Breaking down Brendan Donovan's future with the St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals found a diamond in the rough in Brendan Donovan.

The 26-year-old utilityman just followed up a breakout rookie campaign with an excellent sophomore season, continuing to swing one of the best bats the Cardinals have while providing tremendous value plugging into almost every position defensively.

Since his debut in 2022, Donovan ranks 39th in all of baseball with a 124 wRC+, tied with Kyle Schwarber and ahead of guys like Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., Lars Nootbaar, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Adolis Garcia, Bryan Reynolds, Ozzie Albies, and the list goes on and on. His most elite tool as a hitter is his on-base ability, ranking 12th in MLB during that stretch with a .381 OBP.

I love myself some Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman, but statistically, it's hard to argue against Donovan being the best of the bunch at the plate thus far in their careers. Do those three have higher ceilings than Donovan? Probably. But Donovan has already shown the heights he can reach as a hitter, especially this past summer.

After getting off to a slow start at the plate in 2023, Donovan looked like one of the top-20 hitters in all of baseball from May 21st until being shut down with his elbow injury on July 29th, ranking tied for 17th in baseball with a 145 wRC+ on the back of a .316/.395/.489 slash line during that stretch. Even more impressively, he was nursing his elbow injury for the majority of that stretch, but his bat was so good that the Cardinals could confidently DH him every day.

If the individual numbers are not enough to show you just how valuable Donovan is, just look at the team's offensive rankings before and after Donovan was done for the season. Yes, there were other injuries and weird situations that impacted this as well, but it's clear the Cardinals' offense is a much better unit with Donovan in the lineup.

Nolan Arenado's back injury, Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar missing time, and plate appearances being increasingly given to guys who will not be on the Major League roster in 2024 contributed to this steep offensively decline, but it's obvious that losing a bat as impactful as Donovan's played a major role in this as well.

This offseason, the Cardinals are going to be looking to upgrade their pitching staff in a significant way, leading some to believe that Brendan Donovan could be a part of that equation through a trade. If anything, these numbers should give the Cardinals a ton of pause when it comes to the idea of letting someone like Donovan go this offseason, even in a trade for pitching that they desperately need.

I want to take a look at three different paths the Cardinals could have for Donovan in 2024 - locked into the outfield every day for them, being the super-utility man and DH, or becoming a trade asset in their pursuit of starting pitching. Each scenario has major implications for this Cardinals club both now and in the future, and I have my suspicions on what path they will choose for Donovan.

Path #2 - Everyday utility option, either at DH or filling in on the field

Should the Cardinals decide to land on a different primary center fielder than Lars Nootbaar, or they decide to trade Tommy Edman this offseason, I could see Donovan being needed as that "plug and play at a different position every day" guy.

If the Cardinals roll with Edman, Victor Scott II, Dylan Carlson, or a free agent/trade acquisition in center field, Nootbaar would be pushed to left field and Donovan would be left without a position on the diamond. That still works out great, as he can be the placeholder at DH each day, getting at-bats there when the whole starting nine is playing, or filling in at a position when guys get days off. Donovan's bat is plenty good enough to fill in there, and it works out great so pretty much whenever someone needs a day off, Donovan is rested and ready to fill in as the first option.

Edman's future plays a big role in this as well. If he's part of a trade to acquire a starting pitcher, the Cardinals would lose his versatility, making Donovan's all the more valuable. Sure, they will still have some mix of Carlson, Burleson, Saggese, Scott II, or even guys like Richie Palacios, Juan Yepez, or Luken Baker to fill roles, but Donovan is the far superior player at this point in his career.

While the Cardinals' best offensive alignment may include days when Donovan is in the outfield, it's likely that their best defense is on the field when Nootbaar is in left field and a more true center field talent is starting every day. With the regression the Cardinals saw from their defense in 2023, there is a strong argument that prioritizing that in a position like center field would be more beneficial than trying to maximize the offensive output each game. Personally, unless Scott II is ready for Opening Day, I think I'd prefer to see Nootbaar in center field, as he is league-average out there and the improved defense of Jordan Walker helps the outfield defense a ton.

Should the Cardinals make that decision in their outfield though, and/or Edman is traded, I do see why they'd like Donovan to be ready for something different each day. But that's the thing - every day. Regardless of the role they define for him, it needs to be every day. If the Cardinals do not get Donovan's bat and possibly glove in the lineup each day, I think they are doing a major disservice to Donovan and the team's success. This leads me to the third and least favorite of the scenarios - maximizing Donovan's value on the trade market.

Path #3 - Use Brendan Donovan to acquire a starting pitcher on the trade market

Most of us strongly anticipate the Cardinals acquiring a starting pitcher via trade this offseason. In Katie Woo's latest piece over at The Athletic (subscription required), she seemed to believe that Donovan was not going to be a piece they looked to move this offseason, but rather would be more open to trading Edman or Gorman, and would be most interested in moving Carlson, Burleson, O'Neill, Yepez, or Baker to acquire said pitching.

Frankly, unless the free agent market goes wild and only signing one guy is the wisest route for St. Louis, I just do not like the idea of them parting with any of Nootbaar, Donovan, or Gorman to bring in the pitching help they need. I would much rather have them dip into their farm system in a painful way, or use the value of a guy like Edman, Burleson, Carlson, or O'Neill to pull off a deal for a starter.

The Mariners will likely want at least one of Nootbaar, Gorman, or Donovan, plus more, to acquire someone like Logan Gilbert. The White Sox will want a strong package for Dylan Cease, but I could see a more prospect-heavy package getting that deal done. The Marlins are going to want offense to add to their lineup, but again, I do not see it being worth giving up those core bats.

Just look at the postseason right now, left-handed hitting tends to help drive offenses toward success in October. Yes, you need a strong mix of talent, and the Cardinals have plenty of right-handed hitting with Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras, and Walker, but losing one or two of those left-handed bats could really set this lineup back significantly.

If I'm the front office, I'm looking for alternative ways to acquire that pitching. Whether it's prospects to the White Sox for Cease, or MLB-talent like Edman and Burleson to the Rays for Tyler Glasnow, or something else we cannot predict yet, I am exhausted every other scenario possible before giving up someone like Gorman, Nootbaar, or Donovan. It appears like the Cardinals feel the same way, and I am encouraged by that.

Donovan specifically is someone who I think won't carry quite as much value on the trade market as he would actually be providing for another team. Donovan is just scratching the surface of what he can be as a winning player, and the Cardinals would be making a huge mistake letting him go. The same could be said for Gorman and Nootbaar as well.