Breaking down Brendan Donovan's future with the St. Louis Cardinals

Path #1 - Brendan Donovan as a primary outfielder in 2024

For as long as Brendan Donovan is as good as he is at filling in around the diamond for the Cardinals, they'll surely rotate him around the field as needed. But there is a strong argument for Donovan to settle in more in the outfield in 2024.

In 2022 and 2023, Donovan logged time at six different defensive positions, with second base and left field being the most prominent of them all. Based on how the roster is shaking out for the 2024 season though, it feels like he will see more and more time in the outfield and DH than he has in the past.

Nolan Gorman is an elite bat at second base and it's now his primary position. He will likely play there every day, with a few appearances filling in at third when Arenado has a day off or DH when he needs a breather himself. Donovan can still get time there, but unless Tommy Edman is dealt this offseason, that is a place he'll look to get games in as well.

Donovan has filled in at first base in 30 games for the Cardinals the last two years, and while he could still see time there as well, Alec Burleson is a candidate to get more opportunities. Shortstop is interesting to me because if Edman remains on the roster, I don't see Donovan finding time there, but if they do trade Edman for pitching, I could see Donovan being the backup shortstop to Winn.

With how the roster is structured right now, the infield is set, and two of the three outfield positions are set. It's really just the DH role and one of the outfield spots that need to be filled, and since Donovan is too good not to play every day, he could easily take one of those spots.

If the Cardinals want to maximize their offensive potential, having Donovan as the primary left fielder with Lars Nootbaar in center field and Jordan Walker in right field would be an excellent way to do that. While Donovan is just an average defensive outfielder, playing the position every day may help him improve more out there, and offensively, Donovan would have been the 30th ranked outfielder in baseball in wRC+ in 2023, and based on the way he was hitting during the summer, likely would have climbed those rankings even more so.

Donovan in left field allows the Cardinals to have someone like Alec Burleson get DH appearances more often, or even an up-and-coming prospect like Thomas Saggese. The weakest link in the lineup by far would then be Masyn Winn, and that is a strong lineup.

With the presence of Edman and possibly Saggese on the roster next year, I don't think there is as much of a need for Donovan to bounce around the diamond, especially if Edman does not have a defined everyday role. Should Edman be the primary center fielder though, or be off the roster entirely, I think the case for Donovan to be an "everyday utilityman" grows stronger, which we'll look at next.

Path #2 - Everyday utility option, either at DH or filling in on the field

Should the Cardinals decide to land on a different primary center fielder than Lars Nootbaar, or they decide to trade Tommy Edman this offseason, I could see Donovan being needed as that "plug and play at a different position every day" guy.

If the Cardinals roll with Edman, Victor Scott II, Dylan Carlson, or a free agent/trade acquisition in center field, Nootbaar would be pushed to left field and Donovan would be left without a position on the diamond. That still works out great, as he can be the placeholder at DH each day, getting at-bats there when the whole starting nine is playing, or filling in at a position when guys get days off. Donovan's bat is plenty good enough to fill in there, and it works out great so pretty much whenever someone needs a day off, Donovan is rested and ready to fill in as the first option.

Edman's future plays a big role in this as well. If he's part of a trade to acquire a starting pitcher, the Cardinals would lose his versatility, making Donovan's all the more valuable. Sure, they will still have some mix of Carlson, Burleson, Saggese, Scott II, or even guys like Richie Palacios, Juan Yepez, or Luken Baker to fill roles, but Donovan is the far superior player at this point in his career.

While the Cardinals' best offensive alignment may include days when Donovan is in the outfield, it's likely that their best defense is on the field when Nootbaar is in left field and a more true center field talent is starting every day. With the regression the Cardinals saw from their defense in 2023, there is a strong argument that prioritizing that in a position like center field would be more beneficial than trying to maximize the offensive output each game. Personally, unless Scott II is ready for Opening Day, I think I'd prefer to see Nootbaar in center field, as he is league-average out there and the improved defense of Jordan Walker helps the outfield defense a ton.

Should the Cardinals make that decision in their outfield though, and/or Edman is traded, I do see why they'd like Donovan to be ready for something different each day. But that's the thing - every day. Regardless of the role they define for him, it needs to be every day. If the Cardinals do not get Donovan's bat and possibly glove in the lineup each day, I think they are doing a major disservice to Donovan and the team's success. This leads me to the third and least favorite of the scenarios - maximizing Donovan's value on the trade market.

Path #3 - Use Brendan Donovan to acquire a starting pitcher on the trade market

Most of us strongly anticipate the Cardinals acquiring a starting pitcher via trade this offseason. In Katie Woo's latest piece over at The Athletic (subscription required), she seemed to believe that Donovan was not going to be a piece they looked to move this offseason, but rather would be more open to trading Edman or Gorman, and would be most interested in moving Carlson, Burleson, O'Neill, Yepez, or Baker to acquire said pitching.

Frankly, unless the free agent market goes wild and only signing one guy is the wisest route for St. Louis, I just do not like the idea of them parting with any of Nootbaar, Donovan, or Gorman to bring in the pitching help they need. I would much rather have them dip into their farm system in a painful way, or use the value of a guy like Edman, Burleson, Carlson, or O'Neill to pull off a deal for a starter.

The Mariners will likely want at least one of Nootbaar, Gorman, or Donovan, plus more, to acquire someone like Logan Gilbert. The White Sox will want a strong package for Dylan Cease, but I could see a more prospect-heavy package getting that deal done. The Marlins are going to want offense to add to their lineup, but again, I do not see it being worth giving up those core bats.

Just look at the postseason right now, left-handed hitting tends to help drive offenses toward success in October. Yes, you need a strong mix of talent, and the Cardinals have plenty of right-handed hitting with Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras, and Walker, but losing one or two of those left-handed bats could really set this lineup back significantly.

If I'm the front office, I'm looking for alternative ways to acquire that pitching. Whether it's prospects to the White Sox for Cease, or MLB-talent like Edman and Burleson to the Rays for Tyler Glasnow, or something else we cannot predict yet, I am exhausted every other scenario possible before giving up someone like Gorman, Nootbaar, or Donovan. It appears like the Cardinals feel the same way, and I am encouraged by that.

Donovan specifically is someone who I think won't carry quite as much value on the trade market as he would actually be providing for another team. Donovan is just scratching the surface of what he can be as a winning player, and the Cardinals would be making a huge mistake letting him go. The same could be said for Gorman and Nootbaar as well.