Breaking down Brendan Donovan's future with the St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals found a diamond in the rough in Brendan Donovan.

The 26-year-old utilityman just followed up a breakout rookie campaign with an excellent sophomore season, continuing to swing one of the best bats the Cardinals have while providing tremendous value plugging into almost every position defensively.

Since his debut in 2022, Donovan ranks 39th in all of baseball with a 124 wRC+, tied with Kyle Schwarber and ahead of guys like Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., Lars Nootbaar, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Adolis Garcia, Bryan Reynolds, Ozzie Albies, and the list goes on and on. His most elite tool as a hitter is his on-base ability, ranking 12th in MLB during that stretch with a .381 OBP.

I love myself some Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman, but statistically, it's hard to argue against Donovan being the best of the bunch at the plate thus far in their careers. Do those three have higher ceilings than Donovan? Probably. But Donovan has already shown the heights he can reach as a hitter, especially this past summer.

After getting off to a slow start at the plate in 2023, Donovan looked like one of the top-20 hitters in all of baseball from May 21st until being shut down with his elbow injury on July 29th, ranking tied for 17th in baseball with a 145 wRC+ on the back of a .316/.395/.489 slash line during that stretch. Even more impressively, he was nursing his elbow injury for the majority of that stretch, but his bat was so good that the Cardinals could confidently DH him every day.

If the individual numbers are not enough to show you just how valuable Donovan is, just look at the team's offensive rankings before and after Donovan was done for the season. Yes, there were other injuries and weird situations that impacted this as well, but it's clear the Cardinals' offense is a much better unit with Donovan in the lineup.

Nolan Arenado's back injury, Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar missing time, and plate appearances being increasingly given to guys who will not be on the Major League roster in 2024 contributed to this steep offensively decline, but it's obvious that losing a bat as impactful as Donovan's played a major role in this as well.

This offseason, the Cardinals are going to be looking to upgrade their pitching staff in a significant way, leading some to believe that Brendan Donovan could be a part of that equation through a trade. If anything, these numbers should give the Cardinals a ton of pause when it comes to the idea of letting someone like Donovan go this offseason, even in a trade for pitching that they desperately need.

I want to take a look at three different paths the Cardinals could have for Donovan in 2024 - locked into the outfield every day for them, being the super-utility man and DH, or becoming a trade asset in their pursuit of starting pitching. Each scenario has major implications for this Cardinals club both now and in the future, and I have my suspicions on what path they will choose for Donovan.

Path #1 - Brendan Donovan as a primary outfielder in 2024

For as long as Brendan Donovan is as good as he is at filling in around the diamond for the Cardinals, they'll surely rotate him around the field as needed. But there is a strong argument for Donovan to settle in more in the outfield in 2024.

In 2022 and 2023, Donovan logged time at six different defensive positions, with second base and left field being the most prominent of them all. Based on how the roster is shaking out for the 2024 season though, it feels like he will see more and more time in the outfield and DH than he has in the past.

Nolan Gorman is an elite bat at second base and it's now his primary position. He will likely play there every day, with a few appearances filling in at third when Arenado has a day off or DH when he needs a breather himself. Donovan can still get time there, but unless Tommy Edman is dealt this offseason, that is a place he'll look to get games in as well.

Donovan has filled in at first base in 30 games for the Cardinals the last two years, and while he could still see time there as well, Alec Burleson is a candidate to get more opportunities. Shortstop is interesting to me because if Edman remains on the roster, I don't see Donovan finding time there, but if they do trade Edman for pitching, I could see Donovan being the backup shortstop to Winn.

With how the roster is structured right now, the infield is set, and two of the three outfield positions are set. It's really just the DH role and one of the outfield spots that need to be filled, and since Donovan is too good not to play every day, he could easily take one of those spots.

If the Cardinals want to maximize their offensive potential, having Donovan as the primary left fielder with Lars Nootbaar in center field and Jordan Walker in right field would be an excellent way to do that. While Donovan is just an average defensive outfielder, playing the position every day may help him improve more out there, and offensively, Donovan would have been the 30th ranked outfielder in baseball in wRC+ in 2023, and based on the way he was hitting during the summer, likely would have climbed those rankings even more so.

Donovan in left field allows the Cardinals to have someone like Alec Burleson get DH appearances more often, or even an up-and-coming prospect like Thomas Saggese. The weakest link in the lineup by far would then be Masyn Winn, and that is a strong lineup.

With the presence of Edman and possibly Saggese on the roster next year, I don't think there is as much of a need for Donovan to bounce around the diamond, especially if Edman does not have a defined everyday role. Should Edman be the primary center fielder though, or be off the roster entirely, I think the case for Donovan to be an "everyday utilityman" grows stronger, which we'll look at next.

Path #3 - Use Brendan Donovan to acquire a starting pitcher on the trade market

Most of us strongly anticipate the Cardinals acquiring a starting pitcher via trade this offseason. In Katie Woo's latest piece over at The Athletic (subscription required), she seemed to believe that Donovan was not going to be a piece they looked to move this offseason, but rather would be more open to trading Edman or Gorman, and would be most interested in moving Carlson, Burleson, O'Neill, Yepez, or Baker to acquire said pitching.

Frankly, unless the free agent market goes wild and only signing one guy is the wisest route for St. Louis, I just do not like the idea of them parting with any of Nootbaar, Donovan, or Gorman to bring in the pitching help they need. I would much rather have them dip into their farm system in a painful way, or use the value of a guy like Edman, Burleson, Carlson, or O'Neill to pull off a deal for a starter.

The Mariners will likely want at least one of Nootbaar, Gorman, or Donovan, plus more, to acquire someone like Logan Gilbert. The White Sox will want a strong package for Dylan Cease, but I could see a more prospect-heavy package getting that deal done. The Marlins are going to want offense to add to their lineup, but again, I do not see it being worth giving up those core bats.

Just look at the postseason right now, left-handed hitting tends to help drive offenses toward success in October. Yes, you need a strong mix of talent, and the Cardinals have plenty of right-handed hitting with Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras, and Walker, but losing one or two of those left-handed bats could really set this lineup back significantly.

If I'm the front office, I'm looking for alternative ways to acquire that pitching. Whether it's prospects to the White Sox for Cease, or MLB-talent like Edman and Burleson to the Rays for Tyler Glasnow, or something else we cannot predict yet, I am exhausted every other scenario possible before giving up someone like Gorman, Nootbaar, or Donovan. It appears like the Cardinals feel the same way, and I am encouraged by that.

Donovan specifically is someone who I think won't carry quite as much value on the trade market as he would actually be providing for another team. Donovan is just scratching the surface of what he can be as a winning player, and the Cardinals would be making a huge mistake letting him go. The same could be said for Gorman and Nootbaar as well.