Blooming, bouncing back and breaking down: 2 Cardinals who fit each category

Spring Training is about two months away, but it's never too early to start making predictions on how the St. Louis Cardinals will fare. Before last season, I wrote an article about players who would improve and players who would slide. While I was correct about Nolan Gorman improving massively in 2023 and Paul Goldschmidt experiencing a fairly significant downturn, my predictions that Jack Flaherty and Tyler O'Neill would improve while Brendan Donovan would regress were not as prescient.

That being said, few could have predicted the disaster that befell the Cardinals in 2023. But with that dreadful season now in the rearview mirror, the St. Louis Cardinals are committed to improving in 2024, at least according to John Mozeliak. It's hard to imagine the pitching being as horrific as it was in 2023, as the team makes bona fide efforts to beef up its rotation over the offseason.

The Cardinals have several young players who look ready to take the next step, particularly on the offensive side. However, the Cardinals' pitching is significantly older, especially the rotation, which limits the upside of the arms. Along with the players prepared to break out, there are several rebound candidates for the Cardinals in 2024 after nearly every player had a down season by their standards. Finally, there are those who could decline from 2023, be it because of advancing age or stats that are likely unsustainable.

These six St. Louis Cardinals are likely to break out, bounce back, or regress in 2024.

Bounce-back candidates

Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado's numbers took a plunge last year, especially on the defensive side. At the plate, Arenado showed what was likely an age-related decline, as he hit .266 with 26 home runs, his lowest output in his three years with the Cardinals. In the field, Arenado did not approach the levels fans are accustomed to seeing from possibly the greatest defensive third baseman of all time.

Arenado was 11 runs below average at third base in 2023, by far the worst numbers of his career. But there's reason for optimism in 2024 after news emerged that Arenado's back had been bothering him all season, which could explain his drastic defensive downfall.

Arenado's offense may never return to the form he showed with the Colorado Rockies, but if he can still provide above-average results in the batter's box while rediscovering his otherworldly defensive skills, he will again be one of the most valuable assets to the Cardinals.

Giovanny Gallegos

A pedestrian 4.42 ERA and a high opposing hard-hit percentage of 46.2% marked a down season for Giovanny Gallegos, as the normally sturdy bridge to Ryan Helsley swayed more than usual in 2023. There were concerns that Gallegos, a notoriously slow worker, would have trouble adapting to the newly instituted pitch clock, but it turned out not to be a problem.

An explanation for Gallegos' struggles could be that he was tipping his pitches. If Gallegos has remedied this with the help of his team, he could easily get back to being one of the premier setup men in baseball. His age could start to become a bit of a concern, but since Gallegos relies more on location than velocity, the 32-year-old will likely age more gracefully than most of his bullpen cohorts.

With his exceptional chase and whiff rates still intact in his subpar 2023, Gallegos should be a prime bounce-back candidate in 2024 as the Cardinals look to get back into playoff contention.

Breakdown candidates

Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt, like Nolan Arenado, is getting up there in age. But unlike Arenado, Goldschmidt's defense looks to have permanently regressed, as he was only one defensive run above average in 2023, his worst output since 2012. Additionally, his batting average against fastballs was his lowest in the Statcast era at .241.

If Goldschmidt is unable to display his formerly elite defense, more pressure will be on him to perform offensively, but the 36-year-old is a candidate to take another step back given his age and aforementioned performance against fastballs. A potential ray of hope is that his expected batting average against fastballs was .272, which was actually higher than his XBA against them in his MVP 2022.

The Cardinals have reportedly been in talks with Goldschmidt about a contract extension, so the team clearly believes he still has gas in the tank. Goldschmidt didn't decline as massively as his metrics made me fear he would have last season, so fans should hope he ages gracefully as he plays what are likely his final few years in the league.

Miles Mikolas

The Cardinals have worked hard this offseason to improve their rotation, and it is undoubtedly stronger than it was at this point last offseason. One of the pitchers returning to the rotation is Miles Mikolas, who scuffled to a 4.78 ERA in 2023. His metrics on Baseball Savant are a frigid blue, and while he maintained his elite control, he had an expected opposing batting average of .291.

Mikolas had a few hot streaks in 2023, and as a fifth starter, he will likely be a passable option, but asking him to serve in a role requiring more than that could be asking for trouble. The Cardinals are trying to catch up with the rest of the league by pivoting away from hurlers like Mikolas who pitch to contact, as the elimination of the shift has made those types of pitchers dangerous to rely on.

The 35-year-old Mikolas has had an impressive run in St. Louis after his return from Japan in 2018, but we might have seen the first signs of a permanent decline for him in 2023. However, he is one of the few pitchers in today's game to reliably pitch around 200 innings, so if he is able to do that and eat innings to conserve the bullpen, 2024 could still be a success for The Lizard King.

The Cardinals knew what they needed to do in the offseason to improve in 2024, and with so many players having down years in 2023, the Cardinals are pinning their hopes on the idea that it can't be any worse than it was last season. Even if players such as Mikolas and Goldschmidt aren't able to replicate their prime years, the Cardinals should have enough reinforcements, breakouts and bounce-back seasons to weather those storms.