Are the St. Louis Cardinals actually good at player development?

When it comes to building a major league roster, there are three primary ways: drafting and developing, free agency, and trading. Drafting and development leads to better trades should an organization decide to sell prospects for proven talent.

The St. Louis Cardinals typically don't spend in free agency, and they historically haven't made blockbuster trades (excluding Marcell Ozuna, Nolan Arenado, and Paul Goldschmidt in recent years). Therefore, the team must fill in a roster mostly through drafting and developing high school and college players. In recent years, the Cardinals have seen their prospects thrive in other cities (see Randy Arozarena, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and Adolis Garcia, to name a few). The front office has received some flak for these moves. On the flip side, however, the Cardinals traded prospects who aren't succeeding on other teams for superstars in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.

Deciding if a team is "good at developing talent" is a bit of a tricky question. How much do fans value the pieces received in trades from prospects? When does a player become a part of a team's development pipeline? If the Cardinals trade for a guy who is already in AAA, can they really take credit for his development?

In recent history, the Cardinals have really shied away from big-name free-agent signings and in-season blockbuster trades. Therefore, they have been able to keep their prospects and farm system stars. When looking at the rest of the league, how successful has this mold been?

Rookie Success

Another strong indicator of farm system success is how well the players perform once in the majors. The best way to evaluate this is by looking at Rookie of the Year voting. The last time the Cardinals had a Rookie of the Year recipient was 2001 (Albert Pujols, unsurprisingly), not very promising. However, the team has had ample finalists in recent years. Brendan Donovan was a finalist in 2022, Dylan Carlson was a finalist in 2021, Dakota Hudson placed fifth in 2019, Jack Flaherty and Harrison Bader placed fifth and sixth respectively in 2018, and Paul DeJong placed second in 2017. Those names are just from the last five years.

Going back through the last decade will reveal ample Cardinals' players who are in the top five of the Rookie of the Year voting each year. Keep in mind, the team has seen relative success in recent years, leading to late draft picks each year. It is a testament to a strong farm system that the team is able to bring up capable, talented players who contend for Rookie of the Year each year despite not being in the top-15 in the draft classes each year.

Professional Prospects

Perhaps the most telling sign of a strong farm system is how many players who were drafted and developed by the organization are in the major leagues right now. While there isn't a direct source that provides this data, you can look at previous draft classes and see what percentage of draft picks have made it to the major leagues.

For this exercise, we will only evaluate drafts from 2011-2019, as any later drafts open up the possibility of retirements and any players drafted since 2019 are very unlikely to have made it to the top level at this point. For comparison points, I will include the Guardians' and Athletics' numbers as well since they have the most and least amount of "homegrown" players according to Roster Resource in addition to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros, as they have been very successful in the draft lately. I will also exclude any players who are in the minors or players who were undrafted free agents that year. All stats are courtesy of Baseball Cube.

A few takeaways from this chart: the Dodgers are very good at drafting and developing, the Athletics are very bad, and 2016 was a fantastic year for the draft for many teams. While the Cardinals are not as good at promoting drafted players to the majors as the Dodgers, they are within one or two players each year of the Guardians and the Astros.

Conclusion

The Cardinals may not have the best farm system in the majors. Teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Braves, Guardians, and Rays excel at drafting and developing players. Creating a roster full of homegrown players requires a concerted effort between a lot of people. Scouts, management, minor league coaches, and hitting/pitching specialists must all coordinate their efforts. Furthermore, the players themselves must be committed to improving their play year after year.

The Cardinals have been able to use their prospects in major trades for many years, particularly this century. While some players have been traded and played well in other cities, the farm system has allowed the front office to acquire big names while not depleting the reinforcement too much.