Best bang for your buck: revealing shortstop free agent values vs Cardinals

In the past three offseasons, the shortstop market has boomed in Major League Baseball. Players such as Javier Baez, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Zander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and even Dansby Swanson have fetched contracts well above $20 million annually.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals have stood pat with the players they have on the roster and in the minors. Relying on discounted players such as Tommy Edman and Paul DeJong has allowed the Cardinals to pass on these multi-million dollar contracts in the last two offseasons.

Many St. Louis fans have asked one question: did the Cardinals exceed value by avoiding these players, or did they miss out on wins? Fangraphs has a useful tool that provides the dollar value of a win. Site Expert Josh Jacobs used this figure last year when evaluating the best contracts in recent history. Frangraph's website describes this statistic very clearly.

In other words, the best description of the question that the valuation is answering is “how much would you expect to have to pay to replace this performance in free agency if you knew that you were going to get this level of value exactly?”

Let's start with finding the value of the two players currently on the roster: Edman and DeJong. Since 2019, Tommy Edman has been paid $6,074,557 in total. He has accumulated 16.2 WAR. Using the stat provided by Fangraphs, Edman would fetch around $115.8 million over the last 4.5 seasons. Tommy Edman has been a steal for the Cardinals. While he hasn't accumulated an All-Star amount of WAR, his value has been exceptional for the team. Edman's surplus value is around $109 million.

Paul DeJong is a different story. After a strong rookie and sophomore season, the Cardinals bought out his remaining arbitration and added a couple of years on at the end. The thought here was that DeJong could find a balance between his stellar offensive rookie season in 2017 and strong defensive sophomore season in 2018. This contract bought out all three pre-arbitration years and three arbitration years for Dejong. Mo and company believed that over those six years, DeJong would cost them more than $26 million in arbitration due to strong play. This was not the case, and the team will be happy to have his contract off the books at the end of this year.

Dejong has accumulated 11.5 WAR during the course of his contract, boosted primarily from 5.3 WAR in the 2019 season. On the open market, Dejong would have cost $83.6 million over his 6.5-year career. The Cardinals have paid him just over $23 million. Using these figures, DeJong's contract was a "good" deal, contrary to popular opinion. Pauly D has a surplus value of $60 million.

Let's take a look at the former free agents that were previously mentioned and see if the Cardinals found value in their players or if they could have received more production from dipping their toes into the free-agent market. Keep in mind that these values are all created in a vacuum in which it's assumed that all teams and owners would be willing to pay the salaries that the players have earned thus far in their careers. As we all know, the Dewitt family isn't always willing to pay big money for free agents even if they are star players.

Here's how the Cardinals' shortstops rank against the recent big name free agents in terms of value

Javier Baez

After the 2021 season, Javier Baez was signed to a six-year, $140 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. Along with Eduardo Rodriguez, Baez was signed to help the young stars that the Tigers had coming up through the ranks. Due to his clubhouse value, the Tigers were willing to sign him for a fair amount of money.

For his career, Baez has accumulated 24.5 WAR. He has earned $67 million thus far in his career. According to the Fangraphs value statistic, Baez would have fetched $196.3 million on the open market. This creates a surplus value of $129 million.

His surplus value is greater than those of both Edman and DeJong.

Marcus Semien

Marcus Semien was initially drafted by the Chicago White Sox and played three seasons there before being traded to the Oakland Athletics. He then spent six years with the A's followed by one season with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021. Semien was the second piece of the Texas Rangers infield plans when he was signed in the offseason of 2021.

For his career, Semien has accumulated 28.7 WAR in just over 12 seasons. He has been paid slightly less than $85 million for his career. Fangraphs estimates that his free agent value would be $229.3 million. This places his surplus value at $144.3 million.

Semien has been a greater value player than any of the previous players discussed so far.

Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts was a centerpiece in the Red Sox's pursuit of a World Championship in 2018. He spent the first ten seasons of his career in Boston and was beloved by the fanbase. After relations soured between the infielder and the front office during the 2022 season, Bogaerts signed with the San Diego Padres to the tune of an 11-year/$280 million contract.

Bogaerts has had a great career thus far. His career WAR total is 36.1 spread across 10.5 seasons. He has earned a smidge over $103 million. Fangraphs posits that his free agent value for his career is right around $289 million. Bogaerts's surplus value, according to Fangraphs, is $186 million.

Bogaerts passes Semien as the best value shortstop when compared to recent free agents and the infielders for the Cardinals.

Trea Turner

One of the most athletic players in baseball, Trea Turner is known primarily for his bat. His OPS+ is consistently over 120 and has topped out at 162. He was a stud for many years for the Washington Nationals, but he was traded to the Dodgers mid-season in 2021. Following the 2022 season, Turner was signed by the Phillies to a massive 11-year/$300 million contract.

Trea Turner has earned $73 million for his career, and he has been worth 32.8 WAR in his short, seven-year career. Fangraphs has his free agent value set at $262 million. His surplus value is $189 million.

Trea Turner, according to Fangraphs, has been the most valuable of the shortstops up to this point, slightly surpassing Xander Bogaerts.

Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa was drafted by the Houston Astros first overall in the 2012 draft. After just three seasons in the minors, Correa made his MLB debut for the team that drafted him. He remained with the team up through the 2021 season then signed with the Minnesota Twins in the offseason. He has been with the Twins ever since.

For his career, Correa has earned just under $98 million and has accrued 31.9 WAR. Fangraphs calculates that his free agent value for his career is $255.5 million. This places his surplus value at $157.5 million.

Correa hasn't been as valuable as players like Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner, but he has been more valuable than Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Tommy Edman, and Paul DeJong.

Dansby Swanson

Dansby Swanson was viewed as the fourth-best shortstop this past offseason. He was initially drafted first overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015 but was traded as a prospect to the Atlanta Braves. He spent seven years in Atlanta then signed with the Cubs. He has been known primarily for his defensive prowess, but he has shown the ability to lead an offense at times.

Swanson has been worth 18.9 WAR for his career and has earned $45 million up to this point. Fangraphs calculates his free agent value being $150.9 million. His surplus value is $105.9 million.

Dansby Swanson, according to Fangraphs, has only been more valuable than Paul DeJong. Even Tommy Edman has been more valuable than Swanson.

Conclusion

While the Cardinals haven't had the best shortstop in the last four seasons (or even the most valuable), they have been able to save money using the players their system has promoted. By avoiding expensive free agents and choosing to work with in-house players, the Cardinals have been able to save money that can be used in other places.

In the future, so long as the owners are willing to sign some checks, the Cardinals would find the most value for wins by dipping into the free-agent market.