsely would get paid more than Sewald did that offseason.